St Helens
Wakefield Trinity
AI Win Probability
St Helens
50%
Wakefield Trinity
50%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Wakefield Trinity a marginal 50% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Wakefield Trinity ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Recent form favours Wakefield Trinity with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 4 for St Helens. The margin model predicts Wakefield Trinity by 5.6 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Wakefield Trinity to Win @1.98
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
Wakefield Trinity -5.6 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Wakefield Trinity 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
St Helens | R4W R5W R6L R7W R8W older → newer | 24.8 |
Wakefield Trinity | R4W R5W R6W R7W R8W | 28.8 |
Avg Conceded
25.6
St Helens
10.0
Wakefield Trinity
Avg Margin
-0.8
St Helens
18.8
Wakefield Trinity
Run Metres
1210
St Helens
1402
Wakefield Trinity
Clean Breaks
5.0
St Helens
6.8
Wakefield Trinity
ELO–Market Disagreement
St Helens hold the ELO advantage (1616 vs 1606), but the market favours Wakefield Trinity (@1.98).
The model sides with ELO, St Helens predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
50%
St Helens predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: -5.6