# St Helens v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Round 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Helens 18 – 12 Wakefield Trinity

_St Helens march all over Wakefield Trinity in a tight one._

Half time: 16 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Helens 50% / Wakefield Trinity 50% · The BrewDog Stadium · Sun, 26 Apr, 02:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — St Helens: Jake Davies (11' 1st), Kyle Feldt (17'), Tristan Sailor (30') · Wakefield Trinity: Tyson Smoothy (52'), Caius Faatili (64')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 50% | Won |
| Wakefield Trinity | 50% | Lost |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.6 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Helens vs Wakefield Trinity Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 9 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

St Helens 18–12 Wakefield Trinity in Super League Round 9 at The BrewDog Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr had Wakefield Trinity winning this by 5.6 points. St Helens won it by 6, the right margin on the wrong side of the ledger. Both picks missed, and the way the game actually played out explains why the model got the arithmetic close but the direction badly wrong.

The read wasn't unreasonable on paper. Wakefield came in on a five-game winning streak, averaging 28.8 points a game and conceding just 10. Their backs (1061) and halves (1033) rated well clear of St Helens' 843 and 870. St Helens, by contrast, were stuck on a modest 4-1 form line with a season average margin of minus 0.8. Nothing there suggested a 16-0 start was coming.

But that's exactly what happened. Jake Davies opened the scoring in the 11th minute, Jackson Hastings added the extras, and by the 18th minute St Helens led 12-0 through Kyle Feldt. Tristan Sailor made it 16-0 in the 30th. Wakefield, for all their form and firepower, didn't get on the board until the second half.

Once Tyson Smoothy crossed in the 52nd and Caius Faatili followed in the 64th, the gap that actually mattered was the one St Helens built before Wakefield woke up. Wakefield outscored them 12-2 from that point, closing to within six, but the 16-0 buffer was too much to chase down in the time left.

Look at the shape of the stat sheet and you can see both sides of the model's read playing out. Wakefield were the better side with ball in hand in the way the pre-match numbers suggested they'd be: more run metres (1,411 to 1,101), more line breaks (5 to 3), more tackle busts (33 to 30), and a lot more offloads (14 to 3). That's the Wakefield the ratings expected, the sharper attacking side finding gaps.

What the model didn't have an answer for was St Helens' discipline with the footy. Wakefield coughed it up 18 times to St Helens' 9, and every one of those errors is a missed chance to convert that metre advantage into points on the board. St Helens also came out ahead on penalties conceded, 3 to 4, another small edge that adds up over 80 minutes.

Hastings did the simple things well, a conversion after Davies, another after Feldt, then a penalty goal to push the lead to 18-6 just as Wakefield were finding their rhythm. Jack Sinfield kicked both Wakefield conversions but never got the chance to level things up.

Wakefield have the form line and the backline numbers to make anyone second-guess a home underdog. This week the early scoreboard did the talking instead. A tough one for the model to read, and a reminder that a five-game streak counts for nothing if you're staring down a two-score deficit before you've found your footing.

**Key Match Stats**

| St Helens | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 1,101 | Run metres | **1,411** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 30 | Tackle busts | **33** |
| 3 | Offloads | **14** |
| **9** | Errors | 18 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 4 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| St Helens | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 3/4 | Goals | 2/2 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 4 |
| 9 | Errors | 18 |

**Model Report Card**

St Helens defied the model's 50% prediction for Wakefield Trinity, a notable result. The predicted margin of 5.6 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. A tough result for the model, all 2 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (31/100) — penalties St Helens 3 · Wakefield Trinity 4.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wakefield Trinity to win — model probability 50.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Wakefield Trinity — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Wakefield Trinity 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wakefield Trinity by 6 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between St Helens and Wakefield Trinity. The model can't split them, landing on Wakefield Trinity at 50%. Form leans Wakefield Trinity's way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for St Helens.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Wakefield Trinity by 5.6, with the two sides combining for about 43. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 24.8pts | Avg Score | 28.8pts |
| 25.6pts | Avg Conceded | 10.0pts |
| -0.8pts | Avg Margin | 18.8pts |
| 1216.6m | Run Metres | 1408.6m |
| 5.0 | Clean Breaks | 6.8 |
| 306.2 | Tackles | 345.2 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | R4 W · R5 W · R6 L · R7 W · R8 W | 24.8 |
| Wakefield Trinity | R4 W · R5 W · R6 W · R7 W · R8 W | 28.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Helens lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Wakefield Trinity | 16 – 46 | St Helens | St Helens 52% ✓ |
| 2025 | R21 | Wakefield Trinity | 4 – 34 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R7 | St Helens | 26 – 14 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2025 | R3 | Wakefield Trinity | 6 – 26 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2023 | R24 | Wakefield Trinity | 16 – 32 | St Helens | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- St Helens' best path is the right edge: Super League's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.63 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 3rd there (0.75 conceded/game). Key man: Feldt, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.75 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 8th there (0.88 conceded/game). Key man: Johnstone, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | St Helens | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.63/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 0.88/g (def 8th) | 1.75/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 6th) |
| Middle | 2/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.88/g (def 7th) | 1/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1.63/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) | 2/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | St Helens | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 8 | 3 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 230m/g | 139m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.5/g | 4.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 92.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | St Helens | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 19 | 29 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 434m/g | 503m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.6/g | 10.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.4/g | 4.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.8% | 84.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | St Helens | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 2 | 3 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 296m/g | 350m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.9/g | 9.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.5% | 93.8% |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Fullbacks 0.36/g (lg 0.25) +44% · Centres 0.67/g (lg 0.48) +40% · Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.05) +20%
**Who scores on St Helens** — Five-Eighths 0.2/g (lg 0.2) +0% · Centres 0.42/g (lg 0.48) -12% · Wingers 0.82/g (lg 0.96) -15%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The BrewDog Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Sailor | FB | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 13/16g | 30% | — | 🏉 30' |
| 2 | Kyle Feldt | WG | 6 in 5g | 11/10g (2·0·0·1·2·1·1·2·1·1) | 3/2g | 11/12g | 75% | — | 🏉 17' |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/3g | 5/14g | 32% | — | — |
| 4 | Matt Whitley | CE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/18g | 6/27g | 8% | — | — |
| 5 | Owen Dagnall | WG | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/9g | 31% | — | — |
| 6 | Jackson Hastings | 5/8 | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 3/7g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Jonny Lomax | HB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 14/66g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | David Klemmer | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 13% | — | — |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·1·0) | 7/16g | 9/29g | 22% | — | — |
| 10 | Matty Lees | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 2/56g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Jake Davies | 2R | 1 in 5g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 13% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 12 | Shane Wright | 2R | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/8g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Shorrocks | LK | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/9g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Noah Stephens | INT | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 1/14g | 9% | — | — |
| 15 | George Delaney | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/34g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Alex Walmsley | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 10/58g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | George Whitby | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/8g | 3% | — | — |

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Rourke | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Oliver Pratt | WG | 10 in 6g | 10/6g (1·1·1·2·2·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 4 in 8g | 8/10g (3·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/5g | 1/4g | 38% | — | — |
| 4 | Corey Hall | CE | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 1/6g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Jayden Myers | WG | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| 6 | Jake Trueman | 5/8 | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 5/12g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Jack Sinfield | HB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/24g | 1/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Harvey Smith | HK | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| 10 | Tray Lolesio | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Seth Nikotemo | 2R | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 19% | — | — |
| 12 | Matty Storton | 2R | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/6g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Tyson Smoothy | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 15 | Ky Rodwell | INT | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Caius Faatili | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 14% | — | 🏉 64' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** St Helens hold the ELO advantage (1616 vs 1606), but the market favours Wakefield Trinity (@1.98). The model sides with ELO, St Helens predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Helens 1616 · Wakefield Trinity 1606 · ELO difference: 10 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | St Helens |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 50%** — St Helens predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)