York Knights
Toulouse Olympique
AI Win Probability
York Knights
66%
Toulouse Olympique
34%
AI Match Overview
York Knights are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Toulouse Olympique. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. The margin model predicts York Knights by 1.7 points with a combined total of 38.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
York Knights to Win @1.53
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
York Knights +1.7 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
York Knights 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 40.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
York Knights | R4L R5L R6L R7L R8L older → newer | 17.2 |
Toulouse Olympique | R4L R5L R6L R7L R8L | 15.6 |
Avg Conceded
27.8
York Knights
33.2
Toulouse Olympique
Avg Margin
-10.6
York Knights
-17.6
Toulouse Olympique
Run Metres
1363
York Knights
1143
Toulouse Olympique
Clean Breaks
4.6
York Knights
4.4
Toulouse Olympique
ELO–Market Disagreement
Toulouse Olympique hold the ELO advantage (1376 vs 1373), but the market favours York Knights (@1.53).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
York Knights predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 38 · Line: +1.7