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Super League | Round 9

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LNER COMMUNITY STADIUM • THURSDAY 23 APR, 10:00 AM AEST
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YRK

York Knights

3814
TO

Toulouse Olympique

✅ Model correct — backed York Knights at 66%

AI Win Probability

66%York KnightsFavourite

York Knights

66%

Toulouse Olympique

34%

AI Match Overview

York Knights are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Toulouse Olympique. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. The margin model predicts York Knights by 1.7 points with a combined total of 38.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

York Knights to Win @1.53

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

York Knights +1.7 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

York Knights 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
York Knights
R4L
R5L
R6L
R7L
R8L

older → newer

17.2
Toulouse Olympique
R4L
R5L
R6L
R7L
R8L
15.6

Avg Conceded

27.8

York Knights

33.2

Toulouse Olympique

Avg Margin

-10.6

York Knights

-17.6

Toulouse Olympique

Run Metres

1363

York Knights

1143

Toulouse Olympique

Clean Breaks

4.6

York Knights

4.4

Toulouse Olympique

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

Toulouse Olympique hold the ELO advantage (1376 vs 1373), but the market favours York Knights (@1.53).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

YRK
1373Overall1376
TO
ELO difference: -3 in favour of Toulouse Olympique

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

832Forwards746
Best: 1001YRK +86Best: 923
946Backs820
Best: 1103YRK +125Best: 915
750Halves771
Best: 750TO +20Best: 771
767Hooker762
Even

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

YRK
Stat
TO
0.0
Wins (Last 5)
0.0
17.2pts
Avg Score
15.6pts
27.8pts
Avg Conceded
33.2pts
-10.6pts
Avg Margin
-17.6pts
1363.0m
Run Metres
1142.8m
4.6
Clean Breaks
4.4
333.4
Tackles
325.6
8.8
Errors
10.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Knights
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Knights
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Olympique
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Olympique
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

66%

York Knights predicted to win by 2 points

Predicted total: 38 · Line: +1.7

2/4 match predictions correct