# York Knights v Toulouse Olympique — Super League Round 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: York Knights 38 – 14 Toulouse Olympique

_York Knights lay siege to Toulouse Olympique._

Half time: 18 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: York Knights 66% / Toulouse Olympique 34% · LNER Community Stadium · Fri, 24 Apr, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — York Knights: Paul Vaughan (8' 1st), Paul Vaughan (18' 1st), Scott Galeano (37'), Scott Galeano (54'), Kieran Buchanan (57'), Scott Galeano (72') · Toulouse Olympique: Thomas Lacans (33'), Henry O'Kane (66'), Mathieu Jussaume (75')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| York Knights | 66% | Won |
| Toulouse Olympique | 34% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.7 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**York Knights vs Toulouse Olympique Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 9 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

York Knights 38–14 Toulouse Olympique in Super League Round 9 at LNER Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two hundred and forty-six run metres was the difference between York Knights carrying the ball forward and Toulouse Olympique carrying it sideways, and it turned into a 38-14 scoreline at LNER Community Stadium. York finished with 1,453 run metres to Toulouse's 1,207. Forward dominance doesn't always show up that cleanly on the sheet, but here it did.

The shape of the game backs it up. York's forward pack rated at 832 against Toulouse's 746 coming in, and Paul Vaughan made that count early, scoring in the 8th minute and again in the 18th to have York out 12-0 before Toulouse troubled the scoreboard. Thomas Lacans got Toulouse on the board in the 33rd, but Scott Galeano's first try five minutes later had York in front 18-6 at the break. That's a 12-point buffer built on field position, not fortune.

Galeano was the story of the second half. He crossed again in the 54th and once more in the 72nd for a hat-trick, and each one came after York had already found separation. Kieran Buchanan's try in the 57th made it 28-6 and turned a comfortable lead into a rout. Toulouse got a consolation from Henry O'Kane in the 66th and Mathieu Jussaume right at the death in the 75th, but by then the margin was academic.

What's strange is Toulouse actually won the collision stats that usually decide these things. They put up 36 tackle busts to York's 20, nearly double. On another day that's the kind of number that drags a side back into a contest. It didn't here, because York looked after the ball far better, with only 10 errors to Toulouse's 14, and offloaded it more too, 9 to 5. Line breaks were even at 4 apiece, so York didn't need more chances than Toulouse. They just finished theirs.

Toulouse actually shaded the discipline count, giving away 3 penalties to York's 4, so it wasn't ill-discipline that beat them. It was execution with ball in hand and a backline mismatch that showed up all day, York's backs rated 946 against Toulouse's 820 pre-match, and that gap played out in the way York's outside men kept finishing sets.

For context, neither side arrived in form. Both were on five-game losing runs, York averaging 17.2 points scored and 27.8 conceded, Toulouse at 15.6 and 33.2. Neither number suggested a 38-point outing was coming, but York's superior run-metre average in that form line, 1370.4 to Toulouse's 1150.2, was at least a hint of what carried through.

Alphr's model backed York Knights at 66 percent and got the winner right. The margin was another matter. It had York up by just 1.7 points on a combined total of 38, and instead got a 24-point win inside a combined total of 52. Half-time at 18-6 was the giveaway that this wasn't shaping as a tight one, and the model didn't see it coming. One from two on this one: right team, wrong day by a distance.

**Key Match Stats**

| York Knights | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| **1,453** | Run metres | 1,207 |
| 4 | Line breaks | 4 |
| 20 | Tackle busts | **36** |
| **9** | Offloads | 5 |
| **10** | Errors | 14 |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **3** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| York Knights | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 3 |
| 7/7 | Goals | 1/3 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 10 | Errors | 14 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted York Knights to win at 66% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.7 but the actual margin was 24 points. York Knights led 18–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. The model went 1/2 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (11/100) — penalties York Knights 4 · Toulouse Olympique 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** York Knights to win — model probability 65.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** York Knights — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** York Knights 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: York Knights by 2 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on York Knights here: 66% to see off Toulouse Olympique.

York Knights own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has York Knights by 1.7, with the two sides combining for about 38. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back York Knights to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| York Knights | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 17.2pts | Avg Score | 15.6pts |
| 27.8pts | Avg Conceded | 33.2pts |
| -10.6pts | Avg Margin | -17.6pts |
| 1370.4m | Run Metres | 1150.2m |
| 4.6 | Clean Breaks | 4.4 |
| 333.4 | Tackles | 325.6 |
| 8.8 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| York Knights | R4 L · R5 L · R6 L · R7 L · R8 L | 17.2 |
| Toulouse Olympique | R4 L · R5 L · R6 L · R7 L · R8 L | 15.6 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Toulouse Olympique lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | Toulouse Olympique | 30 – 22 | York Knights | Toulouse Olympique 56% ✓ |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- York Knights' best path is the left edge: Super League's 11th-ranked left edge attack (0.5 tries/game) runs at a Toulouse Olympique defence ranked 14th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Galeano, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Toulouse Olympique's best path is the right edge: Super League's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.13 tries/game) runs at a York Knights defence ranked 10th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Jussaume, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | York Knights | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.5/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 9th) | 0.88/g (att 6th) · concedes 2/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.75/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.25/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0.88/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.63/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.75/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 10th) | 1.13/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | York Knights | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 4 | 0 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 106m/g | 139m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 4.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.6% | 90.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | York Knights | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 25 | 17 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 482m/g | 533m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.9/g | 20.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 3.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.1% | 80.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | York Knights | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 3 | 6 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 308m/g | 292m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.5/g | 6.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.3% | 92.8% |

**Who scores on Toulouse Olympique** — Locks 0.25/g (lg 0.05) +400% · Wingers 2/g (lg 0.96) +108% · Centres 1/g (lg 0.48) +108%
**Who scores on York Knights** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.05) +160% · Fullbacks 0.63/g (lg 0.25) +152% · Wingers 2/g (lg 0.96) +108%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at LNER Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**York Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mark Nofoaluma | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Scott Galeano | WG | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 33% | — | 🏉 37' 54' 72' |
| 3 | Sam Wood | CE | 3 in 7g | 5/10g (1·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 3/4g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Kieran Buchanan | CE | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 20% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 5 | Jon Bennison | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Cody Hunter | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Ata Hingano | HB | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Martin | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Paul McShane | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 16% | — | 🏉 8' 18' |
| 11 | Jesse Dee | 2R | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Oli Field | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Littlewood | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Xavier Va'a | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 13% | — | — |
| 16 | Sam Cook | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Josh Griffin | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 18% | — | — |

**Toulouse Olympique** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olly Ashall-Bott | FB | 5 in 8g | 5/8g (2·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| 1 | Oliver Ashall-Bott | FB | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Paul Ulberg | WG | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 3 | Reubenn Rennie | CE | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 4 | Luke Polselli | CE | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | — | — |
| 5 | Benjamin Laguerre | WG | 5 in 7g | 5/8g (0·0·1·0·1·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| 6 | Cesar Rouge | 5/8 | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 7 | Thomas Lacans | HB | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 8 | Lambert Belmas | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Brendan Hands | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Robert Butler | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Henry O'Kane | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 12 | Mathieu Jussaume | 2R | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·3·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 13 | Anthony Marion | LK | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Ellis Gillam | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | James Roumanos | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | AJ Wallace | INT | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Ajahni Wallace | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Toulouse Olympique hold the ELO advantage (1376 vs 1373), but the market favours York Knights (@1.53). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — York Knights 1373 · Toulouse Olympique 1376 · ELO difference: 3 in favour of Toulouse Olympique

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | York Knights |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | York Knights |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | York Knights |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — York Knights predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2026-r9-york-knights-v-toulouse-olympique
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)