Win Probability
Full TimeScoring Breakdown
Ref Watch
by AlphrFC had a +3 penalty advantage in a close contest. Error differential (10-13) also notable. Minor disparity worth monitoring but unlikely to have been decisive.
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Hull FC to win at 54% probability. The predicted margin of 0.3 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. Total score prediction of 38 was close to the actual 44, within 6 points. The model went 1/4 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Hull FC
54%
Catalans Dragons
46%
AI Match Overview
Hull FC hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though Catalans Dragons are far from out of this at 46%. The model sees Hull FC ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Venue Advantage. Hull FC carry a 27-point ELO rating advantage (1506 vs 1479).
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hull FC to Win @1.87
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
Catalans Dragons -0.3 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Catalans Dragons Draw @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 40.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hull FC | R1W R2L R3L R4L R5W older → newer | 18.4 |
Catalans Dragons | R1W R2L R3L R4W R5W | 27.3 |
Avg Conceded
22.1
Hull FC
23.4
Catalans Dragons
Avg Margin
7.9
Hull FC
4.3
Catalans Dragons
Run Metres
1545
Hull FC
1548
Catalans Dragons
Line Breaks
5.2
Hull FC
6.6
Catalans Dragons
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
54%
Hull FC predicted to win by 0 points
Predicted total: 38 · Line: -0.3