# Hull FC v Catalans Dragons — Super League Round 6 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull FC 24 – 20 Catalans Dragons

_Hull FC survive a scare against Catalans Dragons._

Half time: 22 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull FC 54% / Catalans Dragons 46% · MKM Stadium · Mon, 30 Mar, 01:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Hull FC: Arthur Romano (3' 1st), Lewis Martin (12'), Logan Moy (16'), Sam Lisone (25') · Catalans Dragons: Lenny Marc (59'), Leo Darrelatour (64'), Leo Darrelatour (69'), Charlie Staines (71')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull FC | 54% | Won |
| Catalans Dragons | 46% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.3 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull FC vs Catalans Dragons Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 6 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Hull FC 24–20 Catalans Dragons in Super League Round 6 at MKM Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull FC edged Catalans Dragons 24–20 at MKM Stadium. Hull FC led 22–0 at half-time and held on.

Arthur Romano opened the scoring; Hull FC crossed through Arthur Romano, Lewis Martin, Logan Moy and Sam Lisone; Catalans Dragons scored through Lenny Marc, Leo Darrelatour (2) and Charlie Staines.

Hull FC were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 10 times to 13. Hull FC made the hard metres, carrying for 1,360 run metres. Hull FC held the discipline edge, conceding 6 penalties to 9. In a 4-point arm-wrestle, those margins proved the difference.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull FC | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **1,360** | Run metres | 1,260 |
| 4 | Line breaks | 4 |
| **36** | Tackle busts | 32 |
| 9 | Offloads | **10** |
| **10** | Errors | 13 |
| **6** | Penalties conceded | 9 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull FC | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 4 |
| 4/5 | Goals | 2/4 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 9 |
| 10 | Errors | 13 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull FC to win at 54% probability. The predicted margin of 0.3 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. Total score prediction of 38 was close to the actual 44, within 6 points. A clean sweep, all 2 model picks hit for this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (37/100) — penalties Hull FC 6 · Catalans Dragons 9.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull FC to win — model probability 53.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Catalans Dragons — model probability 53.5% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hull FC 1-12 — model probability 53.5% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Catalans Dragons by 0 · Predicted total: 38

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull FC lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Catalans Dragons | 26 – 27 | Hull FC | Catalans Dragons 61% ✗ |
| 2025 | R27 | Hull FC | 22 – 26 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2025 | R13 | Catalans Dragons | 0 – 34 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2025 | R1 | Catalans Dragons | 4 – 24 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2024 | R27 | Hull FC | 4 – 24 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull FC's best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.2 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 3rd there (0.6 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the middle: Super League's 9th-ranked middle attack (1.6 tries/game) runs at a Hull FC defence ranked 3rd there (1.4 conceded/game). Key man: Staines, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull FC | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.2/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.8/g (def 6th) | 0.6/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.6/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.6/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.8/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 0.4/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.2/g (def 9th) | 0.6/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.2/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull FC | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 6th | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 2 | 2 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 60m/g | 111m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 1.4/g | 4.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.4% | 91.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull FC | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 10 | 7 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 521m/g | 471m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.4/g | 13/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.2/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.4% | 86.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull FC | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 2 | 4 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 325m/g | 204m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7/g | 4.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.6% | 90.6% |

**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.1) +70% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.17) +47% · Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.05) +40%
**Who scores on Hull FC** — Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Five-Eighths 0.27/g (lg 0.2) +35% · Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.17) +29%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MKM Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull FC** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Moy | FB | 0 in 1g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | 🏉 16' |
| 2 | Tom Briscoe | WG | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 9/18g | 3/22g | 22% | — | — |
| 3 | Arthur Romano | CE | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 16% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 7/20g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 3 in 5g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·2·0·0·1·2·0) | 5/6g | 22/28g | 54% | — | 🏉 12' |
| 6 | Zak Hardaker | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/22g | 3/18g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Jakob Arthur | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Ligi Sao | PR | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/9g | 2/38g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/15g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Harvie Hill | PR | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | James Bell | 2R | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Connor Bailey | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | John Asiata | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Lisone | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 3/7g | 10% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 15 | Brad Fash | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 2/43g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Matty Laidlaw | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/21g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Callum Kemp | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Staines | FB | 3 in 5g | 3/5g (1·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 60% | — | 🏉 71' |
| 2 | Nick Cotric | WG | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 3 | Lenny Marc | CE | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 4 | Solomona Faataape | CE | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| 5 | Leo Darrelatour | WG | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 64' 69' |
| 6 | Phoenix Laulu-togagae | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Phoenix Togagae | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Iszac Fa'asuamaleaui | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Alrix Costa | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Romain Navarrete | PR | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Benjamin Condon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Lipowicz | 2R | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Garcia | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Chris Satae | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 10/31g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Harvey Wilson | INT | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| 16 | Kruise Leeming | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Alexis Lis | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)