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Super League | Round 6

alphr.com.au

LNER COMMUNITY STADIUM • FRIDAY 27 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
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YRK

York Knights

1426
WAK

Wakefield Trinity

❌ Upset — model favoured York Knights at 50%

AI Win Probability

50%York KnightsFavourite

York Knights

50%

Wakefield Trinity

50%

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Wakefield Trinity a marginal 50% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Wakefield Trinity ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Wakefield Trinity carry a 54-point ELO rating advantage (1523 vs 1470). Recent form favours Wakefield Trinity with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for York Knights. The margin model predicts Wakefield Trinity by 4.7 points with a combined total of 44.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wakefield Trinity to Win @1.99

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Wakefield Trinity -4.7 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wakefield Trinity 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
York Knights
R1W
R2L
R3W
R4L
R5L

older → newer

20.4
Wakefield Trinity
R1L
R2W
R3L
R4W
R5W
16.4

Avg Conceded

28.2

York Knights

17.0

Wakefield Trinity

Avg Margin

-7.8

York Knights

-0.6

Wakefield Trinity

Run Metres

1147

York Knights

1211

Wakefield Trinity

Clean Breaks

3.2

York Knights

3.8

Wakefield Trinity

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

YRK
1470Overall1523
WAK
ELO difference: -54 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

949Forwards797
Best: 1219YRK +151Best: 1025
863Backs863
Best: 1013EvenBest: 1012
751Halves770
Best: 751WAK +20Best: 770
625Hooker1600
WAK +975

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

YRK
Stat
WAK
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
20.4pts
Avg Score
16.4pts
28.2pts
Avg Conceded
17.0pts
-7.8pts
Avg Margin
-0.6pts
1147.4m
Run Metres
1210.8m
3.2
Clean Breaks
3.8
322.8
Tackles
361.8
8.4
Errors
9.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Trinity
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Knights
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Trinity
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Trinity
5
Halves Control9.0%
Trinity
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

50%

York Knights predicted to win by 5 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: -4.7

3/4 match predictions correct