# York Knights v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Round 6 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: York Knights 14 – 26 Wakefield Trinity

_Wakefield Trinity edge York Knights._

Half time: 10 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: York Knights 50% / Wakefield Trinity 50% · LNER Community Stadium · Sat, 28 Mar, 07:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — York Knights: Sam Wood (13' 1st), Ben Jones-Bishop (34'), Nikau Williams (68') · Wakefield Trinity: Caleb Uele (30'), Oliver Pratt (38'), Tom Johnstone (56'), Tom Johnstone (74'), Oliver Pratt (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| York Knights | 50% | Lost |
| Wakefield Trinity | 50% | Won |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.7 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**York Knights vs Wakefield Trinity Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 6 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

York Knights 14–26 Wakefield Trinity in Super League Round 6 at LNER Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

York Knights and Wakefield Trinity went to the break locked at 10-12, a scoreline that undersold how scrappy the first forty had been. Sam Wood put York ahead early, Wakefield hit back through Caleb Uele, Ben Jones-Bishop restored the York lead, and Oliver Pratt levelled it before Max Jowitt's conversion edged Wakefield in front right on half-time. Two points in it. Anyone's game.

The second half told a completely different story. Wakefield scored four of the last five tries, starting with Tom Johnstone in the 56th minute to push the margin to six. Nikau Williams gave York a brief lifeline in the 68th, cutting it back to two points at 14-16, but Wakefield answered immediately. Johnstone's second try in the 74th, converted by Jack Sinfield, then Pratt's second in the 78th, closed it out at 26-14. Whatever York had going for them at the break, it evaporated once Wakefield found their rhythm after the restart.

Look at the collision stats and the result seems almost unfair. York carried for 1,444 running metres to Wakefield's 1,310, and the line break count was even, five each. On paper that's a platform for a home win. But tackle busts tell the real difference: Wakefield broke 37 tackles to York's 20, nearly double. That's the number that explains how a side with fewer metres and the same number of line breaks still ran away with it late. Errors were level at 10 apiece and penalties level at six, so this wasn't a discipline story either. It came down to what happened in the tackle, over and over.

The try list backs that up. Pratt and Johnstone scored twice each for Wakefield, doing the finishing work while York's three scorers, Wood, Jones-Bishop and Williams, each got one and had to make it count on their own. No combination, no repeat efforts. Wakefield had two players doing damage all night; York never had that same concentration of threat.

The pre-match numbers had flagged exactly this kind of split. York's forward pack rated well ahead of Wakefield's, 949 to 797, and the running-metre count on the night reflects that edge. But the hooker rating pointed the other way hard: 625 for York against 1,600 for Wakefield, about as lopsided as these ratings get. Combined with Wakefield's tackle-bust dominance, it lines up neatly with a game where York did the donkey work but Wakefield kept finding the offload, the half-break, the extra metre after contact.

Form coming in had Wakefield the more settled outfit, three wins from their last five to York's two, and their average points conceded sitting at 17 against York's 28.2. That gap showed up again here. York's attack found 14 points, more than useful, but their defence couldn't hold a Wakefield side that specialises in exactly this kind of late surge.

**Key Match Stats**

| York Knights | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| **1,444** | Run metres | 1,310 |
| 5 | Line breaks | 5 |
| 20 | Tackle busts | **37** |
| 8 | Offloads | **9** |
| 10 | Errors | 10 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| York Knights | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 5 |
| 1/3 | Goals | 3/5 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 10 | Errors | 10 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wakefield Trinity to win at 50% probability. The predicted margin of 4.7 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 40, within 4 points. Wakefield Trinity led 10–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 12. A clean sweep, all 2 model picks hit for this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (18/100) — penalties York Knights 6 · Wakefield Trinity 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wakefield Trinity to win — model probability 50.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wakefield Trinity — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wakefield Trinity 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wakefield Trinity by 5 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between York Knights and Wakefield Trinity. The model can't split them, landing on Wakefield Trinity at 50%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wakefield Trinity sit 54 ELO points clear, 1523 to 1470. Form leans Wakefield Trinity's way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for York Knights.

Wakefield Trinity own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The margin model has Wakefield Trinity by 4.7, with the two sides combining for about 44. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| York Knights | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 20.4pts | Avg Score | 16.4pts |
| 28.2pts | Avg Conceded | 17.0pts |
| -7.8pts | Avg Margin | -0.6pts |
| 1153.2m | Run Metres | 1232.2m |
| 3.2 | Clean Breaks | 3.8 |
| 322.8 | Tackles | 362.4 |
| 8.4 | Errors | 9.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| York Knights | R1 W · R2 L · R3 W · R4 L · R5 L | 20.4 |
| Wakefield Trinity | R1 L · R2 W · R3 L · R4 W · R5 W | 16.4 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Wakefield Trinity lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | Wakefield Trinity | 28 – 12 | York Knights | Wakefield Trinity 76% ✓ |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- York Knights' best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.2 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 4th there (1.6 conceded/game). Key man: Vaughan, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the right edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.4 tries/game) runs at a York Knights defence ranked 12th there (1.6 conceded/game). Key man: Tate, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | York Knights | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.4/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 10th) | 1.2/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 2.2/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 2.4/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0.6/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.6/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.8/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.6/g (def 12th (weak)) | 1.4/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.6/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | York Knights | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 2 | 0 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 88m/g | 129m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.2/g | 4.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.6% | 91.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | York Knights | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 15 | 13 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 501m/g | 454m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.8/g | 10.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.8/g | 2.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.9% | 82.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | York Knights | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 3 | 2 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 257m/g | 311m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.6/g | 6.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.9% | 92.2% |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Fullbacks 0.39/g (lg 0.25) +56% · Centres 0.67/g (lg 0.46) +46% · Hookers 0.12/g (lg 0.1) +20%
**Who scores on York Knights** — Locks 0.2/g (lg 0.05) +300% · Fullbacks 0.6/g (lg 0.25) +140% · Wingers 2/g (lg 0.93) +115%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at LNER Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**York Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toa Mata'afa | FB | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 2 | Ben Jones-Bishop | WG | 2 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·0·3·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 28% | — | 🏉 34' |
| 3 | Sam Wood | CE | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 9/11g | 2/2g | 22% | — | 🏉 13' |
| 4 | Nikau Williams | CE | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 68' |
| 5 | Mark Nofoaluma | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Ata Hingano | 5/8 | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 50% | — | — |
| 7 | Paul McShane | HB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Xavier Va'a | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Denive Balmforth | HK | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 22% | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Jesse Dee | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Josh Griffin | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Sam Cook | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Will Dagger | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Martin | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Justin Sangare | INT | 0 in 5g | 3/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Oli Field | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Jowitt | FB | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 2 | Oliver Pratt | WG | 3 in 3g | 3/3g (1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | 🏉 38' 78' |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 2 in 5g | 7/10g (0·0·1·3·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| 4 | Corey Hall | CE | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 44% | — | 🏉 56' 74' |
| 6 | Jake Trueman | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Jack Sinfield | HB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Tyson Smoothy | HK | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Ky Rodwell | PR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 11 | Isaiah Vagana | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 12 | Matty Storton | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Jazz Tevaga | LK | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 14 | Jay Pitts | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 30' |
| 16 | Caius Faatili | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| 17 | Harvey Smith | INT | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — York Knights 1470 · Wakefield Trinity 1523 · ELO difference: 54 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | York Knights |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 50%** — York Knights predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)