York Knights
Wakefield Trinity
AI Win Probability
York Knights
50%
Wakefield Trinity
50%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Wakefield Trinity a marginal 50% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Wakefield Trinity ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Wakefield Trinity carry a 54-point ELO rating advantage (1523 vs 1470). Recent form favours Wakefield Trinity with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for York Knights. The margin model predicts Wakefield Trinity by 4.7 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Wakefield Trinity to Win @1.99
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
Wakefield Trinity -4.7 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Wakefield Trinity 1-12 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
York Knights | R1W R2L R3W R4L R5L older → newer | 20.4 |
Wakefield Trinity | R1L R2W R3L R4W R5W | 16.4 |
Avg Conceded
28.2
York Knights
17.0
Wakefield Trinity
Avg Margin
-7.8
York Knights
-0.6
Wakefield Trinity
Run Metres
1147
York Knights
1211
Wakefield Trinity
Clean Breaks
3.2
York Knights
3.8
Wakefield Trinity
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
50%
York Knights predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: -4.7