# Leigh Leopards v Toulouse Olympique — Super League Round 6 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leigh Leopards 21 – 20 Toulouse Olympique

_Leigh Leopards edge Toulouse Olympique in a one-point thriller._

Half time: 20 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leigh Leopards 71% / Toulouse Olympique 29% · Leigh Sports Village Stadium · Sun, 29 Mar, 04:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Leigh Leopards: Josh Charnley (1' 1st), Innes Senior (14'), Josh Charnley (18' 1st), Liam Horne (30') · Toulouse Olympique: Romeo Tropis (36'), Benjamin Laguerre (49'), Benjamin Laguerre (56')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 71% | Won |
| Toulouse Olympique | 29% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.1 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leigh Leopards vs Toulouse Olympique Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 6 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Leigh Leopards 21–20 Toulouse Olympique in Super League Round 6 at Leigh Sports Village Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Toulouse Olympique ran for more of the field than Leigh Leopards, 1,330 metres to 1,230, and offloaded the ball more too, 7 times to 4. Leigh Leopards didn't bother matching that. They just held onto it. Six errors to eleven tells you which side was playing with the handbrake on and which side was chasing ambition at the cost of security. Leigh Leopards won 21-20.

That contrast explains the whole shape of the game. Leigh built a lead out of discipline and directness rather than volume, and by halftime it was 20-6. Josh Charnley opened the scoring inside the first minute, Innes Senior added one at 14', Charnley grabbed his second at 18', and Liam Horne crossed at 30' to make it 20-0 before Toulouse got on the board through Romeo Tropis right on the back end of the half.

Then Toulouse started playing like Toulouse. Benjamin Laguerre scored either side of the hour, at 49' and 56', and Jake Shorrocks slotted every conversion he was given plus a penalty goal in the 79th minute to drag the scores level at 20-20. That's four unanswered scoring plays from the visitors across the second half, built on exactly the kind of ambitious, expansive footy their metres and offload numbers suggest. It just came up one point short, because Adam Cook's earlier conversions had Leigh a point clear when the clock ran out.

The line break count backs up the story. Leigh broke the line seven times to Toulouse's five, working off a backline rated 958 against Toulouse's 780 coming in and a halves pairing rated 940 to 839. When your spine is that much stronger on paper, the sharper edges in broken play tend to show up exactly where they did, in tries rather than raw territory.

Toulouse's issue wasn't ambition, it was cost. Eleven errors is a lot to spend when you're already trying to come from 20 points down, and the penalty count, 5 to Leigh's 4, meant they were rarely getting the head start field position that a comeback like that needs. Their recent form had them winning more of their last five than Leigh, two from five to one from five, and outscoring them on average, but none of that matters when the concession column reads eleven errors against six.

Leigh's tackle busts, 30 to 28, were close enough to call a wash, so this wasn't really a game decided by collisions. It was decided by who kept the ball and who didn't, and by a 20-point head start that gave Leigh's forward pack, rated 863 to 793 pre-match, enough buffer to survive being outmuscled for territory in the second half.

Alphr's model had Leigh Leopards at 71 percent to win, expected them by 6.1, and picked a combined total of 44. The actual margin was 1, the actual total 41. Not a bullseye on the margin, but the right side won and the total landed within 3 points, so both picks for this one hit.

Leigh Leopards will take it as a squeaker they controlled early and nearly lost late. Toulouse Olympique will look at those metres and offloads and wonder how they didn't have enough to show for it.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 1,230 | Run metres | **1,330** |
| **7** | Line breaks | 5 |
| **30** | Tackle busts | 28 |
| 4 | Offloads | **7** |
| **6** | Errors | 11 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 3 |
| 2/4 | Goals | 4/4 |
| 1 | Field Goals | 0 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 6 | Errors | 11 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leigh Leopards to win at 71% probability. The predicted margin of 6.1 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 41, within 3 points. A clean sweep, all 2 model picks hit for this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (34/100) — penalties Leigh Leopards 4 · Toulouse Olympique 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 70.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 6 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leigh Leopards here: 71% to see off Toulouse Olympique. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leigh Leopards sit 57 ELO points clear, 1498 to 1442. Form leans Toulouse Olympique's way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Leigh Leopards.

Leigh Leopards own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Leigh Leopards by 6.1, with the two sides combining for about 44. Leigh Leopards to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 14.8pts | Avg Score | 16.0pts |
| 25.6pts | Avg Conceded | 22.4pts |
| -10.8pts | Avg Margin | -6.4pts |
| 1117.8m | Run Metres | 1212.2m |
| 3.2 | Clean Breaks | 5.8 |
| 337.8 | Tackles | 302.8 |
| 8.4 | Errors | 11.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | R1 W · R2 L · R3 L · R4 L · R5 L | 14.8 |
| Toulouse Olympique | R1 W · R2 W · R3 L · R4 L · R5 L | 16.0 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Leigh Leopards lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R16 | Toulouse Olympique | 16 – 40 | Leigh Leopards | Leigh Leopards 72% ✓ |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the right edge: Super League's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.2 tries/game) runs at a Toulouse Olympique defence ranked 11th there (1.4 conceded/game). Key man: Senior, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Toulouse Olympique's best path is the middle: Super League's 10th-ranked middle attack (1.2 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 14th there (2.8 conceded/game). Key man: Ashall-Bott, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leigh Leopards | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.4/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 0.4/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.8/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.6/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.2/g (att 10th) · concedes 2.8/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.2/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.2/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1.2/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.8/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.4/g (def 11th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 6 | 0 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 83m/g | 117m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.4/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.9% | 90.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 6th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 8 | 12 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 556m/g | 539m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.6/g | 21.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.8/g | 3.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.8% | 80.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 5 | 3 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 339m/g | 307m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.8/g | 6.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 92.1% |

**Who scores on Toulouse Olympique** — Locks 0.2/g (lg 0.05) +300% · Centres 1.2/g (lg 0.47) +155% · Wingers 1.6/g (lg 0.94) +70%
**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.05) +20% · Halfbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.17) +12% · Props 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Leigh Sports Village Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gareth O'Brien | FB | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 2 | Innes Senior | WG | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 3/2g | 2/2g | 38% | — | 🏉 14' |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Jack Hughes | CE | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/1g | 0/2g | 38% | — | 🏉 1' 18' |
| 6 | Adam Cook | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Lam | HB | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Aaron Pene | PR | no games | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Ben McNamara | HK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Alick-Wiencke | 2R | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| 14 | Louis Brogan | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Matty Davis | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Ryan Brown | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Liam Horne | INT | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 14% | — | 🏉 30' |

**Toulouse Olympique** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olly Ashall-Bott | FB | 4 in 5g | 4/5g (2·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| 1 | Oliver Ashall-Bott | FB | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Luke Polselli | WG | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 3 | Reubenn Rennie | CE | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (0·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Romeo Tropis | CE | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | 🏉 36' |
| 5 | Benjamin Laguerre | WG | 3 in 5g | 3/6g (0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 49' 56' |
| 6 | Jake Shorrocks | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 7 | Cesar Rouge | HB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Lambert Belmas | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 9 | Brendan Hands | HK | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Tyler Dupree | PR | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/11g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Maxime Stefani | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Mathieu Jussaume | 2R | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| 13 | Anthony Marion | LK | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 14 | Joe Cator | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Robert Butler | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | AJ Wallace | INT | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Ajahni Wallace | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Ellis Gillam | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leigh Leopards 1498 · Toulouse Olympique 1442 · ELO difference: 57 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 71%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)