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Super League | Round 6

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LEIGH SPORTS VILLAGE STADIUM • SATURDAY 28 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
LEI

Leigh Leopards

2120
TO

Toulouse Olympique

✅ Model correct — backed Leigh Leopards at 71%

AI Win Probability

71%Leigh LeopardsFavourite

Leigh Leopards

71%

Toulouse Olympique

29%

AI Match Overview

Leigh Leopards are clear favourites here at 71%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Toulouse Olympique. The model sees Leigh Leopards ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Leigh Leopards carry a 57-point ELO rating advantage (1498 vs 1442). Recent form favours Toulouse Olympique with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Leigh Leopards. The margin model predicts Leigh Leopards by 6.1 points with a combined total of 44.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leigh Leopards to Win @1.41

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Leigh Leopards +6.1 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leigh Leopards 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leigh Leopards
R1W
R2L
R3L
R4L
R5L

older → newer

14.8
Toulouse Olympique
R1W
R2W
R3L
R4L
R5L
16.0

Avg Conceded

25.6

Leigh Leopards

22.4

Toulouse Olympique

Avg Margin

-10.8

Leigh Leopards

-6.4

Toulouse Olympique

Run Metres

1110

Leigh Leopards

1205

Toulouse Olympique

Clean Breaks

3.2

Leigh Leopards

5.8

Toulouse Olympique

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEI
1498Overall1442
TO
ELO difference: +57 in favour of Leigh Leopards

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

863Forwards793
Best: 1207LEI +70Best: 1076
958Backs780
Best: 1131LEI +178Best: 859
940Halves839
Best: 940LEI +101Best: 839
673Hooker687
TO +13

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEI
Stat
TO
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
14.8pts
Avg Score
16.0pts
25.6pts
Avg Conceded
22.4pts
-10.8pts
Avg Margin
-6.4pts
1110.4m
Run Metres
1204.8m
3.2
Clean Breaks
5.8
337.8
Tackles
302.8
8.4
Errors
11.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Leopards
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Leopards
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Leopards
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Olympique
5
Halves Control9.0%
Leopards
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

71%

Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: +6.1

4/4 match predictions correct