# Castleford Tigers v Bradford Bulls — Super League Round 6 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Castleford Tigers 40 – 28 Bradford Bulls

_Castleford Tigers maul Bradford Bulls._

Half time: 22 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Castleford Tigers 44% / Bradford Bulls 56% · The OneBore Stadium · Fri, 27 Mar, 07:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Castleford Tigers: Jason Qareqare (6'), Jason Qareqare (24'), Darnell McIntosh (37'), Jason Qareqare (39'), George Lawler (41'), Tom Weaver (44'), Darnell McIntosh (50') · Bradford Bulls: Esan Marsters (1' 1st), Joe Mellor (31'), Luke Hooley (59'), Esan Marsters (78' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford Bulls | 56% | Lost |
| Castleford Tigers | 44% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 10.3 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Castleford Tigers vs Bradford Bulls Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 6 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Castleford Tigers 40–28 Bradford Bulls in Super League Round 6 at The OneBore Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Bradford Bulls did plenty right early and still walked out of The OneBore with nothing to show for it. Esan Marsters crossed inside the first minute, Luke Hooley converted and added two penalty goals, and by the 20th minute the Bulls led 10-6. Given the pre-match numbers, that start made sense. Bradford came in with the stronger forward pack (1015 to 732) and a big edge in the halves (1183 to 656), and their season form had them at three wins from five against Castleford's one.

The problem was turning early control into a lead that stuck. Bradford racked up 12 offloads to Castleford's 3, proof they were happy to keep the ball alive, but it didn't translate into line breaks or clean metres. They managed just 4 line breaks and 14 tackle busts, against 8 and 27 for the Tigers, and were outrun 1,335 metres to 1,219. All that ball-in-hand stuff looked good on the highlights reel, it just didn't move the scoreboard.

Castleford answered the way the stat sheet suggests they could. Jason Qareqare crossed twice before half-time, either side of a Joe Mellor try that had briefly nudged Bradford back in front at 12-14, and Darnell McIntosh's try in the 37th minute levelled it at 16-16 before Tom Weaver's boot put the Tigers 18-16 up at the break. Castleford led 22-16 at half-time, and from there the contest tipped hard.

Whatever went wrong in that stretch either side of the break, Bradford couldn't stop it. Qareqare's third try arrived in the 39th minute, George Lawler and Weaver himself both crossed either side of the hour mark, and by the 51st minute it was 40-16. Four tries in twelve minutes will do that to a scoreline. McIntosh's second in the 50th minute was the exclamation point on a run Bradford had no answer for.

To their credit, the Bulls didn't fold completely. Hooley scored and converted in the 59th minute, and Marsters grabbed his second in the 78th to drag the final margin back to 40-28. It made the scoreboard look more respectable than the middle third of the game suggested, but 12 points still separated the sides at the finish.

Discipline was the one column Bradford won, conceding 9 penalties to Castleford's 11, and errors were dead level at 9 apiece. Neither mattered much next to an 8-4 line break count and a 27-14 gap in tackle busts, the kind of numbers that decide games regardless of who's cleaner at marker.

Alphr's model had Bradford Bulls favourites at 56 percent, expecting them to win by 10.3 in a game totalling 47 points. Instead Castleford won by 12, and the two sides put up 68 between them, 21 more than tipped. Bradford's form and personnel edges were real. On the day, none of it showed up where it counted.

**Key Match Stats**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| **1,335** | Run metres | 1,219 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **27** | Tackle busts | 14 |
| 3 | Offloads | **12** |
| 9 | Errors | 9 |
| 11 | Penalties conceded | **9** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 4 |
| 6/7 | Goals | 6/6 |
| 11 | Penalties Conceded | 9 |
| 9 | Errors | 9 |

**Model Report Card**

Castleford Tigers defied the model's 56% prediction for Bradford Bulls, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.3 but the actual margin was 12 points. The game's 68 points came in 21 points higher than the predicted 47. A tough result for the model, all 2 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (28/100) — penalties Castleford Tigers 11 · Bradford Bulls 9.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bradford Bulls to win — model probability 55.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Bradford Bulls — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Bradford Bulls 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bradford Bulls by 10 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Bradford Bulls are the call at 56%, but Castleford Tigers stay live at 44%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Bradford Bulls sit 220 ELO points clear, 1527 to 1307. Form leans Bradford Bulls' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Castleford Tigers.

Bradford Bulls own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Bradford Bulls by 10.3, with the two sides combining for about 47. Lean Bradford Bulls, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 14.4pts | Avg Score | 22.8pts |
| 30.4pts | Avg Conceded | 16.6pts |
| -16.0pts | Avg Margin | 6.2pts |
| 1026.6m | Run Metres | 1199.4m |
| 4.6 | Clean Breaks | 4.8 |
| 315.6 | Tackles | 334.2 |
| 9.4 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | R1 L · R2 L · R3 W · R4 L · R5 L | 14.4 |
| Bradford Bulls | R1 L · R2 W · R3 W · R4 L · R5 W | 22.8 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Bradford Bulls lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Bradford Bulls | 32 – 22 | Castleford Tigers | Castleford Tigers 51% ✗ |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the left edge: Super League's 11th-ranked left edge attack (0.4 tries/game) runs at a Bradford Bulls defence ranked 9th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Valemei, 1 tries in that channel this season.
- Bradford Bulls' best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 13th there (1.6 conceded/game). Key man: Ryan, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Castleford Tigers | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.4/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.6/g (def 13th (weak)) | 2/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.6/g (att 7th) · concedes 2/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.2/g (att 10th) · concedes 1/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 0.6/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.8/g (def 13th (weak)) | 0.6/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.8/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 2 | 5 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 75m/g | 202m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 6.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.6% | 91.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 13 | 13 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 386m/g | 547m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.8/g | 17.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.8/g | 2.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.9% | 82% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 7 | 1 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 263m/g | 308m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.4/g | 5.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.7% | 94.9% |

**Who scores on Bradford Bulls** — Locks 0.4/g (lg 0.05) +700% · 2nd Rows 0.6/g (lg 0.26) +131% · Centres 0.6/g (lg 0.46) +30%
**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.05) +180% · Fullbacks 0.42/g (lg 0.25) +68% · 2nd Rows 0.41/g (lg 0.26) +58%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The OneBore Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zac Cini | FB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 2 | Semi Valemei | WG | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| 3 | Darnell Mcintosh | CE | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 22% | — | 🏉 37' 50' |
| 4 | Krystian Mapapalangi | CE | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 25% | — | — |
| 5 | Balami Qareqare | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Daejarn Asi | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Thomas Weaver | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Renouf Atoni | PR | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Thomas Forber | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Joe Westerman | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Jordan Lane | 2R | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | George Hirst | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | George Lawler | LK | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 16% | — | 🏉 41' |
| 14 | Brock Greacen | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Aiden Doolan | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Sam Hall | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Jimmy Beckett | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Bradford Bulls** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caleb Aekins | FB | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 2 | Luke Hooley | WG | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 19% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 3 | Esan Marsters | CE | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 1' 78' |
| 4 | Waqa Blake | CE | 4 in 4g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0) | 3/2g | 0/0g | 39% | — | — |
| 5 | Ethan Ryan | WG | 4 in 4g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·3·1·0) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 6 | Jayden Nikorima | 5/8 | 2 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Rowan Milnes | HB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Ryan Sutton | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Andy Ackers | HK | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Loghan Lewis | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Ed Chamberlain | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 12 | Leon Ruan | 2R | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Mellor | LK | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 14 | Christopher Atkin | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Ormondroyd | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Sam Hallas | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Samuel Hallas | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Phoenix Steinwede | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Castleford Tigers 1307 · Bradford Bulls 1527 · ELO difference: 220 in favour of Bradford Bulls

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 56%** — Bradford Bulls predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)