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Super League | Round 6

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THE ONEBORE STADIUM • THURSDAY 26 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
CAS

Castleford Tigers

4028
BRD

Bradford Bulls

❌ Upset — model favoured Bradford Bulls at 56%

AI Win Probability

56%Bradford BullsFavourite

Castleford Tigers

44%

Bradford Bulls

56%

AI Match Overview

Bradford Bulls hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Castleford Tigers are far from out of this at 44%. The model sees Bradford Bulls ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Bradford Bulls carry a 220-point ELO rating advantage (1527 vs 1307). Recent form favours Bradford Bulls with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts Bradford Bulls by 10.3 points with a combined total of 47.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Bradford Bulls to Win @1.79

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Bradford Bulls -10.3 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Bradford Bulls 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Castleford Tigers
R1L
R2L
R3W
R4L
R5L

older → newer

14.4
Bradford Bulls
R1L
R2W
R3W
R4L
R5W
22.8

Avg Conceded

30.4

Castleford Tigers

16.6

Bradford Bulls

Avg Margin

-16.0

Castleford Tigers

6.2

Bradford Bulls

Run Metres

1020

Castleford Tigers

1193

Bradford Bulls

Clean Breaks

4.6

Castleford Tigers

4.8

Bradford Bulls

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CAS
1307Overall1527
BRD
ELO difference: -220 in favour of Bradford Bulls

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

732Forwards1015
Best: 872BRD +283Best: 1321
627Backs737
Best: 646BRD +110Best: 829
656Halves1183
Best: 656BRD +527Best: 1183
868Hooker1051
BRD +182

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CAS
Stat
BRD
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
14.4pts
Avg Score
22.8pts
30.4pts
Avg Conceded
16.6pts
-16.0pts
Avg Margin
6.2pts
1019.6m
Run Metres
1192.6m
4.6
Clean Breaks
4.8
315.6
Tackles
334.2
9.4
Errors
11.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Bulls
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Bulls
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Bulls
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Bulls
5
Halves Control9.0%
Bulls
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

56%

Bradford Bulls predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 47 · Line: -10.3

1/4 match predictions correct