# Hull KR v St Helens — Super League Round 6 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 52 – 10 St Helens

_Hull KR outfox St Helens._

Half time: 30 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 52% / St Helens 48% · Sewell Group Craven Park · Sat, 28 Mar, 07:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Joe Burgess (1' 1st), Mikey Lewis (10'), Jez Litten (23'), Joe Burgess (25' 1st), Mikey Lewis (32'), Joe Burgess (47' 1st), Mikey Lewis (52'), James Batchelor (55'), Jai Whitbread (61') · St Helens: Owen Dagnall (41'), Shane Wright (71')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 52% | Won |
| St Helens | 48% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.5 predicted → 42 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 6 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Hull KR 52–10 St Helens in Super League Round 6 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Seven hundred and thirty-four run metres. That's the gap between Hull KR's 1,363 and St Helens' 629, and it tells you almost everything about how Hull KR ended up winning 52-10 at Sewell Group Craven Park.

Joe Burgess opened the scoring inside the first minute and Hull KR never looked back. By the 34th minute they led 30-0, courtesy of tries to Burgess, Mikey Lewis and Jez Litten, with Lewis slotting everything he had a boot on. St Helens finally got on the board through Owen Dagnall right on half-time to make it 30-4, but that was as close as it got. Hull KR simply kept coming, adding five more tries after the break through Burgess again, Lewis twice more, James Batchelor and Jai Whitbread, before Shane Wright's late try and a Jackson Hastings conversion tidied up the scoreboard for St Helens at 52-10.

Mikey Lewis had the sort of afternoon that wins games on its own. Three tries plus the goal-kicking, and he was central to the 7 line breaks Hull KR racked up against just 2 for St Helens. Joe Burgess matched him with a hat-trick of his own, the first man to get on the board and the last Hull KR man to score before Wright's consolation. Between them they accounted for six of Hull KR's nine tries.

The tackle bust count, 35 to 20, backs up what the eye test suggested: Hull KR were finding space and getting through it, St Helens were making try-savers all day. Discipline mattered too. Hull KR conceded just 2 penalties, St Helens gave away 7, and every extra set of hands St Helens needed in defence was a set they didn't have going forward.

St Helens weren't sloppy with the ball, in fairness. They coughed it up 8 times to Hull KR's 10, and even shaded the offload count 7 to 5. But none of that matters much when you're getting out-metred by more than two to one and conceding line breaks at more than three times the rate. Clean hands with no go-forward is just a tidier way of standing still.

The positional numbers going in flagged St Helens as the stronger side almost everywhere, forwards 967 to 759, backs 971 to 772, even the halves battle marginally in their favour. St Helens had also won four of their last five. None of it showed up on the day. Hull KR's one clear positional edge, at hooker, 1303 to 958, turned out to be the one that counted, with Lewis running the game from dummy-half straight through St Helens' line all afternoon.

Alphr's model had Hull KR as 52% favourites, so the win was there in the numbers. The margin wasn't. St Helens were tipped to win by 4.5 on a combined total of 35 points. Instead Hull KR won by 42, and the game produced 62 points on its own. One from two on this one, and a reminder that picking the winner and picking the story are two very different jobs.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| **1,363** | Run metres | 629 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **35** | Tackle busts | 20 |
| 5 | Offloads | **7** |
| 10 | Errors | **8** |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 7 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tries | 1 |
| 8/10 | Goals | 1/2 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 7 |
| 10 | Errors | 8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 52% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.5 but the actual margin was 42 points. The game's 62 points came in 27 points higher than the predicted 35. Hull KR led 30–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 42. The model went 1/2 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (34/100) — penalties Hull KR 2 · St Helens 7.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 51.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 5 · Predicted total: 35

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Hull KR and St Helens. The model can't split them, landing on Hull KR at 52%. The ratings say otherwise: St Helens sit 83 ELO points clear, 1627 to 1543, so the model is backing Hull KR against the ratings gap. Form leans St Helens' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Hull KR.

On paper St Helens shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The model still sides with Hull KR, which says Venue Advantage and H2H History carry the most weight. The margin model has St Helens by 4.5, with the two sides combining for about 35. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 20.0pts | Avg Score | 25.2pts |
| 23.0pts | Avg Conceded | 16.8pts |
| -3.0pts | Avg Margin | 8.4pts |
| 1193.0m | Run Metres | 1290.4m |
| 4.4 | Clean Breaks | 5.6 |
| 327.2 | Tackles | 292.8 |
| 11.0 | Errors | 10.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R1 L · R3 L · R4 W · R5 L | 20.0 |
| St Helens | R1 L · R2 W · R3 W · R4 W · R5 W | 25.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | St Helens | 36 – 12 | Hull KR | St Helens 54% ✓ |
| 2025 | SF | Hull KR | 20 – 12 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R24 | Hull KR | 12 – 8 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R13 | Hull KR | 34 – 4 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R4 | St Helens | 10 – 20 | Hull KR | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 7th there (0.8 conceded/game). Key man: Burgess, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- St Helens' best path is the right edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.4 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 13th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Feldt, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 6th) | 1/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.8/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 1.75/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.75/g (def 8th) | 2/g (att 6th) · concedes 1/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 0.5/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.4/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.2/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 2 | 4 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 212m/g | 225m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.5/g | 7.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.7% | 90.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 10 | 11 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 571m/g | 445m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.8/g | 17.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 73% | 83.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 6 | 6 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 233m/g | 343m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.5/g | 8.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.8% | 93.6% |

**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.44/g (lg 0.46) -4% · Wingers 0.79/g (lg 0.93) -15% · Five-Eighths 0.15/g (lg 0.19) -21%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.24/g (lg 0.26) -8% · Centres 0.34/g (lg 0.46) -26% · Props 0.1/g (lg 0.14) -29%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sewell Group Craven Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Broadbent | FB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 10/21g | 22% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 4/20g | 8/17g | 34% | — | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 12/26g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/13g | 6/12g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 3 in 4g | 10/10g (3·0·0·1·1·2·0·1·1·1) | 13/19g | 20/21g | 54% | — | 🏉 1' 25' 47' |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·2·0) | 9/13g | 27/46g | 50% | — | 🏉 10' 32' 52' |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/9g | 8/26g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 6/32g | 18% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 8/51g | 20% | — | 🏉 23' |
| 10 | Tom Amone | PR | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 1/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Taealoaloa Amone | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Dean Hadley | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 1/43g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 12/35g | 10% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 4/49g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Luckley | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/38g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Jai Whitbread | INT | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 4/28g | 16% | — | 🏉 61' |
| 16 | Jack Brown | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 1/21g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Noah Booth | INT | 0 in 3g | 6/10g (0·1·2·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/4g | 43% | — | — |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harry Robertson | FB | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/3g | 32% | — | — |
| 2 | Owen Dagnall | WG | 0 in 4g | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 35% | — | 🏉 41' |
| 3 | Mark Percival | CE | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 0/5g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Deon Cross | CE | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 5/11g | 3/7g | 34% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Murphy | WG | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 4/4g | 3/3g | 47% | — | — |
| 6 | Jackson Hastings | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Tristan Sailor | HB | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 27% | — | — |
| 8 | David Klemmer | PR | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 9 | Jake Wingfield | HK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | George Delaney | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Matt Whitley | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/20g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Shane Wright | 2R | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/6g | 0/3g | 16% | — | 🏉 71' |
| 13 | Joe Shorrocks | LK | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Noah Stephens | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 5% | — | — |
| 15 | Daryl Clark | INT | 3 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 2/20g | 0/6g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | Jake Davies | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Agnatius Paasi | INT | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** St Helens hold the ELO advantage (1627 vs 1543), but the market favours Hull KR (@1.93). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1543 · St Helens 1627 · ELO difference: 83 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | St Helens |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | St Helens |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull KR |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 35 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)