Hull KR
St Helens
AI Win Probability
Hull KR
52%
St Helens
48%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Hull KR a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. St Helens are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Hull KR counter with Venue Advantage and H2H History which tips the scales. St Helens carry a 83-point ELO rating advantage (1627 vs 1543). Recent form favours St Helens with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Hull KR. The margin model predicts St Helens by 4.5 points with a combined total of 35.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hull KR to Win @1.93
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
St Helens -4.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
St Helens 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 40.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hull KR | R1L R3L R4W R5L older → newer | 20.0 |
St Helens | R1L R2W R3W R4W R5W | 25.2 |
Avg Conceded
23.0
Hull KR
16.8
St Helens
Avg Margin
-3.0
Hull KR
8.4
St Helens
Run Metres
1188
Hull KR
1283
St Helens
Clean Breaks
4.4
Hull KR
5.6
St Helens
ELO–Market Disagreement
St Helens hold the ELO advantage (1627 vs 1543), but the market favours Hull KR (@1.93).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
Hull KR predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 35 · Line: -4.5