# Leeds Rhinos v Warrington Wolves — Super League Round 6 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leeds Rhinos 26 – 22 Warrington Wolves

_Leeds Rhinos surge back to stampede past Warrington Wolves._

Half time: 8 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leeds Rhinos 74% / Warrington Wolves 26% · AMT Headingley Stadium · Mon, 30 Mar, 03:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Leeds Rhinos: Maika Sivo (29'), Maika Sivo (38'), Maika Sivo (45'), Jack Bird (54'), Brodie Croft (66') · Warrington Wolves: Josh Thewlis (20' 1st), Josh Smith (25'), Toby King (49'), Josh Smith (75')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 74% | Won |
| Warrington Wolves | 26% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.0 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leeds Rhinos vs Warrington Wolves Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 6 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Leeds Rhinos 26–22 Warrington Wolves in Super League Round 6 at AMT Headingley Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Leeds Rhinos as 74 percent favourites and picked them to win by 9. The lean was right, and the combined total of 47 sat one point under the actual 48. The margin was softer, a 9-point pick against an actual 4-point win, but that's a fair miss on a night that went the distance.

What makes the read worth a second look is the shape of it. Warrington Wolves came in rated higher everywhere it usually counts: forwards 964 to 886, backs 1119 to 831, halves 1251 to 834, hooker 920 to 600. Those aren't marginal gaps. Warrington's recent form backed it up too, four wins from five against Leeds Rhinos' three, and better scoring and conceding averages across that stretch. The ELO gap, Leeds Rhinos 1633 to Warrington Wolves 1531, was betting on something the positional numbers didn't show. It came down to how the ball was used, not who had it on paper.

Warrington Wolves made the early running count. Ewan Irwin slotted a penalty goal in the 8th minute, Josh Thewlis crossed in the 20th, and Josh Smith added another five minutes later with Irwin's conversion making it 0-12. That's about as clean a start as a visiting side can hope for at AMT Headingley Stadium.

Leeds Rhinos clawed back before the break through Maika Sivo, who scored twice inside nine minutes either side of the half-hour mark to make it 8-12 at half-time. That's the score that mattered most for context: Leeds Rhinos were behind at the break despite the fight back, and anyone assuming Warrington Wolves controlled the whole night would be wrong on the detail.

Sivo completed his hat-trick three minutes into the second half to level it at 12-12, and Jake Connor's conversion nudged Leeds Rhinos in front for the first time, 14-12. Warrington Wolves answered through Toby King in the 49th minute, with Irwin's boot making it 14-18. That's the high point of the comeback for the visitors, and it lasted only until the 54th minute, when Jack Bird scored to tie it at 18-18.

From there Leeds Rhinos took control late. Brodie Croft's try in the 66th minute put them 22-18 up, Connor's conversion made it 24-18, and his penalty goal in the 71st minute stretched it to 26-18. Josh Smith's second try in the 75th minute, unconverted, closed the gap to the final 26-22 but came too late to matter.

The stats explain why Leeds Rhinos found a way through despite the weaker positional ratings. They ran for 1,247 metres to Warrington Wolves' 1,026, broke the line seven times to four, and busted 33 tackles to 18. Warrington Wolves were tidier with the ball, coughing it up only seven times to Leeds Rhinos' ten, and gave away fewer penalties, nine to ten in Leeds Rhinos' favour. In a four-point match, that gap in go-forward and line breaks looks like the difference.

So the model's read holds up in outline: right team, right ballpark on points. But the underlying story wasn't a form team cruising past a weaker one. It was a side that trailed at half-time and got outmuscled early, finding enough in the second half through Sivo's hat-trick and a strong finish from Bird, Croft and Connor to get home by four.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| **1,247** | Run metres | 1,026 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **33** | Tackle busts | 18 |
| **9** | Offloads | 5 |
| 10 | Errors | **7** |
| **9** | Penalties conceded | 10 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 4 |
| 3/6 | Goals | 3/5 |
| 9 | Penalties Conceded | 10 |
| 10 | Errors | 7 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 74% probability. The predicted margin of 9.0 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. Total score prediction of 47 was close to the actual 48, within 1 points. Leeds Rhinos trailed 8–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 26–22. A clean sweep, all 2 model picks hit for this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (33/100) — penalties Leeds Rhinos 9 · Warrington Wolves 10.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 74.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 9 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leeds Rhinos here: 74% to see off Warrington Wolves. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 102 ELO points clear, 1633 to 1531. Form leans Warrington Wolves' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Leeds Rhinos.

On paper Warrington Wolves shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The model still sides with Leeds Rhinos, which says ELO Difference and Venue Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 9.0, with the two sides combining for about 47. Leeds Rhinos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 31.2pts | Avg Score | 36.2pts |
| 14.8pts | Avg Conceded | 18.8pts |
| 16.4pts | Avg Margin | 17.4pts |
| 1430.6m | Run Metres | 1228.6m |
| 6.0 | Clean Breaks | 6.0 |
| 289.0 | Tackles | 272.4 |
| 9.6 | Errors | 5.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R1 L · R2 W · R3 W · R4 W · R5 L | 31.2 |
| Warrington Wolves | R1 W · R3 W · R4 W · R5 W | 36.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warrington Wolves lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | SF | Leeds Rhinos | 12 – 14 | Warrington Wolves | Leeds Rhinos 58% ✗ |
| 2026 | R15 | Warrington Wolves | 6 – 34 | Leeds Rhinos | Leeds Rhinos 71% ✓ |
| 2025 | R14 | Leeds Rhinos | 36 – 12 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2025 | R6 | Warrington Wolves | 16 – 14 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Leeds Rhinos | 8 – 34 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.4 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 4th there (0.75 conceded/game). Key man: Sivo, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (3.75 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 5th there (1.6 conceded/game). Key man: Currie, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leeds Rhinos | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.6/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 0.6/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.75/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.2/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.6/g (def 5th (strong)) | 3.75/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.75/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 2.4/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.4/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.25/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 2 | 1 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 3.8/g |
| Run Metres | 152m/g | 199m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4/g | 3.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92% | 88.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 5 | 10 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 324m/g | 477m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.2/g | 13.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.6/g | 2.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.5% | 86.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 3 | 7 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 396m/g | 302m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.4/g | 7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 1.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.4% | 95.8% |

**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.17) +47% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.14) +29% · Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.1) +0%
**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.05) +60% · Halfbacks 0.17/g (lg 0.17) +0% · Fullbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.25) -20%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AMT Headingley Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 7/25g | 36% | — | — |
| 2 | Maika Sivo | WG | 9 in 4g | 9/4g (2·4·3·0) | 0/0g | 5/2g | 75% | — | 🏉 29' 38' 45' |
| 3 | Jack Bird | CE | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 4 | Ashley Handley | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 3 in 4g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·1·0·0·2·1·0) | 10/17g | 7/17g | 40% | — | — |
| 6 | Brodie Croft | 5/8 | 5 in 4g | 8/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·1·2·1) | 3/8g | 9/25g | 42% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 7 | Jake Connor | HB | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/16g | 5/16g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Keenan Palasia | PR | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/16g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Levi | HK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 7% | — | — |
| 10 | Thomas Holroyd | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Kallum Watkins | 2R | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 3/14g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/7g | 6/27g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Cam Smith | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron Smith | LK | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 4/21g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Christopher Hankinson | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Cooper Jenkins | INT | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/15g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Jarrod O'Connor | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/28g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Mikolaj Oledzki | INT | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 1/21g | 8% | — | — |

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Thewlis | FB | 3 in 4g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·0·2·1·0·2·0) | 3/7g | 2/2g | 46% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 2 | Matthew Ashton | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 3 | Toby King | CE | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/1g | 40% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 4 | Albert Hopoate | CE | 3 in 4g | 3/4g (1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 75% | — | — |
| 5 | Joshua Smith | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 25' 75' |
| 6 | Ewan Irwin | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | George Williams | HB | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 10/22g | 1/2g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Luke Yates | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/15g | 1/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Kelepi Tanginoa | 2R | 4 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·4) | 1/12g | 0/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Samuel Stone | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 3 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 4/21g | 1/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | James Harrison | INT | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Jordan Crowther | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/13g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Joe Philbin | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Lachlan Webster | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leeds Rhinos 1633 · Warrington Wolves 1531 · ELO difference: 102 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Warrington Wolves |

**Model Confidence: 74%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)