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Super League | Round 6

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AMT HEADINGLEY STADIUM • SUNDAY 29 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

2622
WAR

Warrington Wolves

✅ Model correct — backed Leeds Rhinos at 74%

AI Win Probability

74%Leeds RhinosFavourite

Leeds Rhinos

74%

Warrington Wolves

26%

AI Match Overview

Leeds Rhinos are clear favourites here at 74%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Warrington Wolves. Warrington Wolves are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate, but Leeds Rhinos counter with ELO Difference and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Leeds Rhinos carry a 102-point ELO rating advantage (1633 vs 1531). Recent form favours Warrington Wolves with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Leeds Rhinos. The margin model predicts Leeds Rhinos by 9.0 points with a combined total of 47.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leeds Rhinos to Win @1.34

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Leeds Rhinos +9 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leeds Rhinos 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leeds Rhinos
R1L
R2W
R3W
R4W
R5L

older → newer

31.2
Warrington Wolves
R1W
R3W
R4W
R5W
36.2

Avg Conceded

14.8

Leeds Rhinos

18.8

Warrington Wolves

Avg Margin

16.4

Leeds Rhinos

17.4

Warrington Wolves

Run Metres

1423

Leeds Rhinos

1223

Warrington Wolves

Clean Breaks

6.0

Leeds Rhinos

6.0

Warrington Wolves

H2H History (Last 5)Warrington Wolves lead 4-1
Jun 2025LEE 36 - 12 WAR
Apr 2025LEE 14 - 16 WAR
Feb 2024LEE 8 - 34 WAR
Aug 2024LEE 6 - 24 WAR
Jul 2024LEE 18 - 30 WAR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEE
1633Overall1531
WAR
ELO difference: +102 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

886Forwards964
Best: 1143WAR +78Best: 1333
831Backs1119
Best: 978WAR +288Best: 1358
834Halves1251
Best: 834WAR +418Best: 1251
600Hooker920
WAR +320

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEE
Stat
WAR
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
31.2pts
Avg Score
36.2pts
14.8pts
Avg Conceded
18.8pts
16.4pts
Avg Margin
17.4pts
1423.2m
Run Metres
1223.2m
6.0
Clean Breaks
6.0
289.4
Tackles
272.4
9.6
Errors
5.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Rhinos
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Wolves
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Wolves
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Wolves
5
Halves Control9.0%
Wolves
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Rhinos
7
H2H History6.0%
Wolves

Model Confidence

74%

Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 9 points

Predicted total: 47 · Line: +9.0

4/4 match predictions correct