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Super League | Round 5

alphr.com.au

Thu 19 Mar11:00am
WIGWIG
YRKYRK
Fri 20 Mar11:00am
TOTO
STHSTH
Fri 20 Mar11:00am
WAKWAK
LEILEI
Fri 20 Mar11:00am
BRDBRD
HUDHUD
Sat 21 Mar11:00am
WARWAR
CASCAS
Sat 21 Mar11:00am
CATCAT
HKRHKR
Sun 22 Mar11:00am
HULHUL
LEELEE
HUL
Hull FC
VS
LEE
Leeds Rhinos
MKM STADIUM • SUNDAY 22 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT

Win Probability

Full Time
24
16

Scoring Breakdown

FCRhinos
3Tries2
3/3Conversions2/2
3/3Penalty Goals2/3
8Penalties Conceded9
7Errors8
3Line Breaks2
19Tackle Busts41
13Offloads12
1077Metres1204

Ref Watch

by Alphr
AI Insight
✅Clean Game

FC had penalties evenly distributed (8-9). Clean officiating with no material impact on the result.

PENS8 – 9
ERR7 – 8

AI Game Review

Hull FC defied the model's 68% prediction for Leeds Rhinos, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.7 but the actual margin was 8 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 40, within 1 points. Hull FC trailed 14–16 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 24–16. A tough result for the model, all 4 picks missed on this one.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay
Beta
80', Hull FC firmly in control (99%)
HUL24
99%80'1%
16LEE
HT100%50%0%0'20'40'60'80'
← Leeds Rhinos momentumMomentum +0Hull FC momentum →
Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

68%Leeds RhinosFavourite

Hull FC

32%

Leeds Rhinos

68%

✨

AI Match Overview

Leeds Rhinos are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hull FC. Hull FC are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Leeds Rhinos counter with Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Hull FC carry a 29-point ELO rating advantage (1505 vs 1476). Recent form favours Leeds Rhinos with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Hull FC. The margin model predicts Leeds Rhinos by 7.7 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leeds Rhinos to Win @1.47

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Line / Spread

Leeds Rhinos -7.7 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Margin Band

Leeds Rhinos 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull FC
R1W
R2L
R3L
R4L

older → newer

14.4
Leeds Rhinos
R1L
R2W
R3W
R4W
19.7

Avg Conceded

15.6

Hull FC

22.4

Leeds Rhinos

Avg Margin

9.4

Hull FC

5.3

Leeds Rhinos

Run Metres

1306

Hull FC

1458

Leeds Rhinos

Line Breaks

3.2

Hull FC

6.6

Leeds Rhinos

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model
⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

Hull FC hold the ELO advantage (1505 vs 1476), but the market favours Leeds Rhinos (@1.47).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUL
1505Overall1476
LEE
ELO difference: +29 in favour of Hull FC

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

1010Forwards976
HUL +34
1023Backs924
HUL +99
1025Halves926
HUL +99
1023Hooker953
HUL +71

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUL
Stat
LEE
1.9
Wins (Last 5)
3.1
14.4pts
Avg Score
19.7pts
15.6pts
Avg Conceded
22.4pts
9.4pts
Avg Margin
5.3pts
1305.7m
Run Metres
1457.9m
3.2
Line Breaks
6.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
FC
2
Forward Pack12.0%
FC
3
Backline Quality10.0%
FC
4
Halves Control9.0%
FC
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Rhinos
6
Venue Advantage7.0%
FC
7
H2H History6.0%
—

Model Confidence

68%

Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: -7.7

0/4 match predictions correct