# Hull FC v Leeds Rhinos — Super League Round 5 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull FC 24 – 16 Leeds Rhinos

_Hull FC roar back to grind down Leeds Rhinos._

Half time: 14 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull FC 32% / Leeds Rhinos 68% · MKM Stadium · Mon, 23 Mar, 02:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Hull FC: Jake Arthur (7' 1st), Ligi Sao (10'), Davy Litten (51') · Leeds Rhinos: James McDonnell (25'), Brodie Croft (31')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 68% | Lost |
| Hull FC | 32% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 7.7 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull FC vs Leeds Rhinos Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 5 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Hull FC 24–16 Leeds Rhinos in Super League Round 5 at MKM Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull FC held off Leeds Rhinos 24–16 at MKM Stadium. Trailing 16–14 at half-time, Hull FC flipped the game after the break.

Jake Arthur opened the scoring; Hull FC crossed through Jake Arthur, Ligi Sao and Davy Litten; Leeds Rhinos scored through James McDonnell and Brodie Croft.

Hull FC were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 7 times to 8. Hull FC were sharper in attack, breaking the line 3 times to 2. Hull FC held the discipline edge, conceding 8 penalties to 9.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull FC | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 1,068 | Run metres | **1,197** |
| **3** | Line breaks | 2 |
| 20 | Tackle busts | **40** |
| **13** | Offloads | 12 |
| **7** | Errors | 8 |
| **8** | Penalties conceded | 9 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull FC | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 6/6 | Goals | 4/5 |
| 8 | Penalties Conceded | 9 |
| 7 | Errors | 8 |

**Model Report Card**

Hull FC defied the model's 68% prediction for Leeds Rhinos, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.7 but the actual margin was 8 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 40, within 1 points. Hull FC trailed 14–16 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 24–16. A tough result for the model, all 2 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (25/100) — penalties Hull FC 8 · Leeds Rhinos 9.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 68.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos — model probability 68.0% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 1-12 — model probability 68.0% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 8 · Predicted total: 41

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | Leeds Rhinos | 12 – 18 | Hull FC | Leeds Rhinos 75% ✗ |
| 2025 | R24 | Hull FC | 0 – 34 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2025 | R11 | Leeds Rhinos | 18 – 16 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Hull FC | 12 – 18 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2024 | R25 | Leeds Rhinos | 68 – 6 | Hull FC | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull FC's best path is the left edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.25 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 3rd there (0.5 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.75 tries/game) runs at a Hull FC defence ranked 10th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Sivo, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull FC | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.25/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 8th) | 0.75/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.5/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.75/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 4th (strong)) | 2.5/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.5/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 10th) | 2.75/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull FC | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 1 | 5 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 63m/g | 158m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 1.5/g | 4.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.6% | 90.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull FC | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 10 | 13 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 548m/g | 364m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.5/g | 11/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 3.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.4% | 84.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull FC | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 1 | 5 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 295m/g | 391m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.5/g | 8.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 1.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.4% | 93.3% |

**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.05) +60% · Halfbacks 0.17/g (lg 0.17) +0% · Fullbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.25) -20%
**Who scores on Hull FC** — Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.1) +60% · Five-Eighths 0.28/g (lg 0.19) +47% · Fullbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.25) +32%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MKM Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull FC** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zak Hardaker | FB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 3/17g | 16% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Briscoe | WG | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 3/21g | 22% | — | — |
| 3 | Arthur Romano | CE | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 6/19g | 26% | — | 🏉 51' |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 3 in 4g | 8/10g (1·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·1·2) | 3/5g | 22/27g | 58% | — | — |
| 6 | Cade Cust | 5/8 | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 3/16g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Jakob Arthur | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Ligi Sao | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/37g | 6% | — | 🏉 10' |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/14g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Harvie Hill | PR | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | James Bell | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Connor Bailey | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | John Asiata | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Lisone | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Brad Fash | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/17g | 2/42g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Matty Laidlaw | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/20g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Callum Kemp | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 36% | — | — |
| 2 | Maika Sivo | WG | 9 in 3g | 9/3g (2·4·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 30% | — | — |
| 4 | Ashley Handley | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Christopher Hankinson | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Jake Connor | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/17g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Brodie Croft | HB | 4 in 3g | 9/10g (2·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·1·2) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 42% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Levi | HK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Keenan Palasia | PR | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Kallum Watkins | 2R | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 22% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 13 | Cameron Smith | LK | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Cam Smith | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Jarrod O'Connor | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Cooper Jenkins | INT | 3 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| 16 | Thomas Holroyd | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Bird | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)