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Super League | Round 5

alphr.com.au

THE DIY KITCHENS STADIUM • FRIDAY 20 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
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WAK

Wakefield Trinity

1814
LEI

Leigh Leopards

✅ Model correct — backed Wakefield Trinity at 66%

AI Win Probability

66%Wakefield TrinityFavourite

Wakefield Trinity

66%

Leigh Leopards

34%

AI Match Overview

Wakefield Trinity are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Leigh Leopards. The model sees Wakefield Trinity ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. Leigh Leopards carry a 24-point ELO rating advantage (1523 vs 1499). Recent form favours Wakefield Trinity with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Leigh Leopards. The margin model predicts Wakefield Trinity by 7.0 points with a combined total of 45.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wakefield Trinity to Win @1.51

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Wakefield Trinity +7 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wakefield Trinity 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wakefield Trinity
R1L
R2W
R3L
R4W

older → newer

14.8
Leigh Leopards
R1W
R2L
R3L
R4L
13.2

Avg Conceded

19.4

Wakefield Trinity

25.6

Leigh Leopards

Avg Margin

-4.6

Wakefield Trinity

-12.4

Leigh Leopards

Run Metres

1196

Wakefield Trinity

1140

Leigh Leopards

Clean Breaks

3.6

Wakefield Trinity

3.4

Leigh Leopards

H2H History (Last 5)Leigh Leopards lead 4-1
Sep 2025WAK 10 - 26 LEI
Jun 2025WAK 20 - 24 LEI
Apr 2025WAK 40 - 14 LEI
Feb 2023WAK 4 - 30 LEI
Sep 2023WAK 19 - 20 LEI
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

Leigh Leopards hold the ELO advantage (1523 vs 1499), but the market favours Wakefield Trinity (@1.51).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAK
1499Overall1523
LEI
ELO difference: -24 in favour of Leigh Leopards

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

804Forwards746
Best: 1033WAK +58Best: 929
811Backs1025
Best: 952LEI +214Best: 1308
948Halves600
Best: 948WAK +348Best: 600
600Hooker600
Even

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAK
Stat
LEI
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
14.8pts
Avg Score
13.2pts
19.4pts
Avg Conceded
25.6pts
-4.6pts
Avg Margin
-12.4pts
1196.0m
Run Metres
1139.8m
3.6
Clean Breaks
3.4
359.0
Tackles
335.8
9.6
Errors
8.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Leopards
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Trinity
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Leopards
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Trinity
5
Halves Control9.0%
Trinity
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Trinity
7
H2H History6.0%
Leopards

Model Confidence

66%

Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 7 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: +7.0

3/4 match predictions correct