# Wakefield Trinity v Leigh Leopards — Super League Round 5 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wakefield Trinity 18 – 14 Leigh Leopards

_Wakefield Trinity see off a gallant Leigh Leopards._

Half time: 8 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wakefield Trinity 66% / Leigh Leopards 34% · The Diy Kitchens Stadium · Sat, 21 Mar, 07:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Wakefield Trinity: Jazz Tevaga (10' 1st), Jayden Myers (41'), Oliver Pratt (63') · Leigh Leopards: Gareth O'Brien (32'), Josh Charnley (69'), Jacob Alick-Wiencke (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | 66% | Won |
| Leigh Leopards | 34% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.0 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wakefield Trinity vs Leigh Leopards Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 5 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Wakefield Trinity 18–14 Leigh Leopards in Super League Round 5 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leigh Leopards ran for more, busted more tackles and looked the more dangerous side with ball in hand. Wakefield Trinity just didn't cough it up as often. That trade-off decided it: Wakefield Trinity 18, Leigh Leopards 14 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium.

The shape of the contrast is right there in the stat sheet. Leigh Leopards ran for 1,172 metres to Wakefield Trinity's 1,093 and racked up 37 tackle busts to 25, all that go-forward suggesting a side happy to play off broken field and back its footwork. But 9 penalties conceded and 7 handling errors against Wakefield Trinity's 6 and 10 respectively tell you where the ambition occasionally tipped into carelessness. Wakefield Trinity, for their part, turned fewer line breaks (3 to 2) into more actual points, which is the whole ball game in a tight one.

Wakefield Trinity led 8-4 at the break and never gave it up. Jazz Tevaga opened the scoring inside ten minutes, Max Jowitt's conversion and a 31st-minute penalty goal stretching it to 8-0 before Gareth O'Brien got Leigh Leopards on the board a minute later. That was as close as the first half got.

The game's real shift came either side of the hour mark. Jayden Myers crossed just after the break to make it 12-4, then Oliver Pratt's try in the 63rd, converted by Jowitt, pushed it out to 18-4. That gave Wakefield Trinity a 14-point buffer with less than 20 minutes left on the clock.

Leigh Leopards didn't fold, though. Josh Charnley scored in the 69th, Adam Cook's conversion and then Jacob Alick-Wiencke's try right at the death in the 79th dragged it back to 18-14. Four points in it at the finish, same as the half-time gap that had opened up early and never quite closed.

The positional numbers going in explain a fair bit of how this played out. Wakefield Trinity's halves rating of 948 against Leigh Leopards' 600 is a gulf, and it showed in the composure when it mattered: three tries from three different players rather than one man doing the heavy lifting.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 1,093 | Run metres | **1,172** |
| **3** | Line breaks | 2 |
| 25 | Tackle busts | **37** |
| 6 | Offloads | 6 |
| 10 | Errors | **7** |
| **6** | Penalties conceded | 9 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 3 |
| 3/4 | Goals | 1/3 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 9 |
| 10 | Errors | 7 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wakefield Trinity to win at 66% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Wakefield Trinity by 7.0 vs the actual margin of 4 points. A clean sweep, all 2 model picks hit for this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (37/100) — penalties Wakefield Trinity 6 · Leigh Leopards 9.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wakefield Trinity to win — model probability 66.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wakefield Trinity — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wakefield Trinity 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wakefield Trinity by 7 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wakefield Trinity here: 66% to see off Leigh Leopards. The ratings say otherwise: Leigh Leopards sit 24 ELO points clear, 1523 to 1499, so the model is backing Wakefield Trinity against the ratings gap. Form leans Wakefield Trinity's way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Leigh Leopards.

Wakefield Trinity own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The margin model has Wakefield Trinity by 7.0, with the two sides combining for about 45. Wakefield Trinity to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 14.8pts | Avg Score | 13.2pts |
| 19.4pts | Avg Conceded | 25.6pts |
| -4.6pts | Avg Margin | -12.4pts |
| 1216.2m | Run Metres | 1145.8m |
| 3.6 | Clean Breaks | 3.4 |
| 359.6 | Tackles | 335.8 |
| 9.6 | Errors | 8.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | R1 L · R2 W · R3 L · R4 W | 14.8 |
| Leigh Leopards | R1 W · R2 L · R3 L · R4 L | 13.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wakefield Trinity lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | EF | Wakefield Trinity | 26 – 16 | Leigh Leopards | Leigh Leopards 56% ✗ |
| 2026 | R27 | Leigh Leopards | 8 – 19 | Wakefield Trinity | Leigh Leopards 62% ✗ |
| 2025 | EF | Leigh Leopards | 26 – 10 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2025 | R14 | Wakefield Trinity | 20 – 24 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2025 | R6 | Leigh Leopards | 14 – 40 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 0 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the right edge: Super League's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 4th there (0.75 conceded/game). Key man: Tate, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the middle: Super League's 10th-ranked middle attack (1.25 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 8th there (1.75 conceded/game). Key man: Hodgson, 1 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wakefield Trinity | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.25/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 9th) | 0.25/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 0.25/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.5/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.75/g (def 8th) | 1.25/g (att 10th) · concedes 3.25/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.5/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.25/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.75/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 0 | 2 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 128m/g | 80m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4/g | 3.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.7% | 85.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 10 | 7 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 458m/g | 562m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.8/g | 18.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.8/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.5% | 84.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 0 | 0 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 310m/g | 309m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.5/g | 6.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.6% | 89.6% |

**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.17) +12% · Props 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.05) +0%
**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Fullbacks 0.38/g (lg 0.25) +52% · Centres 0.69/g (lg 0.46) +50% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Jowitt | FB | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 5/13g | 34% | — | — |
| 2 | Jayden Myers | WG | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/5g | 30% | — | 🏉 41' |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 2 in 4g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·3·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 4/11g | 34% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Pratt | CE | 2 in 2g | 2/2g (1·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 100% | — | 🏉 63' |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | no games | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 6/9g | 4/11g | 44% | — | — |
| 6 | Jake Trueman | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/9g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Jack Sinfield | HB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 1/14g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Tyson Smoothy | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Ky Rodwell | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Seth Nikotemo | 2R | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/11g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Isaiah Vagana | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/12g | 3% | — | — |
| 13 | Jazz Tevaga | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 10' |
| 14 | Matty Storton | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Jay Pitts | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/15g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Caius Faatili | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/14g | 15% | — | — |

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gareth O'Brien | FB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 32' |
| 2 | Innes Senior | WG | 3 in 4g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 23% | — | — |
| 4 | Jack Hughes | CE | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 13/14g | 0/1g | 38% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 6 | Adam Cook | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Lam | HB | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Owen Trout | PR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Ben McNamara | HK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Alick-Wiencke | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Louis Brogan | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Ryan Brown | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Matty Davis | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Liam Horne | INT | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Leigh Leopards hold the ELO advantage (1523 vs 1499), but the market favours Wakefield Trinity (@1.51). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wakefield Trinity 1499 · Leigh Leopards 1523 · ELO difference: 24 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leigh Leopards |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)