# Catalans Dragons v Hull KR — Super League Round 5 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Catalans Dragons 26 – 20 Hull KR

_Catalans Dragons hold off a fast-finishing Hull KR._

Half time: 14 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Catalans Dragons 48% / Hull KR 52% · Stade Gilbert Brutus · Sun, 22 Mar, 04:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Catalans Dragons: Zac Lipowicz (13'), Zac Lipowicz (36'), Romain Navarrete (57'), Lenny Marc (78') · Hull KR: Tyrone May (7' 1st), Joe Burgess (63'), Tom Amone (70')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 52% | Lost |
| Catalans Dragons | 48% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.3 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Catalans Dragons vs Hull KR Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 5 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Catalans Dragons 26–20 Hull KR in Super League Round 5 at Stade Gilbert Brutus. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fourteen errors to five. That's the gap that mattered most as Catalans Dragons held off a fierce Hull KR fightback to win 26-20 at Stade Gilbert Brutus. Rugby league at its simplest: the side that hangs onto the ball usually wins the arm-wrestle, and Catalans did just enough of that to survive a grandstand finish.

It didn't look like a rout early on. Tyrone May crossed inside seven minutes and Mikey Lewis's conversion had Hull KR up 6-0, exactly the kind of start the visitors' halves pairing, rated above Catalans' at 1315 to 1236, would have wanted. But Zac Lipowicz hit back inside the quarter-hour, and by the 37th minute he'd scored again either side of a Toby Sexton penalty goal, turning a 6-6 deadlock into a 14-6 half-time lead. Sexton kicked every one of his attempts, and that reliability off the tee was worth six of Catalans' 26 points on its own.

The third quarter belonged entirely to the home side. Romain Navarrete's try just after the hour, converted by Sexton, stretched it to 20-6 and looked like it might settle things. Instead Hull KR produced the kind of response that explains why their last-five average margin sat at just -0.2 coming in: three tries in twelve minutes through Joe Burgess, Tom Amone and a Lewis penalty goal hauled the scores level at 20-20 by the 75th minute. Lenny Marc's try three minutes from time, and Sexton's conversion, was the difference in the end.

Strip out the scoreboard drama and the stat sheet tells a fairly blunt story. Catalans out-muscled Hull KR through the middle, 52 tackle busts to 30, and that physical edge showed up in the run metre count too, 1,330 to 1,269, despite Hull KR actually offloading more often, 13 times to 8. Catalans' backs were rated a clear 1020 to 923 over Hull KR's coming in, and tackle-bust and run-metre columns suggest that edge showed up when it counted.

Where Catalans really won the match, though, was in taking care of the footy. Five errors to fourteen is a lopsided count in any game, let alone one decided by six points, and it meant Hull KR were forever playing back into their own end after handling mistakes rather than building the pressure their attack threatened all night.

For Hull KR, the concerning part isn't the scoreline, it's the pattern. A team that came in averaging 9.6 errors a game blew well past that, and against a Catalans outfit that capitalised on field position, that kind of profligacy was always going to be costly. Their own attacking bursts, especially that three-try surge either side of the 70th minute, showed why their hooker rating of 780 sat well clear of Catalans' 624. It just wasn't enough sustained control to go with it.

Alphr's model had Hull KR as 52% favourites and predicted a narrow two-and-a-bit point win their way. Instead Catalans won by six, and both picks missed. The combined total of 46 wasn't far off the model's 43, so the shape of a high-scoring arm-wrestle was read correctly. Picking the winner in a game this tight, less so.

**Key Match Stats**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| **1,330** | Run metres | 1,269 |
| 5 | Line breaks | 5 |
| **52** | Tackle busts | 30 |
| 8 | Offloads | **13** |
| **5** | Errors | 14 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | 5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 5/5 | Goals | 4/4 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 5 | Errors | 14 |

**Model Report Card**

Catalans Dragons defied the model's 52% prediction for Hull KR, a notable result. The predicted margin of 2.3 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 46, within 3 points. A tough result for the model, all 2 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (26/100) — penalties Catalans Dragons 5 · Hull KR 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 52.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 2 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Catalans Dragons and Hull KR. The model can't split them, landing on Hull KR at 52%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 137 ELO points clear, 1578 to 1441.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The margin model has Hull KR by 2.3, with the two sides combining for about 43. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 17.6pts | Avg Score | 20.0pts |
| 22.4pts | Avg Conceded | 20.2pts |
| -4.8pts | Avg Margin | -0.2pts |
| 1100.2m | Run Metres | 1155.0m |
| 3.2 | Clean Breaks | 4.6 |
| 312.2 | Tackles | 300.2 |
| 8.2 | Errors | 9.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | R1 W · R2 L · R3 L · R4 W | 17.6 |
| Hull KR | R1 L · R3 L · R4 W | 20.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Hull KR | 28 – 10 | Catalans Dragons | Hull KR 61% ✓ |
| 2025 | R19 | Catalans Dragons | 6 – 34 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2025 | R14 | Hull KR | 68 – 6 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2024 | R22 | Catalans Dragons | 4 – 36 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2024 | R16 | Hull KR | 14 – 15 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the middle: Super League's 6th-ranked middle attack (1.75 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 10th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Staines, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull KR's best path is the middle: Super League's 7th-ranked middle attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 8th there (1.75 conceded/game). Key man: Whitbread, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Catalans Dragons | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.5/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.5/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 6th) |
| Middle | 1.75/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.75/g (def 8th) | 1.67/g (att 7th) · concedes 2/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 0.25/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 11th (weak)) | 0.67/g (att 9th) · concedes 2/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 3 | 2 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 111m/g | 214m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.5/g | 8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.7% | 84.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 9 | 5 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 473m/g | 538m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.3/g | 11/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.9% | 71.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 1 | 1 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 191m/g | 235m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.8/g | 5.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.5% | 93.1% |

**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.21/g (lg 0.26) -19% · Centres 0.34/g (lg 0.46) -26% · Five-Eighths 0.13/g (lg 0.19) -32%
**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.1) +70% · Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.17) +41% · Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.05) +40%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Gilbert Brutus. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Staines | FB | 3 in 4g | 3/4g (1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 75% | — | — |
| 2 | Nick Cotric | WG | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/12g | 9% | — | — |
| 3 | Phoenix Togagae | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 3 | Phoenix Laulu-togagae | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 4 | Solomona Faataape | CE | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 50% | — | — |
| 5 | Lenny Marc | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 78' |
| 6 | Lewis Dodd | 5/8 | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 0/6g | 28% | — | — |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 25% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Allen | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Alrix Costa | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Romain Navarrete | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 1/38g | 2% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 11 | Matthieu Laguerre | 2R | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/22g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Lipowicz | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 13' 36' |
| 13 | Ben Garcia | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Chris Satae | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 2/27g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Julian Bousquet | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/13g | 7/51g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Kruise Leeming | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 2/8g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/12g | 8% | — | — |

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Broadbent | FB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/7g | 4/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 3/5g | 24/49g | 36% | — | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 6/10g | 1/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 2 in 3g | 13/10g (4·3·0·0·1·1·2·0·1·1) | 19/17g | 5/5g | 52% | — | 🏉 63' |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·2) | 6/10g | 2/5g | 52% | — | — |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 4/23g | 18% | — | 🏉 7' |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/6g | 20% | — | — |
| 10 | Dean Hadley | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/18g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Thomas Whitehead | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Taealoaloa Amone | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Tom Amone | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/4g | 10% | — | 🏉 70' |
| 15 | Sam Luckley | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Jai Whitbread | INT | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Bill Leyland | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Catalans Dragons 1441 · Hull KR 1578 · ELO difference: 137 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull KR |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)