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Super League | Round 5

alphr.com.au

STADE GILBERT BRUTUS • SATURDAY 21 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
CAT

Catalans Dragons

2620
HKR

Hull KR

❌ Upset — model favoured Hull KR at 52%

AI Win Probability

52%Hull KRFavourite

Catalans Dragons

48%

Hull KR

52%

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Hull KR a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Hull KR carry a 137-point ELO rating advantage (1578 vs 1441). The margin model predicts Hull KR by 2.3 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @1.92

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Hull KR -2.3 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Catalans Dragons
R1W
R2L
R3L
R4W

older → newer

17.6
Hull KR
R1L
R3L
R4W
20.0

Avg Conceded

22.4

Catalans Dragons

20.2

Hull KR

Avg Margin

-4.8

Catalans Dragons

-0.2

Hull KR

Run Metres

1094

Catalans Dragons

1151

Hull KR

Clean Breaks

3.2

Catalans Dragons

4.6

Hull KR

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 3-2
Jul 2025CAT 6 - 34 HKR
Jun 2025CAT 6 - 68 HKR
Aug 2024CAT 4 - 36 HKR
Jun 2024CAT 15 - 14 HKR
Apr 2024CAT 36 - 6 HKR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CAT
1441Overall1578
HKR
ELO difference: -137 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

812Forwards811
Best: 1036EvenBest: 1024
1020Backs923
Best: 1170CAT +97Best: 1087
1236Halves1315
Best: 1236HKR +79Best: 1315
624Hooker780
HKR +156

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CAT
Stat
HKR
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
17.6pts
Avg Score
20.0pts
22.4pts
Avg Conceded
20.2pts
-4.8pts
Avg Margin
-0.2pts
1094.2m
Run Metres
1151.2m
3.2
Clean Breaks
4.6
312.2
Tackles
300.2
8.2
Errors
9.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
KR
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Dragons
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
KR
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Dragons
7
H2H History6.0%
KR

Model Confidence

52%

Hull KR predicted to win by 2 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: -2.3

1/4 match predictions correct