# Toulouse Olympique v St Helens — Super League Round 5 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Toulouse Olympique 16 – 30 St Helens

_St Helens march past Toulouse Olympique._

Half time: 0 – 28 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Toulouse Olympique 48% / St Helens 52% · Stade Ernest Wallon · Sat, 21 Mar, 05:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Toulouse Olympique: Benjamin Laguerre (63'), Luke Polselli (69'), Tyler Dupree (72') · St Helens: Agnatius Paasi (3' 1st), Lewis Murphy (11'), Lewis Murphy (19'), David Klemmer (21'), Deon Cross (29')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 52% | Won |
| Toulouse Olympique | 48% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.8 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Toulouse Olympique vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 5 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Toulouse Olympique 16–30 St Helens in Super League Round 5 at Stade Ernest Wallon. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half-time at Stade Ernest Wallon read St Helens 28, Toulouse Olympique 0. Full-time read 30-16. Work out what happened in between and you've got the whole story of this one.

St Helens didn't just lead at the break, they'd basically finished the match. Agnatius Paasi opened the scoring inside three minutes, Lewis Murphy grabbed two of his own either side of the quarter-hour mark, then David Klemmer and Deon Cross piled on before the 30-minute mark arrived. Jackson Hastings landed everything he was asked to, four conversions and a penalty goal, and by half-time it was 0-28. Job done, in theory.

Except Toulouse Olympique decided to actually turn up for the second half. Benjamin Laguerre crossed just after the hour, Jake Shorrocks converted, and within ten minutes Luke Polselli and Tyler Dupree had both scored too. Toulouse ran up 16 unanswered points between the 63rd and 73rd minutes, the only response from St Helens a Hastings penalty goal at the death to push it back out to 30-16. A cricket score turned into something that at least looked like a contest, even if the maths never really let it become one.

The stat sheet tells you why St Helens could afford the second-half slump. They out-broke Toulouse 6 line breaks to 4, busted 32 tackles to 26, and offloaded 10 times to Toulouse's 6. That's a side moving the ball with more purpose, and it lines up with the pre-match numbers: St Helens's halves rating of 1359 dwarfed Toulouse's 648, and that gap in the pivots is exactly the kind of thing that shows up as line breaks and quick hands rather than in a box score of tries alone.

Discipline is where Toulouse actually won the arm wrestle. They conceded just 3 penalties to St Helens's 8, and it's fair to say that restraint came a bit too late to matter given the scoreboard damage already done in the first half. Run metres were close, 1,154 for Toulouse to 1,086 for St Helens, and errors were dead level at 12 apiece. None of it changed the shape of the result.

Toulouse's forward pack rating of 909 against St Helens's 813 suggests they had the grunt to trouble them, and the second-half tries back that up. But a stronger pack and better hooker rating (800 to 646) couldn't paper over the first-half gap in the halves, where St Helens simply had more class in the building blocks of the game.

Form lines had St Helens the better side coming in, three wins from five against Toulouse's two, and an average margin of plus-4 against minus-4.5. The model backed them at 52 percent and predicted a 1.8-point win. Reality delivered a 14-point margin instead, so the model's win call landed but its margin read was well off the pace. The total prediction of 45 was almost spot on next to the actual 46, which is some consolation for a model that went 1 from 2 on the day. Toulouse Olympique will take the second half as a sign of life. St Helens will take the two points and not think about it much beyond that.

**Key Match Stats**

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| **1,154** | Run metres | 1,086 |
| 4 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 26 | Tackle busts | **32** |
| 6 | Offloads | **10** |
| 12 | Errors | 12 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 8 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 5 |
| 2/3 | Goals | 5/7 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 12 | Errors | 12 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Helens to win at 52% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.8 but the actual margin was 14 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 46, within 1 points. The model went 1/2 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (36/100) — penalties Toulouse Olympique 3 · St Helens 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 52.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 2 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Toulouse Olympique and St Helens. The model can't split them, landing on St Helens at 52%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 147 ELO points clear, 1608 to 1462. Form leans St Helens' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Toulouse Olympique.

St Helens own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has St Helens by 1.8, with the two sides combining for about 45. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 16.0pts | Avg Score | 21.6pts |
| 20.5pts | Avg Conceded | 17.6pts |
| -4.5pts | Avg Margin | 4.0pts |
| 1225.0m | Run Metres | 1183.8m |
| 6.3 | Clean Breaks | 4.8 |
| 313.0 | Tackles | 285.6 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 9.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse Olympique | R1 W · R2 W · R3 L · R4 L | 16.0 |
| St Helens | R1 L · R2 W · R3 W · R4 W | 21.6 |

### H2H History (Last 4) — Tied 2-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | St Helens | 0 – 46 | Toulouse Olympique | St Helens 67% ✗ |
| 2022 | R27 | St Helens | 36 – 16 | Toulouse Olympique | not priced |
| 2022 | R14 | Toulouse Olympique | 14 – 28 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2022 | R6 | Toulouse Olympique | 22 – 20 | St Helens | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Toulouse Olympique's best path is the right edge: Super League's 7th-ranked right edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 7th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Rennie, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- St Helens' best path is the right edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.75 tries/game) runs at a Toulouse Olympique defence ranked 12th there (1.75 conceded/game). Key man: Feldt, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Toulouse Olympique | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.75/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0.5/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.75/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 1.25/g (att 10th) · concedes 1/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 2/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.75/g (def 12th (weak)) | 1.75/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 0 | 4 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 114m/g | 206m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4/g | 6.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.8% | 92.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 12 | 8 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 572m/g | 407m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 22.5/g | 15.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.3/g | 2.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.1% | 81.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 1 | 4 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 320m/g | 353m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.8/g | 8.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.9% | 92.7% |

**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.44/g (lg 0.46) -4% · Wingers 0.77/g (lg 0.94) -18% · Five-Eighths 0.15/g (lg 0.19) -21%
**Who scores on Toulouse Olympique** — Centres 1.25/g (lg 0.46) +172% · Wingers 1.5/g (lg 0.94) +60% · Fullbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.25) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Ernest Wallon. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Toulouse Olympique** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olly Ashall-Bott | FB | 4 in 4g | 4/4g (2·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 50% | — | — |
| 1 | Oliver Ashall-Bott | FB | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 7/13g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Luke Polselli | WG | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 3 | Reubenn Rennie | CE | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 25% | — | — |
| 4 | Romeo Tropis | CE | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 33% | — | — |
| 5 | Benjamin Laguerre | WG | 2 in 4g | 2/5g (0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 2/2g | 40% | — | 🏉 63' |
| 6 | Thomas Lacans | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Shorrocks | HB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| 8 | Lambert Belmas | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 3% | — | — |
| 9 | Brendan Hands | HK | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Tyler Dupree | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 4% | — | 🏉 72' |
| 11 | Pierre Lima | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Mathieu Jussaume | 2R | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/7g | 19% | — | — |
| 13 | Anthony Marion | LK | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/10g | 9% | — | — |
| 14 | Joe Cator | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Bretherton | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/10g | 7% | — | — |
| 16 | James Roumanos | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Robert Butler | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harry Robertson | FB | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 2 | Owen Dagnall | WG | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| 3 | Mark Percival | CE | no games | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Deon Cross | CE | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 32% | — | 🏉 29' |
| 5 | Lewis Murphy | WG | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 46% | — | 🏉 11' 19' |
| 6 | Jackson Hastings | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Tristan Sailor | HB | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | George Delaney | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Jake Wingfield | HK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Agnatius Paasi | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 10% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 11 | Matt Whitley | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Shane Wright | 2R | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | David Klemmer | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 21' |
| 14 | Noah Stephens | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| 15 | George Whitby | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Jake Davies | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Alfie Sinclair | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Toulouse Olympique 1462 · St Helens 1608 · ELO difference: 147 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | St Helens |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | St Helens |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — St Helens predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)