Toulouse Olympique
St Helens
AI Win Probability
Toulouse Olympique
48%
St Helens
52%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives St Helens a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees St Helens ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. St Helens carry a 147-point ELO rating advantage (1608 vs 1462). Recent form favours St Helens with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Toulouse Olympique. The margin model predicts St Helens by 1.8 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
St Helens to Win @1.92
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
St Helens -1.8 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
St Helens 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Toulouse Olympique | R1W R2W R3L R4L older → newer | 16.0 |
St Helens | R1L R2W R3W R4W | 21.6 |
Avg Conceded
23.6
Toulouse Olympique
17.6
St Helens
Avg Margin
-7.6
Toulouse Olympique
4.0
St Helens
Run Metres
1104
Toulouse Olympique
1177
St Helens
Clean Breaks
5.2
Toulouse Olympique
4.8
St Helens
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
St Helens predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: -1.8