# Warrington Wolves v Castleford Tigers — Super League Round 5 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warrington Wolves 72 – 6 Castleford Tigers

_Warrington Wolves put Castleford Tigers to the sword._

Half time: 32 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warrington Wolves 73% / Castleford Tigers 27% · Halliwell Jones Stadium · Sun, 22 Mar, 02:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Warrington Wolves: Matty Ashton (6' 1st), Matty Ashton (13' 1st), Ben Currie (18'), Kelepi Tanginoa (27'), Kelepi Tanginoa (34'), Kelepi Tanginoa (42'), Albert Hopoate (45'), Ben Currie (47'), Kelepi Tanginoa (52'), Sam Stone (62'), James Harrison (72'), Matty Ashton (75' 1st) · Castleford Tigers: Semi Valemei (23')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | 73% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 27% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.0 predicted → 66 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warrington Wolves vs Castleford Tigers Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 5 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Warrington Wolves 72–6 Castleford Tigers in Super League Round 5 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Castleford Tigers had one bright passage in this and it came just after the 20-minute mark. Semi Valemei crossed in the 23rd minute to get the scoreboard moving, Tom Weaver added the conversion, and for about a minute the margin sat at a manageable 20-6. That's about as good as it got.

Everything else went the other way. Castleford finished with 11 errors to Warrington's 3, and against a side building the kind of go-forward Warrington had on the night, that ratio was always going to hurt. They managed one line break all match. Warrington had 12. The tackle bust count told the same story, 11 for Castleford against 33 for Warrington, and it's hard to build field position when you're not getting past the first defender.

Discipline didn't help either. Eight penalties conceded to Warrington's four meant more sets closer to their own line, more ball in Warrington hands, more chances for a side that clearly didn't need the extra invitations. The pre-match numbers had flagged the halves gap as the widest of the lot, 1159 to 615, and a night like this is exactly what that kind of mismatch can produce when it's let loose.

Warrington Wolves won 72-6 at Halliwell Jones Stadium, and the scoreboard was already out of reach early. Ewan Irwin kicked a penalty inside two minutes, Matty Ashton scored the first of his three tries in the 6th, and by half-time it was 32-6. From there Warrington simply kept adding to it. Kelepi Tanginoa crossed four times, Ben Currie twice, and Albert Hopoate, Sam Stone and James Harrison all got on the sheet as the game wore into its final quarter without any sign of Castleford closing the gap.

The run metres gap, 1,641 to 655, says plenty about which forward pack was doing the heavy lifting, and it lines up with the pre-match forward rating edge of 877 to 794, though the gap on the day ran well past what that number alone suggested. Warrington's handling stayed tidy throughout, just 3 errors against Castleford's 11, and that kind of composure with the ball in hand let them keep the scoreboard ticking over from the second half onward, adding tries in the 42nd, 45th, 47th, 52nd, 62nd, 72nd and 75th minutes.

Alphr's model backed Warrington Wolves at 73% and got the winner right. The margin was another matter. It had Warrington by 6 in a game worth 48 points combined, and instead got a 66-point blowout in a 78-point match. Warrington's form line coming in, three wins from their last five, hinted at a side building something. Nobody had it building to this.

**Key Match Stats**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| **1,641** | Run metres | 655 |
| **12** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **33** | Tackle busts | 11 |
| **12** | Offloads | 9 |
| **3** | Errors | 11 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 8 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Tries | 1 |
| 12/14 | Goals | 1/1 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 3 | Errors | 11 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warrington Wolves to win at 73% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.0 but the actual margin was 66 points. The game's 78 points came in 30 points higher than the predicted 48. Warrington Wolves led 32–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 66. The model went 1/2 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (24/100) — penalties Warrington Wolves 4 · Castleford Tigers 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warrington Wolves to win — model probability 73.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warrington Wolves — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warrington Wolves 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 6 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Warrington Wolves here: 73% to see off Castleford Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warrington Wolves sit 143 ELO points clear, 1491 to 1348. Form leans Warrington Wolves' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Castleford Tigers.

Warrington Wolves own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Warrington Wolves by 6.0, with the two sides combining for about 48. Warrington Wolves to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 22.2pts | Avg Score | 18.0pts |
| 24.4pts | Avg Conceded | 21.2pts |
| -2.2pts | Avg Margin | -3.2pts |
| 1042.2m | Run Metres | 1045.2m |
| 3.8 | Clean Breaks | 5.4 |
| 271.0 | Tackles | 290.2 |
| 6.0 | Errors | 8.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | R1 W · R3 W · R4 W | 22.2 |
| Castleford Tigers | R1 L · R2 L · R3 W · R4 L | 18.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warrington Wolves lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Castleford Tigers | 18 – 48 | Warrington Wolves | Warrington Wolves 62% ✓ |
| 2025 | R19 | Castleford Tigers | 20 – 14 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2025 | R13 | Warrington Wolves | 34 – 24 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2024 | R23 | Castleford Tigers | 6 – 28 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2024 | R3 | Warrington Wolves | 30 – 8 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the right edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 14th there (2.25 conceded/game). Key man: Thewlis, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the middle: Super League's 5th-ranked middle attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 11th there (2.33 conceded/game). Key man: Lawler, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warrington Wolves | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.67/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.33/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.25/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 2.67/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 2.33/g (def 11th (weak)) | 2/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1.67/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th) | 0.75/g (att 9th) · concedes 2.25/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 6th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 2 | 2 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 3.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 182m/g | 75m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.7/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.2% | 89.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 7 | 4 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 515m/g | 418m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.7/g | 15.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 3/g | 2.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.3% | 86.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 6th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 1 | 1 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 267m/g | 297m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.7/g | 6.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 95.4% | 94.6% |

**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.1/g (lg 0.05) +100% · Fullbacks 0.43/g (lg 0.25) +72% · Wingers 1.48/g (lg 0.94) +57%
**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.17) +47% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36% · Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.1) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Halliwell Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Thewlis | FB | 3 in 3g | 8/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·2·1·0·2) | 3/11g | 26/50g | 48% | — | — |
| 2 | Matthew Ashton | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 3 | Toby King | CE | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 9/19g | 21/41g | 42% | — | — |
| 4 | Albert Hopoate | CE | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (1·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 67% | — | 🏉 45' |
| 5 | Joshua Smith | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | George Williams | 5/8 | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 7/18g | 12/42g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Ewan Irwin | HB | no games | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Luke Yates | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 2/23g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 9/56g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Kelepi Tanginoa | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/10g | 16% | — | 🏉 27' 34' 42' 52' |
| 12 | Samuel Stone | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 62' |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 9/25g | 14/64g | 10% | — | 🏉 18' 47' |
| 14 | James Harrison | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 5/26g | 16% | — | 🏉 72' |
| 15 | Jordan Crowther | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/9g | 2/19g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Joe Philbin | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/18g | 2/51g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Lachlan Webster | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zac Cini | FB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 2 | Mikaele Ravalawa | WG | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| 3 | Darnell Mcintosh | CE | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/14g | 0/4g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Semi Valemei | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 23' |
| 5 | Balami Qareqare | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Daejarn Asi | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Thomas Weaver | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Ashworth | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | George Lawler | HK | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/14g | 2/7g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Brock Greacen | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Jordan Lane | 2R | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 1/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | George Hirst | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Stimson | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Renouf Atoni | INT | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Jimmy Beckett | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Aiden Doolan | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Sam Hall | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/3g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warrington Wolves 1491 · Castleford Tigers 1348 · ELO difference: 143 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Warrington Wolves |

**Model Confidence: 73%** — Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)