Warrington Wolves
Castleford Tigers
AI Win Probability
Warrington Wolves
73%
Castleford Tigers
27%
AI Match Overview
Warrington Wolves are clear favourites here at 73%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Castleford Tigers. The model sees Warrington Wolves ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Warrington Wolves carry a 143-point ELO rating advantage (1491 vs 1348). Recent form favours Warrington Wolves with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts Warrington Wolves by 6.0 points with a combined total of 48.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Warrington Wolves to Win @1.37
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
Warrington Wolves +6 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Warrington Wolves 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Warrington Wolves | R1W R3W R4W older → newer | 22.2 |
Castleford Tigers | R1L R2L R3W R4L | 18.0 |
Avg Conceded
24.4
Warrington Wolves
21.2
Castleford Tigers
Avg Margin
-2.2
Warrington Wolves
-3.2
Castleford Tigers
Run Metres
1038
Warrington Wolves
1039
Castleford Tigers
Clean Breaks
3.8
Warrington Wolves
5.4
Castleford Tigers
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
73%
Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 48 · Line: +6.0