# Wigan Warriors v York Knights — Super League Round 5 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wigan Warriors 23 – 22 York Knights

_Wigan Warriors surge back to go to war with York Knights._

Half time: 10 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wigan Warriors 79% / York Knights 21% · The Brick Community Stadium · Fri, 20 Mar, 07:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Wigan Warriors: Liam Marshall (28'), Liam Marshall (30'), Noah Hodkinson (50'), Adam Keighran (63') · York Knights: David Nofoaluma (11' 1st), Paul Vaughan (18'), Ata Hingano (75')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 79% | Won |
| York Knights | 21% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 21.4 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wigan Warriors vs York Knights Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 5 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Wigan Warriors 23–22 York Knights in Super League Round 5 at The Brick Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

York Knights led by ten points inside the first half hour, and for a while it looked like Wigan Warriors might be swimming against the tide all afternoon. David Nofoaluma crossed in the 11th minute, Paul Vaughan added another in the 18th, and a Danny Richardson penalty goal in the 24th had the visitors out to 14-0. That's a scoreline that usually settles a game down, not fires one up.

Wigan Warriors had other ideas. Liam Marshall crossed twice inside three minutes either side of the half-hour mark, the second try dragging the home side back to 10-14 by the break. Wigan Warriors trailed at half-time, which the pre-match numbers didn't love the look of, but the gap was shrinking fast and the scoreboard pressure had shifted onto York Knights without them realising it yet.

The second half is where the arm-wrestle turned into a shootout. Noah Hodkinson levelled it at 14-14 in the 50th minute, Adam Keighran's conversion nudged Wigan Warriors in front, and Richardson's second penalty goal in the 56th had it locked at 16-16. Keighran then finished off his own try in the 63rd minute and added the extras to push the margin out, but York Knights kept swinging. Ata Hingano's try and Richardson's conversion in the 75th minute dragged it back to the final margin, one point, Wigan Warriors 23, York Knights 22.

The stat sheet tells you how each side went about it. York Knights were the tidier outfit with ball in hand, just 5 errors against Wigan Warriors' 9, and they out-busted the tackle count 35 to 28. That's the backline showing up, and it lines up with the pre-match read that had York Knights' backs rated above Wigan Warriors' at 1060 to 923.

But York Knights' discipline let them down when it mattered, conceding 9 penalties to Wigan Warriors' 5, and Wigan Warriors made the line breaks count, 4 to 2, while running for more metres, 1,336 to 1,254. A stronger halves pairing on paper, 998 to 721, had a hand in that, offloads flowing at nearly double the rate, 19 to 8, which is usually a sign the ball's moving through the right hands at the right time.

Alphr's model had Wigan Warriors as clear favourites pre-match, 79% to win, and got the result right. The margin was another story. Tipped by 21.4 points, it landed at 1. The combined total of 45 came in close to the 50 predicted, within 5 points, so the shape of the game, a high-scoring arm-wrestle, was read correctly even if the gap between the two sides wasn't.

York Knights arrived with the worse recent form, two wins from five against Wigan Warriors' four, and an average losing margin of 9.5 points across that stretch. None of that showed up in this one.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **1,336** | Run metres | 1,254 |
| **4** | Line breaks | 2 |
| 28 | Tackle busts | **35** |
| **19** | Offloads | 8 |
| 9 | Errors | **5** |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 9 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 3/4 | Goals | 5/5 |
| 1 | Field Goals | 0 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 9 |
| 9 | Errors | 5 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 79% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 21.4 but the actual margin was 1 points. Total score prediction of 50 was close to the actual 45, within 5 points. Wigan Warriors trailed 10–14 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 23–22. The model went 1/2 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (47/100) — penalties Wigan Warriors 5 · York Knights 9.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 78.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 13-24 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 21 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 79% to see off York Knights. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 270 ELO points clear, 1747 to 1477. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for York Knights.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 21.4, with the two sides combining for about 50. Wigan Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 31.2pts | Avg Score | 20.0pts |
| 12.4pts | Avg Conceded | 29.5pts |
| 18.8pts | Avg Margin | -9.5pts |
| 1321.8m | Run Metres | 1126.5m |
| 6.2 | Clean Breaks | 3.5 |
| 275.2 | Tackles | 312.0 |
| 11.8 | Errors | 9.3 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | R1 W · R2 W · R3 W · R4 W | 31.2 |
| York Knights | R1 W · R2 L · R3 W · R4 L | 20.0 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Wigan Warriors lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R15 | York Knights | 20 – 72 | Wigan Warriors | Wigan Warriors 66% ✓ |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.75 tries/game) runs at a York Knights defence ranked 11th there (1.75 conceded/game). Key man: Eckersley, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- York Knights' best path is the middle: Super League's 4th-ranked middle attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 5th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Vaughan, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wigan Warriors | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.75/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.25/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.5/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.75/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 3.25/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 5th (strong)) | 2/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 2.75/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 2.75/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.25/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.75/g (def 11th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wigan Warriors | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 1 | 1 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 2.5/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 125m/g | 81m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9/g | 3.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.3% | 86.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wigan Warriors | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 4 | 7 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 2.8/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 572m/g | 502m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.8/g | 14.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.8/g | 2.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.2% | 84.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wigan Warriors | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 2 | 3 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 483m/g | 249m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.8/g | 8.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.5% | 91.1% |

**Who scores on York Knights** — Locks 0.25/g (lg 0.04) +525% · Wingers 2/g (lg 0.94) +113% · Fullbacks 0.5/g (lg 0.25) +100%
**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Props 0.13/g (lg 0.14) -7% · 2nd Rows 0.21/g (lg 0.26) -19% · Halfbacks 0.1/g (lg 0.17) -41%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Brick Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Noah Hodkinson | FB | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 50' |
| 2 | Zach Eckersley | WG | 6 in 4g | 12/10g (1·0·2·2·0·1·2·1·1·2) | 0/0g | 13/25g | 54% | — | — |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 3 in 4g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 8/25g | 34% | — | 🏉 63' |
| 4 | Liam Farrell | CE | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 21/63g | 6% | — | — |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 1 in 4g | 7/10g (3·1·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 48/65g | 44% | — | 🏉 28' 30' |
| 6 | Jack Farrimond | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 8/10g (1·2·0·0·0·1·2·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 42% | — | — |
| 7 | Harry Smith | HB | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 14/65g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Ethan Havard | PR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/47g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Joseph Havard | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Bradley O'neill | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/22g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 8/35g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Sam Walters | 2R | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 6/24g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/50g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Patrick Mago | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/13g | 3% | — | — |
| 15 | Oliver Partington | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/26g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Samuel Eseh | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Nathan Lowe | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**York Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toa Mata'afa | FB | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 2 | Ben Jones-Bishop | WG | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·1·1) | 11/10g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 3 | Sam Wood | CE | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/4g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Nikau Williams | CE | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 5 | Mark Nofoaluma | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Danny Richardson | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Ata Hingano | HB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 8 | Xavier Va'a | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Paul McShane | HK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 12% | — | 🏉 18' |
| 11 | Jesse Dee | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Josh Griffin | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 1/5g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Sam Cook | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Martin | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Justin Sangare | INT | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Oli Field | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wigan Warriors 1747 · York Knights 1477 · ELO difference: 270 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | York Knights |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 79%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 21 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)