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Super League | Round 5

alphr.com.au

THE BRICK COMMUNITY STADIUM • THURSDAY 19 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
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WIG

Wigan Warriors

2322
YRK

York Knights

✅ Model correct — backed Wigan Warriors at 79%

AI Win Probability

79%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

Wigan Warriors

79%

York Knights

21%

AI Match Overview

Wigan Warriors are clear favourites here at 79%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over York Knights. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Wigan Warriors carry a 270-point ELO rating advantage (1747 vs 1477). Recent form favours Wigan Warriors with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for York Knights. The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 21.4 points with a combined total of 50.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.27

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors +21.4 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 13-24 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wigan Warriors
R1W
R2W
R3W
R4W

older → newer

31.2
York Knights
R1W
R2L
R3W
R4L
20.0

Avg Conceded

12.4

Wigan Warriors

29.5

York Knights

Avg Margin

18.8

Wigan Warriors

-9.5

York Knights

Run Metres

1316

Wigan Warriors

1121

York Knights

Clean Breaks

6.2

Wigan Warriors

3.5

York Knights

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WIG
1747Overall1477
YRK
ELO difference: +270 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

803Forwards785
Best: 1075WIG +17Best: 1057
923Backs1060
Best: 1122YRK +137Best: 1314
998Halves721
Best: 998WIG +277Best: 721
640Hooker600
WIG +40

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WIG
Stat
YRK
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
31.2pts
Avg Score
20.0pts
12.4pts
Avg Conceded
29.5pts
18.8pts
Avg Margin
-9.5pts
1315.6m
Run Metres
1120.8m
6.2
Clean Breaks
3.5
275.2
Tackles
312.0
11.8
Errors
9.3

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Knights
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Warriors
5
Halves Control9.0%
Warriors
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Warriors
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

79%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 21 points

Predicted total: 50 · Line: +21.4

3/4 match predictions correct