Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Panthers
56%
Storm
44%
AI Match Overview
Panthers hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Storm are far from out of this at 44%. The model sees Panthers ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Panthers carry a 106-point ELO rating advantage (1694 vs 1588). The margin model predicts Panthers by 4.6 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.42
Winner ✓
Edge
-11.1%
Line / Spread
Storm +8.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Panthers 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 43.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Panthers | WWWWL | 30.4 |
Storm | WWWWL | 32.0 |
Avg Conceded
10.4
Panthers
14.8
Storm
Avg Margin
20.0
Panthers
17.2
Storm
Run Metres
1818
Panthers
1905
Storm
Line Breaks
4.3
Panthers
7.7
Storm
Each team's win rate when Ashley Klein refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Storm hold a 14‑point edge: 40W–23L (63%) vs Panthers's 27W–28L (49%) across all games Ashley Klein has refereed for each side. His games average 43.4 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Panthers an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
43.4 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
Panthers predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +4.6
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.