# Panthers v Storm — NRL Round 5 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Panthers 50 – 10 Storm

_Panthers put Storm to the sword._

Half time: 26 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Panthers 56% / Storm 44% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 03 Apr, 08:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Panthers: Liam Martin (5' 1st), Freddy Lussick (10'), Thomas Jenkins (22' Tipped ⚡), Nathan Cleary (25'), Casey McLean (39' Tipped ⚡), Brian To'o (43' Tipped ⚡), Luke Garner (59'), Dylan Edwards (71' Tipped ⚡), Thomas Jenkins (77' Tipped ⚡) · Storm: Manaia Waitere (14'), Sualauvi Faalogo (66')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 56% | Won |
| Storm | 44% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.6 predicted → 40 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Penrith Panthers vs Melbourne Storm Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 5 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Apr 2026, 12:36 pm · Last updated: 3 Apr 2026, 09:51 pm_

Panthers 50–10 Storm in NRL Round 5 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-six to six at the break, and the Storm still had a pulse. By full-time it read 50-10, so whatever plan Melbourne had for the second half, it didn't survive contact.

Panthers had already done the damage by half-time, four tries to one, Liam Martin opening the account in the fourth minute and Freddy Lussick following up six minutes later. Manaia Waitere got one back for Storm at the 14th, but Thomas Jenkins and Nathan Cleary crossed either side of the 20-minute mark to push it out to 18-6, and Casey McLean's try just before the break made it 24-6 before the conversion tidied it up to 26.

The second half didn't rewrite anything, it just confirmed the arithmetic. Brian To'o crossed early after the restart to make it 30-6, Luke Garner added another at the 58th, and by the time Sualauvi Faalogo scored Storm's second at the 66th it was already 38-10 and academic. Dylan Edwards and a second from Thomas Jenkins closed it out, Jenkins finishing with a double.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard suggests: Panthers simply had more ball and did more with it. Fifty-five per cent possession, 1,958 running metres to 1,184, and 688 post-contact metres tells you they were getting go-forward even when Storm had numbers in the tackle. Ten line breaks to two and 34 tackle breaks to 19 is a gulf, not a margin.

Storm were actually the tidier side with the ball in hand, completing at 94% to Panthers' 86% and coughing up only five errors to eight. Doesn't matter much when your defence misses 34 tackles to the opposition's 19. That's the number that decides a 40-point margin more than any of the attacking stats. Storm's 766 kicking metres to 631 says they controlled territory reasonably well, they just couldn't stop what Panthers did with the ball once they had it back.

The pre-match numbers pointed this way without predicting quite how far it would go. Panthers came in rated above Storm across every positional group, forwards 1219 to 1084, halves 1161 to 1085, backs 1160 to 1111. Storm's last-five form actually had a slightly higher average score and more line breaks per game, but they were also conceding 16.8 points a game to Panthers' 9.2, and that defensive gap is exactly what got exposed.

Alphr's model backed Panthers at 56% and got the winner right, but the margin call was nowhere close. It had Panthers by 4.6 on a combined total of 43. The actual margin was 40, on a total of 60. Missed by a fair distance, not a shading. Wins and misses, all of it, and this one's filed under the second category for the margin, first for the result.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 26 | 24 | 50 |
| Storm | 6 | 4 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Panthers | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| **55%** | Possession | 45% |
| 86% | Completion rate | **94%** |
| **1,958** | Run metres | 1,184 |
| **688** | Post-contact metres | 489 |
| **10** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **34** | Tackle breaks | 19 |
| **11** | Offloads | 5 |
| **92.4%** | Effective tackle % | 88.8% |
| **19** | Missed tackles | 34 |
| 8 | Errors | **5** |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **4** |
| 631 | Kick metres | **766** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 56% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.6 but the actual margin was 40 points. The game's 60 points came in 18 points higher than the predicted 43. Panthers led 26–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 40. The model went 5/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (379 career games). The combined score of 60 points was 17 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Panthers bucked the trend, Storm historically win 63% of games under Ashley Klein, but couldn't convert that edge today. Panthers's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Liam Martin (Panthers) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 10' Try — Freddy Lussick (Panthers) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 14' Try — Manaia Waitere (Storm) — 10-4 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 21' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 14-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 24' Try — Nathan Cleary (Panthers) — 18-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 39' Try — Casey McLean (Panthers) — 24-6 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 42' Try — Brian To'o (Panthers) — 30-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 58' Try — Luke Garner (Panthers) — 36-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 66' Try — Sualauvi Faalogo (Storm) — 38-10 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 71' Try — Dylan Edwards (Panthers) — 42-10 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 76' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 48-10 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.42 (edge -11.1%) — model probability 55.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 5 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Panthers are the call at 56%, but Storm stay live at 44%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Panthers sit 106 ELO points clear, 1694 to 1588. Form leans Panthers' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Storm.

Panthers own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Panthers by 4.6, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Panthers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Panthers have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Panthers took the most recent meeting 22-14 in 2026 Round 25.

Panthers are 11-3 at home this year. Storm have put up 126 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Panthers 1st against Storm 7th.

The market has Panthers favourites, Panthers $1.42 and Storm $2.88, with the line at Panthers -8.5 and the total at 43.5.

Ashley Klein has the whistle: home sides win 60% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Panthers 6 · Storm 4 |
| Last meeting | Panthers 22-14 |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 95 for, 54 against |
| Panthers at home | 11-3 this season |
| Storm last 4 | WLWW · 126 for, 82 against |
| Storm away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Panthers 1st · Storm 7th |
| Finals odds | Panthers 100% · Storm 0% |
| Market | Panthers $1.42 · Storm $2.88 |
| Line | Panthers -8.5 · total 43.5 |
| Referee | Ashley Klein |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Ashley Klein** — 379 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 27W–28L | 49% |
| Storm | 40W–23L | 63% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Storm hold a 14-point edge: 40W–23L (63%) vs Panthers's 27W–28L (49%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Panthers | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 30.8pts | Avg Score | 31.6pts |
| 9.2pts | Avg Conceded | 16.8pts |
| 21.6pts | Avg Margin | 14.8pts |
| 1785.8m | Run Metres | 1802.0m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 7.4 |
| 323.0 | Tackles | 316.6 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 8.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | PF L · R1 W · R2 W · R3 W · R4 W | 30.8 |
| Storm | PF W · R1 W · R2 W · R3 L · R4 L | 31.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Storm lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | Storm | 14 – 22 | Panthers |
| 2025 | R24 | Panthers | 18 – 22 | Storm |
| 2025 | R3 | Storm | 30 – 24 | Panthers |
| 2024 | GF | Storm | 6 – 14 | Panthers |
| 2024 | R24 | Panthers | 22 – 24 | Storm |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Panthers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (3.25 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 10th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Jenkins, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Storm's best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.25 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 4th there (0.75 conceded/game). Key man: Warbrick, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Panthers | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 3.25/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 1.75/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 0.25/g (def 1st (strong)) | 2.75/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.75/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 4th (strong)) | 2.25/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.75/g (def 12th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Panthers | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 0 | 4 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 2.5/g | 3/g |
| Run Metres | 193m/g | 305m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.8/g | 9.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.3% | 83.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Panthers | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 5 | 17 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 778m/g | 686m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.3/g | 18/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.5/g | 4.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.1% | 78% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Panthers | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 1 | 3 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 561m/g | 551m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10/g | 9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 1.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.7% | 92.4% |

**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.34/g (lg 1.26) +6% · Centres 0.62/g (lg 0.71) -13% · Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.09) -22%
**Who scores on Panthers** — 2nd Rows 0.48/g (lg 0.47) +2% · Hookers 0.12/g (lg 0.13) -8% · Fullbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.42) -21%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 3 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 2/14g | 7/17g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 71' |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 10 in 4g | 13/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·2·2·4·2) | 0/3g | 8/10g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.54 AI 56% ✓ Scored | 🏉 22' 77' |
| 3 | Paul Alamoti | CE | 1 in 4g | 9/10g (0·1·2·0·3·2·0·0·0·1) | 3/4g | 5/10g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 75% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 24% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Casey McLean | CE | 2 in 4g | 6/10g (0·2·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 7/12g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 39' |
| 5 | Brian To'o | WG | 2 in 4g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·2·0·0·1·1·0) | 11/14g | 5/16g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.75 AI 48% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | 5/8 | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 7/21g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | HB | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/15g | 4/19g | 28% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/17g | 0/20g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Freddy Lussick | HK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 4% | — | 🏉 10' |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | PR | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 3/14g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Isaiah Papali'i | 2R | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/13g | 7/32g | 32% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Martin | 2R | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 3/16g | 18% | — | 🏉 5' |
| 13 | Isaah Yeo | LK | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/18g | 1/18g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Cogger | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Billy Phillips | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Scott Sorensen | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 1/13g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Luke Garner | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 6/26g | 18% | — | 🏉 59' |

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sualauvi Faalogo | FB | 7 in 4g | 11/10g (1·0·0·2·0·1·2·3·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 51% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 2 | Will Warbrick | WG | 6 in 4g | 10/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·1·1·0·4) | 0/6g | 1/2g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Nick Meaney | CE | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 7/17g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown | WG | 0 in 4g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/18g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | HB | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/13g | 1/4g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.10 AI 27% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/9g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Harry Grant | HK | 3 in 4g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 4/14g | 6/12g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.10 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Chan | 2R | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 13% | — | — |
| 12 | Alec MacDonald | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Tyran Wishart | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/5g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Davvy Moale | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Hetherington | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Cooper Clarke | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Panthers 1694 · Storm 1588 · ELO difference: 106 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Panthers | Storm | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1219 | 1084 | Panthers +135 |
| Backs | 1160 | 1111 | Panthers +49 |
| Halves | 1161 | 1085 | Panthers +76 |
| Hooker | 1167 | 1125 | Panthers +42 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Panthers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Panthers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Panthers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Panthers |

**Model Confidence: 56%** — Panthers predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-03 10:51 UTC (latest tip update)