Win Probability
AI Game Review
Knights defied the model's 57% prediction for Raiders, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.0 but the actual margin was 20 points. Total score prediction of 49 was close to the actual 44, within 5 points. Knights led 10–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 5/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (288 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Knights bucked the trend, Raiders historically win 54% of games under Adam Gee, but couldn't convert that edge today. Knights's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Knights
43%
Raiders
57%
AI Match Overview
Raiders hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Knights are far from out of this at 43%. Knights are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors, including Recent Win Rate, Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage, but Raiders counter with overall balance which tips the scales. Recent form favours Knights with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Raiders. The margin model predicts Raiders by 2.0 points with a combined total of 49.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Raiders to Win @1.61
Lost ✗
Edge
-1.4%
Line / Spread
Knights +4.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Raiders 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 47.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Knights | R2025-R27L R2026-R1W R2026-R2W R2026-R3L R2026-R4W older → newer | 22.0 |
Raiders | R2025-R29L R2026-R1W R2026-R2L R2026-R3L R2026-R4L | 15.8 |
Avg Conceded
30.8
Knights
29.6
Raiders
Avg Margin
-8.8
Knights
-13.8
Raiders
Run Metres
1575
Knights
1614
Raiders
Line Breaks
4.2
Knights
4.8
Raiders
Referee Indicator
Favours RaidersAdam Gee
288 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Adam Gee officiates, Raiders have won 22 of 41 games (54%), significantly stronger than Knights's 8 from 28 (29%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.7 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Knights get a +-0.1 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Raiders's -0.8. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Knights hold the ELO advantage (1444 vs 1442), but the market favours Raiders (@1.61).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Raiders predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 49 · Line: -2.0
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.