AI Win Probability
Knights
43%
Raiders
57%
AI Match Overview
Raiders hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Knights are far from out of this at 43%. Knights are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors — including Recent Win Rate, Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage — but Raiders counter with overall balance which tips the scales. Recent form favours Knights with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Raiders. The margin model predicts Raiders by 2.0 points with a combined total of 49.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Raiders to Win @1.61
Edge
-1.4%
Line / Spread
Knights +4.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Raiders 1-12 @2.55
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 47.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Knights | WWWLL | 22.4 |
Raiders | WLLLL | 17.0 |
Avg Conceded
31.6
Knights
28.6
Raiders
Avg Margin
-9.2
Knights
-11.6
Raiders
Run Metres
1425
Knights
1671
Raiders
Line Breaks
3.5
Knights
4.7
Raiders
Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Adam Gee officiates, Raiders have won 22 of 41 games (54%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Knights's 8 from 28 (29%). That's a 25‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 42.7 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Knights an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
42.7 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
ELO–Market Disagreement
Knights hold the ELO advantage (1444 vs 1442), but the market favours Raiders (@1.61).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Raiders predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 49 · Line: -2.0
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.