# Knights v Raiders — NRL Round 5 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Knights 32 – 12 Raiders

_Knights conquer Raiders._

Half time: 10 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Knights 43% / Raiders 57% · McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle · Sun, 05 Apr, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Knights: Greg Marzhew (28' Tipped ⚡), Fletcher Sharpe (33' Tipped ⚡), Dominic Young (43' Tipped ⚡), Phoenix Crossland (48'), Greg Marzhew (69' Tipped ⚡), Dominic Young (77' Tipped ⚡) · Raiders: Simi Sasagi (11' 1st), Ethan Strange (71' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 57% | Lost |
| Knights | 43% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.0 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 5 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Apr 2026, 12:36 pm · Last updated: 5 Apr 2026, 06:02 pm_

Knights 32–12 Raiders in NRL Round 5 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twelve completion errors from the Raiders against Newcastle's 86% completion rate, and that's most of the story right there. Knights beat Canberra 32-12 at McDonald Jones Stadium, and it was built on doing the simple stuff without dropping it.

The Raiders actually landed the first blow. Simi Sasagi crossed in the 10th minute for a 4-0 lead, and on paper this was meant to be a tight one, with Alphr's model giving Canberra a 57% chance and pencilling in a 2-point win their way. Didn't happen. Greg Marzhew levelled things up by the 28th minute and Fletcher Sharpe put Newcastle in front four minutes later, and from 8-6 the home side never trailed again.

The sin bin to Savelio Tamale in the 42nd minute was the hinge point. A minute later Dominic Young scored to make it 14-6, and Phoenix Crossland followed it up in the 47th for 18-6. That's 10 points inside five minutes with Canberra down a man, and it turned a two-score margin into something the Raiders were never going to claw back from. Marzhew's second in the 69th made it 24-6 before Ethan Strange got one back for Canberra, and Young's second try in the 76th put the finishing touch on a 32-12 scoreline.

The stat sheet backs up what the eye saw. Newcastle held 54% of the ball and turned it over just 12 times to Canberra's 14, completing at 86% against 74%. When one side is holding the ball more and doing more with it, the other side spends its night chasing. Newcastle also ran for 2,011 metres to 1,678, with 585 post-contact metres doing plenty of the damage, and cracked five line breaks to Canberra's three.

Not everything favoured the Knights. Canberra actually won the tackle break count 41 to 36 and made fewer missed tackles, 36 to 41, so there were moments they were the more dangerous side with ball in hand. Effective tackle percentage was near enough dead level, 87.0% to 86.8%. But none of that matters much when you're leaking territory, and Newcastle's 554 kicking metres to 440 kept Canberra pinned back for long stretches.

This one also sits oddly against the pre-match numbers. Canberra came in rated stronger up front, 980 to 919, and stronger in the halves too, 972 to 939. On paper that's meant to be the difference. Instead it was Newcastle's completion rate and discipline, conceding five penalties to six, that did the deciding. Form lines told a bit of the story too: Newcastle arrived on three wins from five, Canberra just the one, and the Raiders' last-five run reads LWLLL, a side that's been leaking more than it's building.

Alphr's model had the total about right, tipping 49 points against an actual 44. The margin read was the miss, forecasting a 2-point Raiders win against a 20-point Knights beatdown, and the model finished 5 from 17 on the night. Fair to say Canberra's completion rate did more to shape this result than any rating ever could.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knights | 10 | 22 | 32 |
| Raiders | 6 | 6 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Knights | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| **54%** | Possession | 46% |
| **86%** | Completion rate | 74% |
| **2,011** | Run metres | 1,678 |
| **585** | Post-contact metres | 539 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 3 |
| 36 | Tackle breaks | **41** |
| **12** | Offloads | 8 |
| 86.8% | Effective tackle % | **87.0%** |
| 41 | Missed tackles | **36** |
| **12** | Errors | 14 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| **554** | Kick metres | 440 |

**Model Report Card**

Knights defied the model's 57% prediction for Raiders, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.0 but the actual margin was 20 points. Total score prediction of 49 was close to the actual 44, within 5 points. Knights led 10–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 5/17 on this match. Knights covered the 4.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (288 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Knights bucked the trend, Raiders historically win 54% of games under Adam Gee, but couldn't convert that edge today. Knights's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 10' Try — Simi Sasagi (Raiders) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 28' Try — Greg Marzhew (Knights) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 32' Try — Fletcher Sharpe (Knights) — 8-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 42' Sin Bin — Savelio Tamale (Raiders) — 8-6 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 43' Try — Dominic Young (Knights) — 14-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 47' Try — Phoenix Crossland (Knights) — 18-6 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 69' Try — Greg Marzhew (Knights) — 24-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 71' Try — Ethan Strange (Raiders) — 26-10 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 76' Try — Dominic Young (Knights) — 30-12 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.61 (edge -1.4%) — model probability 57.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Knights +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Raiders 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 2 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Raiders are the call at 57%, but Knights stay live at 43%. Form leans Knights' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Raiders.

Raiders own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Halves Control and Referee Tendency. The margin model has Raiders by 2.0, with the two sides combining for about 49. Lean Raiders, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Knights have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 30-24 in 2026 Round 23.

Knights have won 3 straight. Raiders have put up 128 points in four games. Raiders have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Knights 4th against Raiders 15th.

The market has Raiders favourites, Knights $2.31 and Raiders $1.61, with the line at Knights +4.5 and the total at 47.5.

Adam Gee has the whistle.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Knights 6 · Raiders 4 |
| Last meeting | Knights 30-24 |
| Knights last 4 | LWWW · 86 for, 80 against |
| Knights at home | 8-4 this season |
| Raiders last 4 | LWLW · 128 for, 114 against |
| Raiders away | 6-6 this season |
| Ladder | Knights 4th · Raiders 15th |
| Finals odds | Knights 100% · Raiders 0% |
| Market | Knights $2.31 · Raiders $1.61 |
| Line | Knights +4.5 · total 47.5 |
| Referee | Adam Gee |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Raiders

**Adam Gee** — 288 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 8W–20L | 29% |
| Raiders | 22W–19L | 54% |

Avg total: 42.7 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Adam Gee officiates, Raiders have won 22 of 41 games (54%), significantly stronger than Knights's 8 from 28 (29%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Knights | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 22.0pts | Avg Score | 15.8pts |
| 30.8pts | Avg Conceded | 29.6pts |
| -8.8pts | Avg Margin | -13.8pts |
| 1575.2m | Run Metres | 1614.4m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 4.8 |
| 347.4 | Tackles | 360.2 |
| 10.2 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | R27 L · R1 W · R2 W · R3 L · R4 W | 22.0 |
| Raiders | SF L · R1 W · R2 L · R3 L · R4 L | 15.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Raiders lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Raiders | 24 – 30 | Knights |
| 2025 | R21 | Raiders | 44 – 18 | Knights |
| 2025 | R17 | Knights | 18 – 22 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R18 | Raiders | 12 – 16 | Knights |
| 2024 | R1 | Knights | 12 – 28 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Knights' best path is the middle: NRL's 8th-ranked middle attack (1.75 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 13th there (2.25 conceded/game). Key man: Hunt, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Raiders' best path is the left edge: NRL's 9th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 14th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Savage, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Knights | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.25/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.75/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.25/g (def 13th (weak)) | 0.75/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 2.25/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.5/g (att 7th) · concedes 0/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.25/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Knights | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 5 | 1 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 149m/g | 160m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 3.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.1% | 85.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Knights | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 5 | 8 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 756m/g | 793m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 23.8/g | 26/g |
| Line Breaks | 3/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.1% | 77.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Knights | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 5 | 3 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 525m/g | 467m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.8/g | 10.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.1% | 91% |

**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.26/g (lg 0.16) +63% · Centres 1/g (lg 0.71) +41% · 2nd Rows 0.57/g (lg 0.47) +21%
**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.21) +62% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.09) +44% · Props 0.21/g (lg 0.16) +31%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at McDonald Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fletcher Hunt | FB | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 4/8g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 6 in 4g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2·0·3) | 5/8g | 26/31g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.88 AI 54% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' 77' |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/28g | 26/109g | 12% | — | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 20/46g | 28% | 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 3 in 4g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 6/7g | 22/32g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.97 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 28' 69' |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | 1 in 2g | 9/10g (0·3·1·0·1·0·2·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 13/11g | 55% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 21% ✗ Not first | 🏉 33' |
| 7 | Sandon Smith | HB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 4/79g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 6/55g | 2% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 10 | Trey Mooney | PR | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 9% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Lucas | 2R | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 5/27g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/10g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Mat Croker | LK | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 4/44g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Harrison Graham | INT | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 15% | — | — |
| 15 | Tyson Frizell | INT | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 4/21g | 10/55g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Pasami Saulo | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/17g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Cant | RES | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/20g | 0% | — | — |

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·0·1·0·1) | 4/6g | 1/3g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 72% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 3 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| 3 | Simi Sasagi | CE | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/16g | 22% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 2/3g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 3 in 4g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·1) | 3/6g | 1/3g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.77 AI 77% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 6/10g (0·0·3·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 86% ✓ Scored | 🏉 71' |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | HB | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Papalii | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/25g | 3/10g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 1/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 1/14g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/10g | 3/4g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Noah Martin | 2R | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 23% | 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Corey Horsburgh | LK | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Brailey | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 3/42g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Zac Hosking | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Morgan Smithies | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Knights hold the ELO advantage (1444 vs 1442), but the market favours Raiders (@1.61). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Knights 1444 · Raiders 1442 · ELO difference: 1 in favour of Knights

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Knights | Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 919 | 980 | Raiders +61 |
| Backs | 920 | 905 | Knights +14 |
| Halves | 939 | 972 | Raiders +34 |
| Hooker | 947 | 929 | Knights +18 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Raiders |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Knights |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Raiders |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Knights |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Raiders predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r5-knights-v-raiders
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-04-05 08:02 UTC (latest tip update)