Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Dragons
43%
Cowboys
57%
AI Match Overview
Cowboys hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Dragons are far from out of this at 43%. The model sees Cowboys ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Cowboys carry a 124-point ELO rating advantage (1427 vs 1303). Recent form favours Cowboys with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Cowboys by 2.8 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Cowboys to Win @1.70
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.8%
Line / Spread
Cowboys -2.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Cowboys 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dragons | LLLLL | 19.6 |
Cowboys | WWLLL | 25.6 |
Avg Conceded
34.2
Dragons
30.8
Cowboys
Avg Margin
-14.6
Dragons
-5.2
Cowboys
Run Metres
1568
Dragons
1774
Cowboys
Line Breaks
3.0
Dragons
4.0
Cowboys
Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Cowboys hold a 8‑point edge: 1W–2L (33%) vs Dragons's 1W–3L (25%) across all games Wyatt Raymond has refereed for each side. His games average 50.6 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Dragons an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 3 games for Cowboys — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
50.6 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Cowboys predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: -2.8
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.