Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Cowboys to win at 57% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.8 but the actual margin was 32 points. Cowboys led 0–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. The model went 7/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 49.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (40 career games). The combined score of 32 points was 19 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 51. Cowboys's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Cowboys have a 33% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Cowboys prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dragons
43%
Cowboys
57%
AI Match Overview
Cowboys hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Dragons are far from out of this at 43%. The model sees Cowboys ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Cowboys carry a 124-point ELO rating advantage (1427 vs 1303). Recent form favours Cowboys with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Cowboys by 2.8 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Cowboys to Win @1.70
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.8%
Line / Spread
Cowboys -2.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Cowboys 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dragons | R2025-R27L R2026-R1L R2026-R2L R2026-R3L R2026-R4L older → newer | 17.6 |
Cowboys | R2025-R26L R2026-R1L R2026-R2L R2026-R3W R2026-R4W | 24.4 |
Avg Conceded
30.6
Dragons
30.0
Cowboys
Avg Margin
-13.0
Dragons
-5.6
Cowboys
Run Metres
1667
Dragons
1734
Cowboys
Line Breaks
3.2
Dragons
4.8
Cowboys
Referee Indicator
Favours CowboysWyatt Raymond
40 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)
Cowboys hold a 8-point edge: 1W–2L (33%) vs Dragons's 1W–3L (25%). Games average 50.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (3 games for Cowboys).
Avg Total
50.6 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
9.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Dragons get a +1.4 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Cowboys's -1.3.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Cowboys predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: -2.8
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.