# Dragons v Cowboys — NRL Round 5 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Dragons v Cowboys
Sat, 04 Apr, 05:30 pm AEDT · Jubilee Stadium · Round 5

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Cowboys to win @ $1.70 (edge +80.0%) — model probability 56.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Cowboys 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 3 · Predicted total: 44

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dragons | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 17.6pts | Avg Score | 24.4pts |
| 30.6pts | Avg Conceded | 30.0pts |
| -13.0pts | Avg Margin | -5.6pts |
| 1666.8m | Run Metres | 1734.2m |
| 3.2 | Line Breaks | 4.8 |
| 381.0 | Tackles | 316.4 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | R27 L · R1 L · R2 L · R3 L · R4 L | 17.6 |
| Cowboys | R26 L · R1 L · R2 L · R3 W · R4 W | 24.4 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r5-dragons-v-cowboys
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:36 UTC