# NRL Round 5 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Round 5 of the 2026 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 5 at a glance
- 8 matches · 12W–20L on 32 settled picks (38% strike rate) · best value +52.6% edge

## Round 5 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins v Sea Eagles | Dolphins @ $1.35 | Dolphins 60% | LOST |
| Rabbitohs v Bulldogs | Bulldogs @ $2.00 | Bulldogs 59% | LOST |
| Panthers v Storm | Panthers @ $1.42 | Panthers 56% | WON |
| Dragons v Cowboys | Cowboys @ $1.70 | Cowboys 57% | WON |
| Titans v Broncos | Broncos @ $1.22 | Broncos 63% | WON |
| Sharks v Warriors | Sharks @ $1.57 | Sharks 60% | WON |
| Knights v Raiders | Raiders @ $1.61 | Raiders 57% | LOST |
| Eels v Wests Tigers | Eels @ $1.83 | Eels 53% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### Dolphins v Sea Eagles
Thu, 02 Apr, 08:00 pm AEDT · Kayo Stadium · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Dolphins 59.9% / Sea Eagles 40.1%
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.35 (edge -10.4%) — model probability 59.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles +10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 7 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r5-dolphins-v-sea-eagles

### Rabbitohs v Bulldogs
Fri, 03 Apr, 04:05 pm AEDT · Accor Stadium · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Rabbitohs 41.3% / Bulldogs 58.7%
- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $2.00 (edge +10.6%) — model probability 58.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Bulldogs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 1 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r5-rabbitohs-v-bulldogs

### Panthers v Storm
Fri, 03 Apr, 08:00 pm AEDT · CommBank Stadium · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Panthers 55.9% / Storm 44.1%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.42 (edge -11.1%) — model probability 55.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 5 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r5-panthers-v-storm

### Dragons v Cowboys
Sat, 04 Apr, 05:30 pm AEDT · Jubilee Stadium · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Dragons 43.3% / Cowboys 56.7%
- **Head to Head:** Cowboys to win @ $1.70 (edge +80.0%) — model probability 56.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Cowboys 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 3 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r5-dragons-v-cowboys

### Titans v Broncos
Sat, 04 Apr, 07:35 pm AEDT · Cbus Super Stadium · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Titans 37.0% / Broncos 63.0%
- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.22 (edge -14.9%) — model probability 63.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Broncos 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 8 · Predicted total: 52
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r5-titans-v-broncos

### Sharks v Warriors
Sun, 05 Apr, 02:00 pm AEST · Ocean Protect Stadium · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Sharks 59.6% / Warriors 40.4%
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.57 (edge -90.0%) — model probability 59.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 4 · Predicted total: 47
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r5-sharks-v-warriors

### Knights v Raiders
Sun, 05 Apr, 04:05 pm AEST · McDonald Jones Stadium · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Knights 42.5% / Raiders 57.5%
- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.61 (edge -1.4%) — model probability 57.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Knights +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Raiders 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 2 · Predicted total: 49
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r5-knights-v-raiders

### Eels v Wests Tigers
Mon, 06 Apr, 04:05 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Eels 52.7% / Wests Tigers 47.3%
- **Head to Head:** Eels to win @ $1.83 (edge +40.0%) — model probability 52.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wests Tigers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wests Tigers by 1 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r5-eels-v-wests-tigers

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 67.9% | 89/131 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 49.6% | 65/131 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 20.9% | 27/129 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 56.5% | 74/131 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/4 (markdown: /nrl/round/4.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/6 (markdown: /nrl/round/6.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/5
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:33 UTC