# Sharks v Warriors — NRL Round 5 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sharks 36 – 22 Warriors

_Sharks hunt down Warriors._

Half time: 24 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sharks 60% / Warriors 40% · Ocean Protect Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 05 Apr, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sharks: William Kennedy (14' Tipped ⚡), William Kennedy (17' Tipped ⚡), KL Iro (24' Tipped ⚡), Billy Burns (34'), Teig Wilton (50'), Siosifa Talakai (64') · Warriors: Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (5' 1st Tipped ⚡), Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (28' 1st Tipped ⚡), Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (42' 1st Tipped ⚡), Erin Clark (76')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 60% | Won |
| Warriors | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.0 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cronulla Sharks vs New Zealand Warriors Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 5 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Apr 2026, 12:36 pm · Last updated: 5 Apr 2026, 04:17 pm_

Sharks 36–22 Warriors in NRL Round 5 at Ocean Protect Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Dallin Watene-Zelezniak got the Warriors moving inside five minutes, over for the game's opening try to make it 0-4, and for a few minutes Ocean Protect Stadium had the shape of an upset. That lasted about eight. William Kennedy scored twice in the space of four minutes, in the 13th and 17th, and the Sharks never trailed again.

From there it became a contest the home side kept winning. KL Iro stretched it to 16-6 in the 24th minute. Watene-Zelezniak hit back for his second soon after to make it 18-10, but Billy Burns crossed in the 33rd to push the margin past two scores. At half-time it was 24-10, Sharks well clear.

Watene-Zelezniak completed his hat-trick in first-half stoppage time to bring it back to 24-14, and with 40 minutes still to play that's the kind of platform a team wants. Instead the Sharks pulled further away. Teig Wilton scored in the 50th minute, Siosifa Talakai added another in the 63rd, and by the time Erin Clark forced a penalty try in the 76th the margin had swelled to 36-20 before the Warriors grabbed that late score to make it 36-22.

The line break count tells most of the story: 9 to 3 in the Sharks' favour. Every time they found go-forward, they turned it into something. With 34 tackle breaks to 26, they had the Warriors defence working overtime just to get them to ground. Post-contact metres were tighter, 541 to 519, but 1,838 run metres against 1,651 gave the Sharks the platform to keep asking questions all night.

The Warriors actually held the edge in possession, 51% to 49%, and offloaded more often too, 14 times to 10, the sort of numbers that usually suggest a side trying to play with width.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 24 | 12 | 36 |
| Warriors | 10 | 12 | 22 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sharks | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| **80%** | Completion rate | 76% |
| **1,838** | Run metres | 1,651 |
| **541** | Post-contact metres | 519 |
| **9** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **34** | Tackle breaks | 26 |
| 10 | Offloads | **14** |
| **87.4%** | Effective tackle % | 86.2% |
| **26** | Missed tackles | 34 |
| 12 | Errors | 12 |
| 10 | Penalties conceded | **1** |
| 605 | Kick metres | **619** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 60% probability. The predicted margin of 4.0 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. The model went 4/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski officiated this match (72 career games). The combined score of 58 points was 17 points above Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski's career average of 41. Sharks's victory aligns with Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski's historical trend, Sharks have a 58% win rate under this referee. Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski averaged 13.3 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 71% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 13' Try — William Kennedy (Sharks) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 17' Try — William Kennedy (Sharks) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 24' Try — KL Iro (Sharks) — 16-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 27' Try — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) — 18-10 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 33' Try — Billy Burns (Sharks) — 22-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 42' Try — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) — 24-14 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 50' Try — Teig Wilton (Sharks) — 28-16 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 63' Try — Siosifa Talakai (Sharks) — 34-16 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 76' Penalty Try — Erin Clark (Warriors) — 36-20 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.57 (edge -0.9%) — model probability 59.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 4 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Sharks are the call at 60%, but Warriors stay live at 40%. Form leans Warriors' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Sharks.

Sharks own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including Backline Quality, Halves Control and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Sharks by 4.0, with the two sides combining for about 47. Lean Sharks, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Sharks have leaked 124 in their last four.

On the ladder it's Sharks 9th against Warriors 2nd.

The market has Sharks favourites, Sharks $1.57 and Warriors $2.41, with the line at Sharks -4.5 and the total at 47.5.

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski has the whistle.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sharks 5 · Warriors 5 |
| Last meeting | Sharks 10-8 |
| Sharks last 4 | LLWL · 74 for, 124 against |
| Sharks at home | 9-4 this season |
| Warriors last 4 | WWLL · 103 for, 100 against |
| Warriors away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Sharks 9th · Warriors 2nd |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Sharks $1.57 · Warriors $2.41 |
| Line | Sharks -4.5 · total 47.5 |
| Referee | Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sharks

**Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski** — 72 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 7W–5L | 58% |
| Warriors | 5W–5L | 50% |

Avg total: 41.1 pts · Home win %: 44% · Home bias: Leans away

Sharks hold a 8-point edge: 7W–5L (58%) vs Warriors's 5W–5L (50%). Away teams perform well, home sides win just 44%, below ~52% league avg.

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski averages 13.3 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7 against away. Warriors get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski vs Sharks's +0.1. 71% of his 38 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sharks | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 22.8pts | Avg Score | 28.4pts |
| 23.6pts | Avg Conceded | 18.4pts |
| -0.8pts | Avg Margin | 10.0pts |
| 1574.6m | Run Metres | 1649.2m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 356.6 | Tackles | 331.2 |
| 10.0 | Errors | 11.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | PF L · R1 W · R2 L · R3 L · R4 W | 22.8 |
| Warriors | FW1 L · R1 W · R2 W · R3 W · R4 L | 28.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warriors lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R15 | Warriors | 8 – 10 | Sharks |
| 2025 | R14 | Sharks | 10 – 40 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R26 | Sharks | 28 – 30 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R1 | Warriors | 12 – 16 | Sharks |
| 2023 | R20 | Warriors | 44 – 12 | Sharks |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sharks' best path is the middle: NRL's 5th-ranked middle attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 7th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Trindall, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (4 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 3rd there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Nicoll-Klokstad, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sharks | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.25/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 13th (weak)) | 0.75/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 4/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1.25/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 9th) | 1/g (att 11th) · concedes 0.5/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sharks | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 2 | 6 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 3/g | 2.8/g |
| Run Metres | 202m/g | 169m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.5/g | 2.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.2% | 83.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sharks | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 11th |
| Defence rank | 12th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 12 | 8 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 708m/g | 603m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 21.8/g | 15.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.8/g | 2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.1% | 79.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sharks | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 2 | 8 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 435m/g | 604m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.3/g | 8.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.2% | 87.7% |

**Who scores on Warriors** — Centres 0.85/g (lg 0.71) +20% · Fullbacks 0.51/g (lg 0.43) +19% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.13) +0%
**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.09) +56% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.13) +8% · Centres 0.72/g (lg 0.71) +1%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Ocean Protect Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 4/11g | 1/2g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 21% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' 17' |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | 2 in 4g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·0·2·1·1·0·0) | 7/12g | 1/2g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.74 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 2/2g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 0/2g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' |
| 5 | Samuel Stonestreet | WG | 2 in 4g | 8/10g (2·2·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/2g | 1/2g | 50% | — | — |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 3 in 4g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 3/2g | 32% | — | — |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 2/2g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Toby Rudolf | PR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Billy Burns | 2R | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 20% | — | 🏉 34' |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/9g | 0/1g | 20% | — | 🏉 50' |
| 13 | Jesse Colquhoun | LK | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 9% | — | — |
| 14 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/2g | 10% | — | 🏉 64' |
| 15 | Thomas Hazelton | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Oregon Kaufusi | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taine Tuaupiki | FB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·2·0·0) | 13/18g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 24% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' 28' 42' |
| 3 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | CE | 3 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 4/10g | 0/0g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 18% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Adam Pompey | CE | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·2·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/9g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | WG | 0 in 4g | 4/10g (1·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 33% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Luke Metcalf | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| 7 | Tanah Boyd | HB | 3 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/17g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Jackson Ford | PR | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Leka Halasima | 2R | 4 in 4g | 7/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·1·2·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 47% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Jacob Laban | 2R | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 4% | — | 🏉 76' |
| 14 | Sam Healey | INT | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| 15 | Marata Niukore | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sharks 1539 · Warriors 1533 · ELO difference: 6 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sharks | Warriors | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1013 | 998 | Sharks +14 |
| Backs | 1062 | 1036 | Sharks +27 |
| Halves | 1045 | 1025 | Sharks +21 |
| Hooker | 1032 | 1016 | Sharks +16 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sharks |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sharks |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Sharks predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-05 06:17 UTC (latest tip update)