Win Probability
AI Game Review
Sea Eagles defied the model's 60% prediction for Dolphins, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.8 but the actual margin was 34 points. The game's 70 points came in 24 points higher than the predicted 46. The model went 8/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (312 career games). The combined score of 70 points was 27 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Despite Grant Atkins's 55% career home-team win rate, the away side Sea Eagles prevailed. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dolphins
60%
Sea Eagles
40%
AI Match Overview
Dolphins hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Sea Eagles are far from out of this at 40%. Sea Eagles are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Dolphins counter with Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency which tips the scales. Recent form favours Dolphins with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sea Eagles. The margin model predicts Dolphins by 6.8 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dolphins to Win @1.35
Lost ✗
Edge
-10.4%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles +10.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Dolphins 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dolphins | R2025-R27W R2026-R1L R2026-R2W R2026-R3W R2026-R4L older → newer | 32.0 |
Sea Eagles | R2025-R26W R2025-R27W R2026-R1L R2026-R2L R2026-R4L | 25.4 |
Avg Conceded
22.8
Dolphins
29.6
Sea Eagles
Avg Margin
9.2
Dolphins
-4.2
Sea Eagles
Run Metres
1891
Dolphins
1673
Sea Eagles
Line Breaks
6.0
Dolphins
5.0
Sea Eagles
Referee Indicator
BalancedGrant Atkins
312 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins, Dolphins 5W–5L (50%) and Sea Eagles 19W–17L (53%). Home teams win 55% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.9 pts
Home Win %
55%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away. Dolphins get a +0.0 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Sea Eagles's -0.6.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Sea Eagles hold the ELO advantage (1459 vs 1447), but the market favours Dolphins (@1.35).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Dolphins predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: +6.8
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.