Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Dolphins
60%
Sea Eagles
40%
AI Match Overview
Dolphins hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Sea Eagles are far from out of this at 40%. Sea Eagles are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality — but Dolphins counter with Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency which tips the scales. Recent form favours Dolphins with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sea Eagles. The margin model predicts Dolphins by 6.8 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dolphins to Win @1.35
Lost ✗
Edge
-10.4%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles +10.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Dolphins 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dolphins | WWWLL | 32.0 |
Sea Eagles | WWLLL | 25.4 |
Avg Conceded
22.8
Dolphins
29.6
Sea Eagles
Avg Margin
9.2
Dolphins
-4.2
Sea Eagles
Run Metres
1831
Dolphins
1732
Sea Eagles
Line Breaks
9.5
Dolphins
5.7
Sea Eagles
Each team's win rate when Grant Atkins refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Grant Atkins officiates — Dolphins 5W–5L (50%) and Sea Eagles 19W–17L (53%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 42.8 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 55% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Dolphins an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
42.8 pts
Home Win %
55%
Home Bias
Leans home
ELO–Market Disagreement
Sea Eagles hold the ELO advantage (1459 vs 1447), but the market favours Dolphins (@1.35).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Dolphins predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: +6.8
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.