# Dolphins v Sea Eagles — NRL Round 5 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dolphins 18 – 52 Sea Eagles

_Sea Eagles put Dolphins to the sword._

Half time: 0 – 28 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dolphins 60% / Sea Eagles 40% · Kayo Stadium, Redcliffe · Thu, 02 Apr, 08:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Dolphins: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (70' Tipped ⚡), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (73' Tipped ⚡), Herbie Farnworth (75' Tipped ⚡) · Sea Eagles: Tom Trbojevic (14' 1st Tipped 🎯), Lehi Hopoate (17' Tipped ⚡), Lehi Hopoate (25' Tipped ⚡), Reuben Garrick (33'), Luke Brooks (37'), Haumole Olakau'atu (58' Tipped ⚡), Tolutau Koula (62' Tipped ⚡), Ben Trbojevic (65'), Corey Waddell (68')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 60% | Lost |
| Sea Eagles | 40% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 6.8 predicted → 34 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Redcliffe Dolphins vs Manly Sea Eagles Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 5 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Apr 2026, 12:36 pm · Last updated: 3 Apr 2026, 01:26 pm_

Dolphins 18–52 Sea Eagles in NRL Round 5 at Kayo Stadium, Redcliffe. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sea Eagles beat Dolphins 52-18 at Kayo Stadium, and even that scoreline flatters the home side. Dolphins didn't get on the board until the 70th minute, by which point they were down 0-50. Everything after that was just Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Herbie Farnworth putting some respectability on the numbers in garbage time.

The half-time score tells the real story: 28-0. Tom Trbojevic opened it in the 14th minute, Lehi Hopoate scored twice inside the next eleven, and by the 36th minute Luke Brooks had made it 26-0 before the Dolphins had managed a single point. A Morgan Knowles sin bin in the 19th minute didn't help, but the Sea Eagles were already cooking before that card was shown.

The completion rate says most of it. Sea Eagles finished at 89%, Dolphins at 64%, and with 14 errors to 5, the home side simply couldn't hold the ball long enough to apply pressure. Nine penalties conceded against three didn't help either. Sea Eagles ran for 2,081 metres to 1,412, backed it up with 676 post-contact metres to 376, and broke the line eight times to four. That's not a team hanging on, that's a team that had the ball and knew what to do with it.

Defensively, Dolphins missed 37 tackles to the Sea Eagles' 24, which explains how a side conceding 29.6 points a game across their last five suddenly looked unstoppable. Curiously, the Dolphins' effective tackle percentage was actually the better of the two sides, 87.2% to 80.9%. Doesn't mean much when you're missing 13 more tackles than the opposition and the ones that count are the ones that go missing in the right ten metres.

Individually, the Sea Eagles spread the scoring around: Hopoate with two, Trbojevic, Garrick, Brooks, Olakau'atu, Koula, Ben Trbojevic and Corey Waddell all crossing. Eight different try scorers is the kind of number that tells you a game got away from a defence completely, rather than one player carving it up. For Dolphins, Tabuai-Fidow's double either side of the 70-minute mark was the only real spark, with Farnworth adding the third right at the death.

This one also blew up the model's pre-match numbers. Alphr had Dolphins favourites at 60%, with the ratings gap (1447 to 1459) suggesting a tight one, Dolphins by 6.8 and a total near 46. Instead the margin ran out at 34 points the other way and the total landed at 70, twenty-four points over the projection. The Sea Eagles' halves and hooker ratings, both comfortably ahead of the Dolphins' on paper, showed up exactly where you'd expect, in the kicking game (457 metres to 316) and in a performance from Tom Trbojevic and company nobody had flagged given Manly's woeful recent form of two wins from five.

Dolphins came in with the better average margin over their last five, plus 9.2 to minus 4.2, and were expected to win this one comfortably. Instead they were run off their own park early and never recovered. The model went 8 from 17 across the round on results like this, which is the kind of night the tracking exists for.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 0 | 18 | 18 |
| Sea Eagles | 28 | 24 | 52 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dolphins | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 38% | Possession | **62%** |
| 64% | Completion rate | **89%** |
| 1,412 | Run metres | **2,081** |
| 376 | Post-contact metres | **676** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **8** |
| 24 | Tackle breaks | **37** |
| **14** | Offloads | 13 |
| **87.2%** | Effective tackle % | 80.9% |
| 37 | Missed tackles | **24** |
| 14 | Errors | **5** |
| 9 | Penalties conceded | **3** |
| 316 | Kick metres | **457** |

**Model Report Card**

Sea Eagles defied the model's 60% prediction for Dolphins, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.8 but the actual margin was 34 points. The game's 70 points came in 24 points higher than the predicted 46. The model went 8/17 on this match. Sea Eagles covered the 10.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (312 career games). The combined score of 70 points was 27 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Despite Grant Atkins's 55% career home-team win rate, the away side Sea Eagles prevailed. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 14' Try — Tom Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 17' Try — Lehi Hopoate (Sea Eagles) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 19' Sin Bin — Morgan Knowles (Dolphins) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 25' Try — Lehi Hopoate (Sea Eagles) — 0-14 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 33' Try — Reuben Garrick (Sea Eagles) — 0-20 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 36' Try — Luke Brooks (Sea Eagles) — 0-26 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 58' Try — Haumole Olakau'atu (Sea Eagles) — 0-34 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 62' Try — Tolutau Koula (Sea Eagles) — 0-40 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 65' Try — Ben Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 0-44 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 67' Try — Corey Waddell (Sea Eagles) — 0-50 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 70' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 4-52 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 72' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 10-52 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 74' Try — Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — 16-52 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.35 (edge -10.4%) — model probability 59.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles +10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 7 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Dolphins are the call at 60%, but Sea Eagles stay live at 40%. Form leans Dolphins' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Sea Eagles.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Dolphins by 6.8, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Dolphins, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Sea Eagles have won 3 of the last 5 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 22-0 in 2026 Round 24.

Dolphins have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Dolphins 8th against Sea Eagles 14th.

The market has Dolphins favourites, Dolphins $1.35 and Sea Eagles $3.19, with the line at Dolphins -10.5 and the total at 50.5.

Grant Atkins has the whistle.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 5) | Dolphins 2 · Sea Eagles 3 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 22-0 |
| Dolphins last 4 | WWWL · 96 for, 84 against |
| Dolphins at home | 8-5 this season |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWL · 118 for, 87 against |
| Sea Eagles away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Dolphins 8th · Sea Eagles 14th |
| Finals odds | Dolphins 100% · Sea Eagles 0% |
| Market | Dolphins $1.35 · Sea Eagles $3.19 |
| Line | Dolphins -10.5 · total 50.5 |
| Referee | Grant Atkins |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Grant Atkins** — 312 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 5W–5L | 50% |
| Sea Eagles | 19W–17L | 53% |

Avg total: 42.9 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins, Dolphins 5W–5L (50%) and Sea Eagles 19W–17L (53%). Home teams win 55% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Sea Eagles get a +-0.1 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Dolphins's -0.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dolphins | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 32.0pts | Avg Score | 25.4pts |
| 22.8pts | Avg Conceded | 29.6pts |
| 9.2pts | Avg Margin | -4.2pts |
| 1891.2m | Run Metres | 1673.2m |
| 6.0 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 347.0 | Tackles | 342.2 |
| 12.2 | Errors | 12.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | R27 W · R1 L · R2 W · R3 W · R4 L | 32.0 |
| Sea Eagles | R26 W · R27 W · R1 L · R2 L · R4 L | 25.4 |

### H2H History (Last 4) — Tied 2-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Sea Eagles | 0 – 22 | Dolphins |
| 2025 | R25 | Sea Eagles | 58 – 30 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R10 | Dolphins | 30 – 24 | Sea Eagles |
| 2023 | R15 | Sea Eagles | 58 – 18 | Dolphins |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dolphins' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.5 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 17th there (3 conceded/game). Key man: Averillo, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Sea Eagles' best path is the middle: NRL's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 10th there (1.75 conceded/game). Key man: Trbojevic, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dolphins | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.75/g (att 11th) · concedes 0.5/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.67/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.75/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.75/g (def 10th) | 2/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 2.5/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.75/g (def 13th (weak)) | 0.67/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 3/g (def 17th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dolphins | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 2 | 2 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 179m/g | 158m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.8/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.7% | 81.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dolphins | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 11 | 6 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 889m/g | 801m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.3/g | 16/g |
| Line Breaks | 3/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.4% | 74.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dolphins | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 0 | 2 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 567m/g | 435m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.5/g | 8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.4% | 89% |

**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.13) +15% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.17) +12% · Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.21) +10%
**Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.09) +33% · Halfbacks 0.27/g (lg 0.21) +29% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.17) +12%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Kayo Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 3 in 4g | 8/10g (0·0·1·0·1·3·1·1·1·0) | 4/6g | 9/5g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.52 AI 74% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 70' 73' |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 3 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 5/8g | 4/8g | 42% | — | — |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | CE | 5 in 4g | 8/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·1·1·2·1) | 2/9g | 6/7g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.96 AI 55% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/5g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 53% ✓ Scored | 🏉 75' |
| 5 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/4g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 4/9g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Tom Gilbert | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Max Plath | HK | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 19% | — | — |
| 10 | Felise Kaufusi | PR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Connelly Lemuelu | 2R | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/5g | 1/5g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Bradley Schneider | RES | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Thomas Flegler | INT | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Ray Stone | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Francis Molo | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Trbojevic | FB | 4 in 3g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·0·1·1·2) | 5/3g | 3/1g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.95 AI 66% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 14' |
| 2 | Clayton Faulalo | WG | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 21% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 24% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 2 in 3g | 8/10g (1·0·1·1·1·1·1·1·0·1) | 4/3g | 0/0g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 62' |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/2g | 0/1g | 28% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | WG | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·2·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 68% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' 25' |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/2g | 18% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Taniela Paseka | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Brandon Wakeham | HK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Kobe Hetherington | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 75% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 58' |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 65' |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Simpkin | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Corey Waddell | INT | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 14% | — | 🏉 68' |
| 16 | Ethan Bullemor | INT | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Simione Laiafi | RES | 0 in 1g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Sea Eagles hold the ELO advantage (1459 vs 1447), but the market favours Dolphins (@1.35). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dolphins 1447 · Sea Eagles 1459 · ELO difference: 12 in favour of Sea Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dolphins | Sea Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 956 | 962 | Sea Eagles +6 |
| Backs | 953 | 958 | Sea Eagles +5 |
| Halves | 945 | 962 | Sea Eagles +17 |
| Hooker | 959 | 997 | Sea Eagles +38 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-03 02:26 UTC (latest tip update)