AI Win Probability
Eels
53%
Wests Tigers
47%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Eels a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Eels ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Recent form favours Eels with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Wests Tigers.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Eels to Win @1.83
Edge
+0.4%
Line / Spread
Wests Tigers +1.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Wests Tigers 1-12 @2.55
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Eels | WWWWL | 33.2 |
Wests Tigers | WLLLL | 25.2 |
Avg Conceded
27.2
Eels
26.0
Wests Tigers
Avg Margin
6.0
Eels
-0.8
Wests Tigers
Run Metres
1650
Eels
1529
Wests Tigers
Line Breaks
6.0
Eels
3.7
Wests Tigers
Each team's win rate when Peter Gough refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Peter Gough officiates — Eels 10W–17L (37%) and Wests Tigers 8W–16L (33%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 44.2 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Eels predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: -0.9
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.