# Eels v Wests Tigers — NRL Round 5 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Eels 20 – 22 Wests Tigers

_Wests Tigers hold off a fast-finishing Eels._

Half time: 10 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Eels 53% / Wests Tigers 47% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Mon, 06 Apr, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Eels: Bailey Simonsson (11' 1st Tipped ⚡), Junior Paulo (15'), Apa Twidle (60'), Apa Twidle (62') · Wests Tigers: Adam Doueihi (29'), Jahream Bula (35' Tipped ⚡), Faaletino Tavana (43')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 53% | Lost |
| Wests Tigers | 47% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.9 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Eels vs Wests Tigers Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 5, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Apr 2026, 12:36 pm · Last updated: 6 Apr 2026, 06:38 pm_

Eels 20–22 Wests Tigers in NRL Round 5 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two very different ideas about how to win a footy game were on show at CommBank Stadium. One team had the ball and the patience to use it properly, the other had the ambition to strike fast. On this occasion, patience got there by two points. Wests Tigers beat Eels 22-20, doing it with the ball in hand more often (54% possession to 46%), doing more with it, and being harder to stop once they had it.

The Eels started all ambition. Bailey Simonsson crossed in the 10th minute and Junior Paulo followed four minutes later, and it was 8-0 with CommBank Stadium rocking. But Wests Tigers didn't need to panic. Adam Doueihi got them on the board in the 28th minute, then Jahream Bula levelled it at 10-10 in the 34th. Right before the break Faaletino Tavana crossed again, and Wests Tigers went into the sheds up 16-10 after trailing by eight not long before.

The second half turned into an arm-wrestle. Wests Tigers led 16-10 for a long stretch before Luke Laulilii was sin-binned in the 59th minute. The Eels made the one-man advantage count immediately: Apa Twidle scored right after the sin bin to make it 14-18, then again two minutes later to level things at 18-18. From there it stayed tight, with Wests Tigers eventually getting home 22-20.

The numbers explain why Wests Tigers were the tougher out. They ran for 1,938 metres to the Eels' 1,550, and made 633 post-contact metres to just 410. That's the difference between a side that gets tackled and a side that keeps dragging defenders. It showed up in tackle breaks too: Wests Tigers busted 47 to the Eels' 21, and offloaded 17 times compared to 10. When you're breaking that many tackles and getting the ball away that often, you're going to create second-phase opportunities all day.

The Eels actually had the sharper finishing edge, with 6 line breaks to Wests Tigers' 3. But it didn't translate into enough points, because Wests Tigers controlled the ball better in general play. They completed at 83% to the Eels' 79%, and made only 11 errors to 12. In a tight arm-wrestle like this one, that kind of discipline with the footy matters more than flash.

Defensively, Wests Tigers were the far more accurate side. They missed just 21 tackles against the Eels' 47, and their effective tackle percentage of 89.2% dwarfed the Eels' 82.8%. Parramatta's defence simply leaked too often, and Wests Tigers had the ball skills to exploit it when it mattered.

Alphr's model had this one close to right, tipping Wests Tigers by 0.9 points against an actual margin of 2, and picking a total of 45 against the real 42. The model backed Eels at 53% to win, so Wests Tigers' win was a mild upset by the numbers, if not by the run of play. The under 49.5 total call landed, as did the 1-12 margin band pick and the 1.5-point line covered by Wests Tigers. All up, the model finished 5/16 on the match, a reminder that even a tidy prediction on the margin and total doesn't mean every market call falls the same way.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eels | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| Wests Tigers | 12 | 10 | 22 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Eels | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 46% | Possession | **54%** |
| 79% | Completion rate | **83%** |
| 1,550 | Run metres | **1,938** |
| 410 | Post-contact metres | **633** |
| **6** | Line breaks | 3 |
| 21 | Tackle breaks | **47** |
| 10 | Offloads | **17** |
| 82.8% | Effective tackle % | **89.2%** |
| 47 | Missed tackles | **21** |
| 12 | Errors | **11** |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **4** |
| **760** | Kick metres | 728 |

**Model Report Card**

Wests Tigers defied the model's 53% prediction for Eels, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting Wests Tigers by 0.9 vs the actual margin of 2 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 42, within 3 points. The model went 5/16 on this match. Wests Tigers covered the 1.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 49.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (177 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Peter Gough's career average of 44. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 10' Try — Bailey Simonsson (Eels) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 14' Try — Junior Paulo (Eels) — 8-0 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 28' Try — Adam Doueihi (Wests Tigers) — 10-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 34' Try — Jahream Bula (Wests Tigers) — 10-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 42' Try — Faaletino Tavana (Wests Tigers) — 10-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 59' Sin Bin — Luke Laulilii (Wests Tigers) — 10-16 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 59' Try — Apa Twidle (Eels) — 14-18 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 61' Try — Apa Twidle (Eels) — 18-18 · win-prob swing +7 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Eels to win @ $1.83 (edge +0.4%) — model probability 52.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wests Tigers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wests Tigers by 1 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Eels and Wests Tigers. The model can't split them, landing on Eels at 53%. Form leans Eels' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Wests Tigers.

Eels own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Halves Control, Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Eels have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Eels took the most recent meeting 16-13 in 2026 Round 22.

Wests Tigers are 3-9 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Eels 13th against Wests Tigers 3rd.

The market has Eels favourites, Eels $1.83 and Wests Tigers $2.01, with the line at Eels -1.5 and the total at 49.5.

Peter Gough has the whistle.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Eels 6 · Wests Tigers 4 |
| Last meeting | Eels 16-13 |
| Eels last 4 | WLWL · 108 for, 106 against |
| Eels at home | 6-6 this season |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | LWLL · 67 for, 110 against |
| Wests Tigers away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Eels 13th · Wests Tigers 3rd |
| Finals odds | Eels 0% · Wests Tigers 0% |
| Market | Eels $1.83 · Wests Tigers $2.01 |
| Line | Eels -1.5 · total 49.5 |
| Referee | Peter Gough |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Peter Gough** — 177 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 10W–17L | 37% |
| Wests Tigers | 8W–16L | 33% |

Avg total: 44.2 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Peter Gough, Eels 10W–17L (37%) and Wests Tigers 8W–16L (33%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Wests Tigers get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Eels's -0.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Eels | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 32.0pts | Avg Score | 26.0pts |
| 32.4pts | Avg Conceded | 22.0pts |
| -0.4pts | Avg Margin | 4.0pts |
| 1628.6m | Run Metres | 1659.6m |
| 5.2 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 323.2 | Tackles | 323.2 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | R27 W · R1 L · R2 W · R3 W · R4 L | 32.0 |
| Wests Tigers | R26 L · R27 L · R2 W · R3 L · R4 W | 26.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Eels lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Wests Tigers | 13 – 16 | Eels |
| 2025 | R7 | Wests Tigers | 22 – 38 | Eels |
| 2025 | R2 | Eels | 6 – 32 | Wests Tigers |
| 2024 | R27 | Wests Tigers | 26 – 60 | Eels |
| 2024 | R4 | Eels | 16 – 17 | Wests Tigers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Eels' best path is the left edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.75 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 4th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Russell, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Wests Tigers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 16th there (1.75 conceded/game). Key man: Laulilii, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Eels | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.75/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.75/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.67/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 2/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 2.5/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.67/g (att 9th) · concedes 1/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.5/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.67/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Eels | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 3 | 3 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 2.7/g |
| Run Metres | 93m/g | 257m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 1.3/g | 9.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.2% | 84% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Eels | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 14 | 6 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 687m/g | 697m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.3/g | 17/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.3/g | 2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.5% | 76.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Eels | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 8 | 5 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 463m/g | 528m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.3/g | 12.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.8% | 92.2% |

**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Fullbacks 0.63/g (lg 0.43) +47% · Props 0.22/g (lg 0.16) +38% · Five-Eighths 0.37/g (lg 0.27) +37%
**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.17/g (lg 0.09) +89% · Centres 1.06/g (lg 0.71) +49% · Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.13) +46%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joash Papalii | FB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/14g | 3% | — | — |
| 2 | Bailey Simonsson | WG | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/8g | 9/28g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.85 AI 26% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' |
| 3 | Brian Kelly | CE | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·2·0·0) | 4/11g | 2/4g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Sean Russell | CE | 3 in 4g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 1/5g | 15/33g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 36% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 2 in 3g | 12/10g (1·1·2·0·2·1·3·0·1·1) | 7/10g | 18/22g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.51 AI 80% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 29% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jonah Pezet | 5/8 | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 19% | — | — |
| 7 | Mitchell Moses | HB | 0 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·3·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 20/63g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Williams | PR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/19g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Ryley Smith | HK | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/14g | 11% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 10/85g | 8% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 11 | Kelma Tuilagi | 2R | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/21g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 3/12g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Dylan Walker | LK | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/16g | 3/19g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 3/10g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Tuivaiti | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Charlie Guymer | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/11g | 13% | — | — |
| 17 | Luca Moretti | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/20g | 4% | — | — |

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 3/7g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.18 AI 53% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' |
| 2 | Faaletino Tavana | WG | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 3 | Sunia Turuva | CE | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 7/5g | 6/8g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 23% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Heamasi Makasini | CE | 1 in 3g | 2/4g (1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Luke Laulilii | WG | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/2g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.97 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Jock Madden | 5/8 | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Doueihi | HB | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/11g | 3/20g | 28% | — | 🏉 29' |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/21g | 1/13g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/9g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/5g | 1/6g | 26% | — | — |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 3 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/20g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Latu Fainu | INT | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/3g | 19% | — | — |
| 15 | Sione Fainu | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Royce Hunt | INT | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Alex Seyfarth | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 3/17g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Eels 1475 · Wests Tigers 1467 · ELO difference: 8 in favour of Eels

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Eels | Wests Tigers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 984 | 970 | Eels +13 |
| Backs | 984 | 976 | Eels +9 |
| Halves | 958 | 940 | Eels +19 |
| Hooker | 993 | 972 | Eels +20 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Eels |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Eels |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Eels |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Eels |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Eels |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Eels predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-06 08:38 UTC (latest tip update)