Win Probability
AI Game Review
Wests Tigers defied the model's 53% prediction for Eels, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting Wests Tigers by 0.9 vs the actual margin of 2 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 42, within 3 points. The model went 5/16 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 49.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (177 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Peter Gough's career average of 44. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Eels
53%
Wests Tigers
47%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Eels a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Eels ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Recent form favours Eels with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Wests Tigers.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Eels to Win @1.83
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.4%
Line / Spread
Wests Tigers +1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Wests Tigers 1-12 @2.55
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Eels | R2025-R27W R2026-R1L R2026-R2W R2026-R3W R2026-R4L older → newer | 32.0 |
Wests Tigers | R2025-R26L R2025-R27L R2026-R2W R2026-R3L R2026-R4W | 26.0 |
Avg Conceded
32.4
Eels
22.0
Wests Tigers
Avg Margin
-0.4
Eels
4.0
Wests Tigers
Run Metres
1629
Eels
1660
Wests Tigers
Line Breaks
5.2
Eels
4.6
Wests Tigers
Referee Indicator
BalancedPeter Gough
177 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Peter Gough, Eels 10W–17L (37%) and Wests Tigers 8W–16L (33%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away. Wests Tigers get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Eels's -0.3.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Eels predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: -0.9
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.