# Rabbitohs v Bulldogs — NRL Round 5 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Rabbitohs 32 – 24 Bulldogs

_Rabbitohs fight back to hop past Bulldogs._

Half time: 12 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Rabbitohs 41% / Bulldogs 59% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 03 Apr, 04:05 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Rabbitohs: Alex Johnston (5' 1st Tipped 🎯), Latrell Mitchell (23' Tipped ⚡), Tallis Duncan (47'), Cameron Murray (56'), Latrell Mitchell (66' Tipped ⚡) · Bulldogs: Marcelo Montoya (20' Tipped ⚡), Lachlan Galvin (31'), Sitili Tupouniua (37'), Connor Tracey (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 59% | Lost |
| Rabbitohs | 41% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.3 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Canterbury Bulldogs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 5 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Apr 2026, 12:36 pm · Last updated: 3 Apr 2026, 05:58 pm_

Rabbitohs 32–24 Bulldogs in NRL Round 5 at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

South Sydney and Canterbury played two different games out there, and only one of them finished with the trophy. The Bulldogs ran for 1,573 metres to the Rabbitohs' 1,426 and racked up 33 tackle breaks to 26, all that go-forward built on 10 offloads to 7. Souths took the scenic route: 84% completions, just 10 errors, and 894 kicking metres to push Canterbury back into their own half. Both plans worked, for a while. Only one held up.

The Bulldogs' physicality had them 18-12 up at the break, and it wasn't a fluke. Marcelo Montoya, Lachlan Galvin and Sitili Tupouniua all crossed inside a 17-minute stretch either side of the half-hour, and each time Souths answered, Canterbury had the next word. Alex Johnston had put Souths ahead inside four minutes, Latrell Mitchell restored the lead at 22, but Tupouniua's try on 36 minutes put the Bulldogs back in front for good, at least for the first forty.

Then the picture flipped. Tallis Duncan crossed early in the second half to get Souths within two, Cameron Murray followed just past the hour to put them in front for the first time since the 22nd minute, and Latrell Mitchell's second, on 65 minutes, turned a scrap into a buffer. Connor Tracey's try with 12 minutes left was the Bulldogs' last word, and it wasn't enough. 32-24, Souths, and the last three tries of the match all wore cardinal and myrtle.

The discipline column tells you plenty about why the raw metres didn't cash out. Canterbury conceded 8 penalties to Souths' 2, and repeat sets are hard to build when you're handing back field position for nothing. Seventeen errors against Souths' 10 compounded it: all that hard running counts for less when the ball keeps hitting the deck.

Where Souths were genuinely troubled was in defence, 33 missed tackles to the Bulldogs' 26, and an effective tackle rate of 84.9% against Canterbury's 89.6%. That gap is exactly what let the Bulldogs build their first-half lead. It just wasn't enough to survive the alarm bells Souths' completion rate and penalty count were setting off in the other direction.

The formline pointed at Canterbury too. Their positional edges were there in black and white going in, forwards 973 to 933, halves 1,011 to 923, hooker 994 to 922, and Alphr's model had them favourites at 59%, tipping a narrow 1.3-point win off ratings of 1474 to 1459. For a half, the model looked switched on. Then Souths' completion rate and their control of the boot took over, and an 8-point Rabbitohs win came out the other side, the predicted margin close enough in size but pointed the wrong way. That call went down as one of 4 correct out of 17 on the round, a reminder that raw grunt on the stat sheet doesn't always outlast a side that holds onto the ball.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 12 | 20 | 32 |
| Bulldogs | 18 | 6 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| **84%** | Completion rate | 61% |
| 1,426 | Run metres | **1,573** |
| 391 | Post-contact metres | **413** |
| **6** | Line breaks | 3 |
| 26 | Tackle breaks | **33** |
| 7 | Offloads | **10** |
| 84.9% | Effective tackle % | **89.6%** |
| 33 | Missed tackles | **26** |
| **10** | Errors | 17 |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| **894** | Kick metres | 570 |

**Model Report Card**

Rabbitohs defied the model's 59% prediction for Bulldogs, a notable result. The predicted margin of 1.3 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. Rabbitohs trailed 12–18 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 32–24. The model went 4/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (99 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 10 points above Todd Smith's career average of 46. Rabbitohs bucked the trend, Bulldogs historically win 50% of games under Todd Smith, but couldn't convert that edge today.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 19' Try — Marcelo Montoya (Bulldogs) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 22' Try — Latrell Mitchell (Rabbitohs) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +14 pts
- 30' Try — Lachlan Galvin (Bulldogs) — 12-10 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 36' Try — Sitili Tupouniua (Bulldogs) — 12-18 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 46' Try — Tallis Duncan (Rabbitohs) — 16-18 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 56' Try — Cameron Murray (Rabbitohs) — 22-18 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 65' Try — Latrell Mitchell (Rabbitohs) — 28-18 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 78' Try — Connor Tracey (Bulldogs) — 32-22 · win-prob swing -2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $2.00 (edge +10.6%) — model probability 58.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Bulldogs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 1 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Bulldogs are the call at 59%, but Rabbitohs stay live at 41%. Form leans Rabbitohs' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Bulldogs.

Bulldogs own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Bulldogs by 1.3, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Bulldogs, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Rabbitohs have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Rabbitohs took the most recent meeting 22-6 in 2026 Round 24.

Rabbitohs have put up 128 points in four games. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Rabbitohs 5th against Bulldogs 6th.

The market has Rabbitohs favourites, Rabbitohs $1.85 and Bulldogs $2.00, with the line at Rabbitohs -1.5 and the total at 46.5.

Rabbitohs come in fresher, 12 days between games against 6.

Todd Smith has the whistle.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Rabbitohs 7 · Bulldogs 3 |
| Last meeting | Rabbitohs 22-6 |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | LWWL · 128 for, 107 against |
| Rabbitohs at home | 9-4 this season |
| Bulldogs last 4 | LWLL · 80 for, 94 against |
| Bulldogs away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Rabbitohs 5th · Bulldogs 6th |
| Finals odds | Rabbitohs 100% · Bulldogs 0% |
| Market | Rabbitohs $1.85 · Bulldogs $2.00 |
| Line | Rabbitohs -1.5 · total 46.5 |
| Rest gap | Rabbitohs 12d · Bulldogs 6d |
| Referee | Todd Smith |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Bulldogs

**Todd Smith** — 99 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 4W–7L | 36% |
| Bulldogs | 4W–4L | 50% |

Avg total: 45.8 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

Bulldogs hold a 14-point edge: 4W–4L (50%) vs Rabbitohs's 4W–7L (36%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 24.8pts | Avg Score | 17.8pts |
| 21.6pts | Avg Conceded | 24.0pts |
| 3.2pts | Avg Margin | -6.2pts |
| 1723.0m | Run Metres | 1849.2m |
| 4.4 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 309.0 | Tackles | 372.4 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | R25 W · R27 L · R1 W · R2 L · R3 W | 24.8 |
| Bulldogs | FW1 L · SF L · R1 W · R3 W · R4 L | 17.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Bulldogs lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Bulldogs | 6 – 22 | Rabbitohs |
| 2025 | R15 | Rabbitohs | 18 – 24 | Bulldogs |
| 2025 | R7 | Bulldogs | 32 – 0 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R4 | Rabbitohs | 20 – 16 | Bulldogs |
| 2023 | R19 | Rabbitohs | 32 – 36 | Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 11th there (1.67 conceded/game). Key man: Graham, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Bulldogs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 15th-ranked right edge attack (0.67 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 11th there (1.67 conceded/game). Key man: Preston, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Rabbitohs | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.67/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) | 0.67/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1/g (att 11th) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1/g (att 11th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 2/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 11th) | 0.67/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 11th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Rabbitohs | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 1 | 2 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 111m/g | 311m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2/g | 5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.2% | 83.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Rabbitohs | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 8 | 3 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 608m/g | 931m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.7/g | 11.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.3/g | 2.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.3% | 80.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Rabbitohs | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 2 | 2 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 703m/g | 472m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9/g | 6.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.9% | 87.6% |

**Who scores on Bulldogs** — 2nd Rows 0.5/g (lg 0.47) +6% · Wingers 1.24/g (lg 1.26) -2% · Hookers 0.09/g (lg 0.13) -31%
**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.51/g (lg 0.27) +89% · Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.13) +54% · Wingers 1.47/g (lg 1.26) +17%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jye Gray | FB | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 6/13g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 28% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 4 in 3g | 8/10g (1·0·0·2·0·1·0·1·2·1) | 17/19g | 89/90g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.61 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 14% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' |
| 3 | Latrell Mitchell | CE | 3 in 3g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 12/14g | 25/44g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 32% ✓ Scored | 🏉 23' 66' |
| 4 | Jack Wighton | CE | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/11g | 6/20g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Campbell Graham | WG | 3 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 5/11g | 25/54g | 30% | — | — |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/17g | 34/90g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamie Humphreys | HB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 7% | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 5/62g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Bronson Garlick | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 11/47g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | David Fifita | 2R | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 2/5g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 15% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Tallis Duncan | 2R | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 4/20g | 22% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 13 | Cameron Murray | LK | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 15/66g | 14% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 14 | Peter Mamouzelos | INT | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/18g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Lachlan Hubner | INT | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/7g | 11% | — | — |
| 16 | Sean Keppie | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/21g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Liam Le Blanc | RES | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/9g | 5% | — | — |

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/8g | 3/23g | 16% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 2 | Jacob Kiraz | WG | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 1/6g | 10/31g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.75 AI 72% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Enari Tuala | CE | 0 in 3g | 5/10g (1·0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 4/11g | 36% | — | — |
| 4 | Stephen Crichton | CE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 11/13g | 13/27g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Marcelo Montoya | WG | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/11g | 13/36g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.94 AI 41% ✓ Scored | 🏉 20' |
| 6 | Matt Burton | 5/8 | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 7/11g | 16/37g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Galvin | HB | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 4/10g | 20% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/38g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Bailey Hayward | HK | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/22g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Samuel Hughes | PR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/18g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | 2R | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 8/31g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (0·0·0·3·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/5g | 9/25g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 74% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/29g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 8/31g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Sitili Tupouniua | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 3/14g | 16% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 17 | Sean O'Sullivan | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Rabbitohs 1459 · Bulldogs 1474 · ELO difference: 15 in favour of Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Rabbitohs | Bulldogs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 933 | 973 | Bulldogs +40 |
| Backs | 936 | 1004 | Bulldogs +67 |
| Halves | 923 | 1011 | Bulldogs +88 |
| Hooker | 922 | 994 | Bulldogs +72 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Bulldogs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Bulldogs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Bulldogs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Bulldogs |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 0/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-03 06:58 UTC (latest tip update)