NRL | Round 5

Rabbitohs defied the model's 59% prediction for Bulldogs, a notable result. The predicted margin of 1.3 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. Rabbitohs trailed 12–18 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 32–24. The model went 4/17 on this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

🏁

AI Referee Insights

Todd Smith officiated this match (99 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 10 points above Todd Smith's career average of 46. Rabbitohs bucked the trend, Bulldogs historically win 50% of games under Todd Smith, but couldn't convert that edge today.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay

Beta

80', Rabbitohs firmly in control (99%)

RAB32

99%80'1%

24BUL

← Bulldogs momentumMomentum -13Rabbitohs momentum →

Next Try (within 10 min)

AI Model

71% none

19%

RAB 10%No try 71%BUL 19%

Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

59%BulldogsFavourite

Rabbitohs

41%

Bulldogs

59%

✨

AI Match Overview

Bulldogs hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Rabbitohs are far from out of this at 41%. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Recent form favours Rabbitohs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 1.3 points with a combined total of 44.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Bulldogs to Win @2.00

Lost ✗

Edge

+10.6%

✗

Line / Spread

Bulldogs +1.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Margin Band

Bulldogs 1-12 @2.55

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 46.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Rabbitohs	R2025-R25W R2025-R27L R2026-R1W R2026-R2L R2026-R3W older → newer	24.8
Bulldogs	R2025-R28L R2025-R29L R2026-R1W R2026-R3W R2026-R4L	17.8

Avg Conceded

21.6

Rabbitohs

24.0

Bulldogs

Avg Margin

3.2

Rabbitohs

-6.2

Bulldogs

Run Metres

1723

Rabbitohs

1849

Bulldogs

Line Breaks

4.4

Rabbitohs

4.6

Bulldogs

Referee Indicator

Favours Bulldogs

Todd Smith

99 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)

Rabbitohs

4W – 7L

36%

Bulldogs

4W – 4L

50%

Bulldogs hold a 14-point edge: 4W–4L (50%) vs Rabbitohs's 4W–7L (36%).

Avg Total

45.8 pts

Home Win %

55%

Home Bias

Leans home

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

10.7

Sin Bins / Gm

0.50

SB Away %

52%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams5.3

vs Away Teams5.4

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Rabbitohs

-0.8

Bulldogs

-1.4

Rabbitohs get a +-0.8 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Bulldogs's -1.4.

H2H History (Last 5)Bulldogs lead 3-2

Jun 2025SOU 18 - 24 CBY

Apr 2025SOU 0 - 32 CBY

Mar 2024SOU 20 - 16 CBY

Jul 2023SOU 32 - 36 CBY

Apr 2023SOU 50 - 16 CBY

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

SOU

1459Overall1474

CBY

ELO difference: -15 in favour of Bulldogs

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

933Forwards973

CBY +40

936Backs1004

CBY +67

923Halves1011

CBY +88

922Hooker994

CBY +72

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

SOU

Stat

CBY

3.0

Wins (Last 5)

2.0

24.8pts

Avg Score

17.8pts

21.6pts

Avg Conceded

24.0pts

3.2pts

Avg Margin

-6.2pts

1723.0m

Run Metres

1849.2m

4.4

Line Breaks

4.6

309.0

Tackles

372.4

10.8

Errors

9.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Bulldogs

Forward Pack12.0%

Bulldogs

Backline Quality10.0%

Bulldogs

Halves Control9.0%

Bulldogs

Recent Win Rate9.0%

Rabbitohs

Referee Tendency7.0%

Rabbitohs

Venue Advantage7.0%

Rabbitohs

Model Confidence

59%

Bulldogs predicted to win by 1 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: -1.3

0/4 match predictions correct4/13 scorer picks correct

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

Jacob PrestonBulldogs

forwardFair 1.362+ 38%

$2.50

+33.5% edge

Model

74%

Market

40%

Confidence

74%

Jacob KirazBulldogs

backFair 1.382+ 37%

$1.75

+15.3% edge

Model

72%

Market

57%

Confidence

72%

Matt BurtonBulldogs

halfFair 2.282+ 11%

$2.85

+8.8% edge

Model

44%

Market

35%

Confidence

44%

Marcelo MontoyaBulldogs

backFair 2.452+ 10%

$1.94

-10.7% edge

Model

41%

Market

52%

Confidence

41%

Alex JohnstonRabbitohs

backFair 1.952+ 16%

$1.61

-10.8% edge

Model

51%

Market

62%

Confidence

51%

Jye GrayRabbitohs

backFair 3.612+ 4%

$2.45

-13.1% edge

Model

28%

Market

41%

Confidence

28%

Latrell MitchellRabbitohs

backFair 3.082+ 6%

$2.03

-16.8% edge

Model

32%

Market

49%

Confidence

32%

David FifitaRabbitohs

forwardFair 6.682+ 1%

$3.05

-17.8% edge

Model

15%

Market

33%

Confidence

15%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Jacob PrestonBulldogs

forwardFair 5.022+ 38%

$13.00

+12.2% edge

Model

20%

Market

Confidence

20%

Jacob KirazBulldogs

backFair 5.172+ 37%

$9.00

+8.2% edge

Model

19%

Market

11%

Confidence

19%

Matt BurtonBulldogs

halfFair 11.552+ 11%

$14.00

+1.5% edge

Model

Market

Confidence

Alex JohnstonRabbitohs

backFair 7.372+ 16%

$8.00

+1.1% edge

Model

14%

Market

13%

Confidence

14%

Jye GrayRabbitohs

backFair 16.372+ 4%

$13.00

-1.6% edge

Model

Market

Confidence