Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Broncos to win at 63% probability. The predicted margin of 8.0 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. Broncos led 6–8 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. The model went 6/17 on this match. The under 52.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (360 career games). The 38-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Broncos's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Broncos have a 60% win rate under this referee. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Broncos prevailed. 61% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Titans
37%
Broncos
63%
AI Match Overview
Broncos hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Titans are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Broncos ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Broncos carry a 250-point ELO rating advantage (1573 vs 1323). Recent form favours Broncos with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Titans. The margin model predicts Broncos by 8.0 points with a combined total of 52.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Broncos to Win @1.22
Winner ✓
Edge
-14.9%
Line / Spread
Titans +12.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Broncos 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 52.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Titans | R2025-R27W R2026-R1L R2026-R2L R2026-R3L R2026-R4W older → newer | 19.6 |
Broncos | R2025-R30W R2026-R1L R2026-R2L R2026-R3W R2026-R4W | 18.4 |
Avg Conceded
28.0
Titans
21.2
Broncos
Avg Margin
-8.4
Titans
-2.8
Broncos
Run Metres
1504
Titans
1600
Broncos
Line Breaks
4.6
Titans
2.8
Broncos
Referee Indicator
Favours BroncosGerard Sutton
360 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Gerard Sutton officiates, Broncos have won 34 of 57 games (60%), significantly stronger than Titans's 8 from 22 (36%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
41.9 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Broncos get a +0.2 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Titans's -1.0. 61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Broncos predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 52 · Line: -8.0
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.