NRL | Round 5

alphr.com.au

GLD

Titans

BRI

Broncos

CBUS SUPER STADIUM, GOLD COAST • SATURDAY 4 APR, 7:35 PM

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

63%BroncosFavourite

Titans

37%

Broncos

63%

✨

AI Match Overview

Broncos hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Titans are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Broncos ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Broncos carry a 250-point ELO rating advantage (1573 vs 1323). Recent form favours Broncos with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Titans. The margin model predicts Broncos by 8.0 points with a combined total of 52.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Broncos to Win @1.22

Winner ✓

Edge

-14.9%

✓

Line / Spread

Titans +12.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Margin Band

Broncos 1-12 @2.55

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 52.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Titans	WLLLL	21.2
Broncos	WWWLL	19.0

Avg Conceded

32.4

Titans

24.4

Broncos

Avg Margin

-11.2

Titans

-5.4

Broncos

Run Metres

1514

Titans

1689

Broncos

Line Breaks

5.7

Titans

3.0

Broncos

Referee IndicatorAI

Favours Broncos

Gerard Sutton360 games since 2011

Each team's win rate when Gerard Sutton refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

GLD

36%8W 14L

BRI

60%34W 23L

When Gerard Sutton officiates, Broncos have won 34 of 57 games (60%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Titans's 8 from 22 (36%). That's a 24‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 41.9 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Titans an additional edge at home.

Avg Total

41.9 pts

Home Win %

56%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Titans lead 3-2

Jul 2025GLD 14 - 26 BRI

Jun 2025GLD 14 - 44 BRI

Aug 2024GLD 46 - 18 BRI

May 2024GLD 36 - 34 BRI

Jul 2023GLD 18 - 12 BRI

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

GLD

1323Overall1573

BRI

ELO difference: -250 in favour of Broncos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

785Forwards1102

BRI +317

812Backs1061

BRI +249

831Halves1084

BRI +253

855Hooker1101

BRI +247

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

GLD

Stat

BRI

1.0

Wins (Last 5)

3.0

21.2pts

Avg Score

19.0pts

32.4pts

Avg Conceded

24.4pts

-11.2pts

Avg Margin

-5.4pts

1514.3m

Run Metres

1689.0m

5.7

Line Breaks

3.0

300.0

Tackles

300.0

12.0

Errors

12.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Broncos

Forward Pack12.0%

Broncos

Backline Quality10.0%

Broncos

Halves Control9.0%

Broncos

Recent Win Rate9.0%

Broncos

Referee Tendency7.0%

Titans

Venue Advantage7.0%

Titans

Model Confidence

63%

Broncos predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 52 · Line: -8.0

2/4 match predictions correct4/13 scorer picks correct

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

Gehamat ShibasakiBroncos

backFair 1.392+ 36%

$2.02

+22.3% edge

Model

72%

Market

50%

Confidence

72%

Phillip SamiTitans

backFair 1.512+ 30%

$2.10

+18.7% edge

Model

66%

Market

48%

Confidence

66%

AJ BrimsonTitans

backFair 2.052+ 15%

$3.20

+17.5% edge

Model

49%

Market

31%

Confidence

49%

Kotoni StaggsBroncos

backFair 1.402+ 36%

$1.78

+15.2% edge

Model

71%

Market

56%

Confidence

71%

Reece WalshBroncos

backFair 1.292+ 44%

$1.51

+11.2% edge

Model

77%

Market

66%

Confidence

77%

Deine MarinerBroncos

backFair 1.582+ 26%

$1.59

+0.2% edge

Model

63%

Market

63%

Confidence

63%

Jayden CampbellTitans

halfFair 3.402+ 5%

$2.95

-4.5% edge

Model

29%

Market

34%

Confidence

29%

Jojo FifitaTitans

backFair 3.322+ 5%

$2.85

-5.0% edge

Model

30%

Market

35%

Confidence

30%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Phillip SamiTitans

backFair 4.672+ 30%

$13.00

+13.7% edge

Model

21%

Market

Confidence

21%

Sialetili FaeamaniTitans

backFair 4.992+ 27%

$13.00

+12.4% edge

Model

20%

Market

Confidence

20%

Gehamat ShibasakiBroncos

backFair 7.012+ 36%

$11.00

+5.2% edge

Model

14%

Market

Confidence

14%

Kotoni StaggsBroncos

backFair 7.092+ 36%

$9.50

+3.6% edge

Model

14%

Market

11%

Confidence

14%

Reece WalshBroncos

backFair 5.962+ 44%

$7.50

+3.5% edge

Model

17%

Market

13%

Confidence

17%