# Dragons v Storm — NRL Round 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dragons 14 – 8 Storm

_Dragons roar back to torch Storm._

Half time: 6 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dragons 48% / Storm 52% · Jubilee Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 29 Mar, 03:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Dragons: Valentine Holmes (33' 1st), Jacob Liddle (68') · Storm: Ryan Papenhuyzen (38' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 52% | Lost |
| Dragons | 48% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.2 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St George Illawarra Dragons vs Melbourne Storm Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 4 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Dragons 14–8 Storm in NRL Round 4 at Jubilee Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Storm did most of the things a winning side is supposed to do at Jubilee Stadium, and still went home with 8 points on the board. They had more of the footy, 51% to 49%, more metres, 1,692 to 1,590, and more line breaks, 4 to 2. They out-offloaded the Dragons badly, 11 to 4, and racked up more tackle breaks too, 27 to 22. Even in defence they were sharper, with an effective tackle rate of 92.6% against the Dragons' 89.5%. On paper, that's the sort of afternoon that wins games. It didn't.

Where it slipped is in the two columns that actually decide arm-wrestles like this one. Storm coughed the ball up 15 times to the Dragons' 13, and while they were the more disciplined side, conceding just 4 penalties to the Dragons' 9, they let the Dragons control where the game was played. Dragons kicked for 578 metres to Storm's 450, and that kind of territory adds up over 80 minutes, even when you're not the side making the line breaks.

The Dragons won it 14-8, and they did it from behind. Valentine Holmes opened the scoring for the Dragons in the 32nd minute, making it 4-2. Storm hit back through Ryan Papenhuyzen six minutes later, and the sides went to the sheds locked at 6-8 in Storm's favour. That's the story of the first half: Storm's extra ball control and line breaks translating into a lead, but not a big one.

The second half belonged to the Dragons. Jacob Liddle crossed in the 67th minute to put his side up 12-8, and from there the Dragons closed it out. The final margin was 6 points, built on field position rather than fireworks. Storm had the ball more, ran it further, and broke more tackles, but none of it mattered when the Dragons kept pinning them deep in their own half with the boot.

It's a result that runs against everything both sides had been doing lately. Storm arrived unbeaten in five, averaging 44.2 points a game and conceding just 16.4. The Dragons hadn't won in five, averaging 23.6 points scored against 32.2 conceded, an average margin of minus 8.6. On raw form and on the pre-match ratings, this wasn't close: Storm's forwards, backs, halves and hooker all rated higher across the board.

Alphr's model had Storm favourites by 4.2 points and picked them to win 52% of the time, with a combined total near 46. The Dragons ignored all of it. The actual margin was 6 points, not far off what the model expected, but the wrong team's name was on the winning side of the ledger, and the total of 22 points was well under the tip. Call it a game where the numbers pointed one way and the scoreboard went the other, and file it under 1 from 16 for the model this week.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 6 | 8 | 14 |
| Storm | 8 | 0 | 8 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dragons | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| 73% | Completion rate | **74%** |
| 1,590 | Run metres | **1,692** |
| 550 | Post-contact metres | **562** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **4** |
| 22 | Tackle breaks | **27** |
| 4 | Offloads | **11** |
| 89.5% | Effective tackle % | **92.6%** |
| 27 | Missed tackles | **22** |
| **13** | Errors | 15 |
| 9 | Penalties conceded | **4** |
| **578** | Kick metres | 450 |

**Model Report Card**

Dragons defied the model's 52% prediction for Storm, a notable result. The predicted margin of 4.2 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The game's 22 points came in 24 points lower than the predicted 46. Dragons trailed 6–8 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 14–8. The model went 1/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (189 career games). The combined score of 22 points was 22 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Dragons bucked the trend, Storm historically win 72% of games under Peter Gough, but couldn't convert that edge today. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 32' Try — Valentine Holmes (Dragons) — 4-2 · win-prob swing +18 pts
- 38' Try — Ryan Papenhuyzen (Storm) — 6-6 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 67' Try — Jacob Liddle (Dragons) — 12-8 · win-prob swing +7 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.42 (edge -21.6%) — model probability 52.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Storm +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge -21.6%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Storm by 4 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Dragons and Storm. The model can't split them, landing on Storm at 52%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Storm sit 310 ELO points clear, 1698 to 1388. Form leans Storm's way: 5 from their last 5, against 0 for Dragons.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Storm by 4.2, with the two sides combining for about 46. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Storm have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Storm took the most recent meeting 46-20 in 2026 Round 2.

Dragons have lost 4 straight; Dragons have leaked 134 in their last four. Storm have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Dragons 13th against Storm 1st.

Dragons come in fresher, 14 days between games against 8.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Dragons 4 · Storm 6 |
| Last meeting | Storm 46-20 |
| Dragons last 4 | LLLL · 54 for, 134 against |
| Dragons at home | 6-6 this season |
| Storm last 4 | LWWL · 84 for, 88 against |
| Storm away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Dragons 13th · Storm 1st |
| Finals odds | Dragons 0% · Storm 100% |
| Rest gap | Dragons 14d · Storm 8d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Peter Gough** — 189 career games since 2016.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 15W–13L | 54% |
| Storm | 13W–5L | 72% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Peter Gough officiates, Storm have won 13 of 18 games (72%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 15 from 28 (54%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Dragons get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Storm's -0.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dragons | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 23.6pts | Avg Score | 44.2pts |
| 32.2pts | Avg Conceded | 16.4pts |
| -8.6pts | Avg Margin | 27.8pts |
| 1667.0m | Run Metres | 1848.0m |
| 5.2 | Line Breaks | 7.8 |
| 358.6 | Tackles | 289.8 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 0W–5L | 23.6 |
| Storm | 5W–0L | 44.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Storm lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R2 | Dragons | 20 – 46 | Storm |
| 2024 | R22 | Storm | 16 – 18 | Dragons |
| 2023 | R25 | Dragons | 28 – 38 | Storm |
| 2022 | R9 | Storm | 42 – 6 | Dragons |
| 2021 | R10 | Storm | 44 – 18 | Dragons |

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Jubilee Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 0 in 2g | 8/10g (1·0·1·2·0·0·2·2·0·0) | 4/14g | 0/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Tyrell Sloan | WG | 2 in 1g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·2·0·2) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 42% | — | — |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 0 in 2g | 8/10g (0·1·0·3·1·1·0·2·0·0) | 6/15g | 0/1g | 44% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 5 | Christian Tuipulotu | WG | 4 in 2g | 12/10g (1·1·3·1·0·0·1·1·3·1) | 3/5g | 3/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.98 AI 66% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Kyle Flanagan | 5/8 | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Ilias | HB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Toby Couchman | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Emre Guler | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Luciano Leilua | 2R | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Jaydn Su'A | 2R | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (1·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/1g | 34% | — | — |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/7g | 1/1g | 20% | — | 🏉 68' |
| 15 | David Klemmer | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Hamish Stewart | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Dylan Egan | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Papenhuyzen | FB | 3 in 2g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·2·1) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.76 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' |
| 2 | Will Warbrick | WG | 1 in 1g | 9/10g (1·0·2·0·0·3·2·0·0·1) | 3/2g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.78 AI 81% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jack Howarth | CE | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | Grant Anderson | CE | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 29% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Coates | WG | 3 in 2g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.67 AI 71% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 52% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Tyran Wishart | HB | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Harry Grant | HK | 1 in 2g | 9/10g (2·0·0·1·1·3·0·1·1·0) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 77% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Shawn Blore | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Eliesa Katoa | 2R | 2 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 5/6g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 62% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Bronson Garlick | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec MacDonald | INT | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Tui Kamikamica | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dragons 1388 · Storm 1698 · ELO difference: 310 in favour of Storm

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dragons | Storm | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1119 (best 1325) | 1051 (best 1233) | Dragons +68 |
| Backs | 1143 (best 1214) | 1012 (best 1042) | Dragons +131 |
| Halves | 1124 (best 1124) | 1000 (best 1000) | Dragons +124 |
| Hooker | 1123 | 898 | Dragons +225 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Storm |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dragons |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dragons |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dragons |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Storm |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Storm |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — Storm predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r4-dragons-v-storm
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)