Win Probability
AI Game Review
Dragons defied the model's 52% prediction for Storm, a notable result. The predicted margin of 4.2 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The game's 22 points came in 24 points lower than the predicted 46. Dragons trailed 6–8 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 14–8. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The combined score of 22 points was 22 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Dragons bucked the trend, Storm historically win 72% of games under Peter Gough, but couldn't convert that edge today. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dragons
48%
Storm
52%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Storm a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Storm carry a 310-point ELO rating advantage (1698 vs 1388). Recent form favours Storm with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Storm by 4.2 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.42
Lost ✗
Edge
-21.6%
Line / Spread
Storm +7.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-21.6%
Total Points
Over 45.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-1.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dragons | L L L L L | 23.6 |
Storm | W W W W W | 44.2 |
Avg Conceded
32.2
Dragons
16.4
Storm
Avg Margin
-8.6
Dragons
27.8
Storm
Run Metres
1667
Dragons
1848
Storm
Line Breaks
5.2
Dragons
7.8
Storm
Referee Indicator
Favours StormPeter Gough
183 career games · since 2016
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Peter Gough officiates, Storm have won 13 of 18 games (72%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 14 from 27 (52%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away. Dragons get a +0.8 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Storm's +0.2.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
Storm predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: -4.2
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