# Cowboys v Raiders — NRL Round 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Cowboys 30 – 20 Raiders

_Cowboys round up Raiders._

Half time: 16 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Cowboys 53% / Raiders 47% · Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville · Sat, 29 Mar, 05:30 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Cowboys: Murray Taulagi (25' Tipped ⚡), Jake Clifford (31'), Jake Clifford (33'), Robert Derby (47'), Tom Dearden (75') · Raiders: Joseph Tapine (11' 1st), Xavier Savage (51' Tipped ⚡), Savelio Tamale (63')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 53% | Won |
| Raiders | 47% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.2 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Queensland Cowboys vs Canberra Raiders Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 4 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Cowboys 30–20 Raiders in NRL Round 4 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sixteen to eight at the break, and the Cowboys had done it the hard way. Joseph Tapine barged over in the 10th minute to give the Raiders first crack, but Townsville answered with Murray Taulagi finishing in the 25th, then Jake Clifford scoring twice inside three minutes either side of the half-hour mark. That second Clifford try, in the 33rd, was the one that mattered most. It flipped an 8-8 game into a 14-8 lead the Raiders never quite recovered from.

The second half started the same way the first one finished. Robert Derby crossed in the 47th to push it to 20-8, and for a while it looked like a rout. Canberra had other ideas. Xavier Savage got one back in the 51st, and after Coen Hess spent ten minutes in the bin from the 56th, Savelio Tamale capitalised to drag the margin back to six points at 22-16. Tom Dearden's try in the 75th was the one that finally shut the door, making it 28-18 before the final 30-20 scoreline settled.

The stat sheet tells you why it was that close. Canberra had 52% of the ball and completed at the same 76% rate as the Cowboys, but it was Townsville doing the damage when it counted: nine line breaks to four. That's the number that decided this game. You can control territory and completion all day, but nine line breaks against four is a side finding space the other couldn't.

The Raiders were the physically dominant side in a lot of the collision stats, and it showed. They ran for 585 post-contact metres to the Cowboys's 517, broke 44 tackles to 31, and controlled the kicking game with 522 metres to 369. On paper that reads like a Raiders performance. It wasn't, because the Cowboys made theirs count and the Raiders didn't turn dominance into scoreboard pressure until it was too late.

Defence was the other half of the story. Townsville missed 44 tackles to Canberra's 31, an effective tackle rate of 84.5% against 89.1%, and that gap is exactly why a 20-point half-time lead turned into a ten-point final margin. The Raiders' 14 errors to 11 cost them chances they couldn't afford to waste against a side finishing as clinically as the Cowboys did.

Pre-match, the ratings had Canberra's forward pack and hooker well ahead, 1160 to 1052 up front and 1200 to 888 at hooker, and their recent form backed that up: four wins from five, averaging 22.8 points a game to the Cowboys's 17.2. None of that showed up where it needed to. The Cowboys's halves edge, 1018 to 940 on paper, is closer to what actually played out, with Clifford and Dearden doing the finishing.

Alphr's model had the Cowboys at 53% and picked them by 1.2 points on a combined total of 42. The pick landed, the margin didn't, not by a distance, but backing the home side over the more fancied Raiders outfit was the right side of the ledger. Cowboys covered the line. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 16 | 14 | 30 |
| Raiders | 8 | 12 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Cowboys | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 48% | Possession | **52%** |
| 76% | Completion rate | 76% |
| **1,702** | Run metres | 1,571 |
| 517 | Post-contact metres | **585** |
| **9** | Line breaks | 4 |
| 31 | Tackle breaks | **44** |
| 10 | Offloads | **11** |
| 84.5% | Effective tackle % | **89.1%** |
| 44 | Missed tackles | **31** |
| **11** | Errors | 14 |
| **7** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| 369 | Kick metres | **522** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Cowboys to win at 53% probability. The predicted margin of 1.2 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. The model went 4/16 on this match. Cowboys covered the 1.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (313 career games). The combined score of 50 points was 7 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Cowboys's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 58% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 10' Try — Joseph Tapine (Raiders) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 25' Try — Murray Taulagi (Cowboys) — 4-8 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 30' Try — Jake Clifford (Cowboys) — 8-8 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 33' Try — Jake Clifford (Cowboys) — 14-8 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 47' Try — Robert Derby (Cowboys) — 20-8 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 51' Try — Xavier Savage (Raiders) — 22-12 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 56' Sin Bin — Coen Hess (Cowboys) — 22-12 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 63' Try — Savelio Tamale (Raiders) — 22-16 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 75' Try — Tom Dearden (Cowboys) — 28-18 · win-prob swing +4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Cowboys to win @ $1.89 (edge +0.1%) — model probability 53.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 1 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Cowboys and Raiders. The model can't split them, landing on Cowboys at 53%. The ratings say otherwise: Raiders sit 36 ELO points clear, 1482 to 1446, so the model is backing Cowboys against the ratings gap. Form leans Raiders' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Cowboys.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Cowboys by 1.2, with the two sides combining for about 42. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Cowboys have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Raiders took the most recent meeting 50-30 in 2026 Round 27.

Cowboys have put up 120 points in four games. Raiders have lost 3 straight; Raiders have leaked 133 in their last four. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Cowboys 3, Raiders 6.

On the ladder it's Cowboys 16th against Raiders 8th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Cowboys 7 · Raiders 3 |
| Last meeting | Raiders 50-30 |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWWL · 120 for, 89 against |
| Cowboys at home | 5-7 this season |
| Raiders last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 133 against |
| Raiders away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Cowboys 16th · Raiders 8th |
| Finals odds | Cowboys 0% · Raiders 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Adam Gee** — 313 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 22W–19L | 54% |
| Raiders | 22W–22L | 50% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Adam Gee, Cowboys 22W–19L (54%) and Raiders 22W–22L (50%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cowboys | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 17.2pts | Avg Score | 22.8pts |
| 29.2pts | Avg Conceded | 21.2pts |
| -12.0pts | Avg Margin | 1.6pts |
| 1706.8m | Run Metres | 1582.4m |
| 3.6 | Line Breaks | 4.4 |
| 362.8 | Tackles | 387.6 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 11.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 1W–4L | 17.2 |
| Raiders | 4W–1L | 22.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Cowboys lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | Cowboys | 30 – 50 | Raiders |
| 2026 | R13 | Raiders | 26 – 12 | Cowboys |
| 2024 | R24 | Cowboys | 42 – 4 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R15 | Raiders | 16 – 34 | Cowboys |
| 2023 | R1 | Cowboys | 19 – 18 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Cowboys' best path is the left edge: NRL's 15th-ranked left edge attack (0.33 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 17th there (3 conceded/game). Key man: Taulagi, 1 tries in that channel this season.
- Raiders' best path is the left edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 16th there (2.67 conceded/game). Key man: Kris, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Cowboys | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.33/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 2.67/g (def 16th (weak)) | 2/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 3/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 10th) | 1.33/g (att 8th) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.67/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.33/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Cowboys | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 2 | 1 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 153m/g | 162m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.7/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88% | 87.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Cowboys | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 8 | 8 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 651m/g | 643m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.7/g | 19.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.3/g | 3.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.8% | 74.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Cowboys | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 6 | 4 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 427m/g | 526m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5/g | 13.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.1% | 91.5% |

**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.27/g (lg 0.16) +69% · Centres 0.98/g (lg 0.67) +46% · Five-Eighths 0.33/g (lg 0.26) +27%
**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.28/g (lg 0.16) +75% · Locks 0.17/g (lg 0.11) +55% · Five-Eighths 0.32/g (lg 0.26) +23%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Queensland Country Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/6g | 17/57g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Robert Derby | WG | 0 in 1g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 3 | Jaxon Purdue | CE | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 2/7g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Viliami Vailea | CE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/13g | 20% | — | — |
| 5 | Murray Taulagi | WG | 1 in 3g | 8/10g (3·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 26/45g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.85 AI 53% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' |
| 6 | Tom Dearden | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 16/43g | 32% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 7 | Jake Clifford | HB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 4/19g | 14% | — | 🏉 31' 33' |
| 8 | Jordan McLean | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 3/55g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 17/57g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Jason Taumalolo | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/18g | 2/47g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | John Bateman | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Kai O'Donnell | 2R | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Reuben Cotter | LK | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/36g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam McIntyre | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/16g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Jeremiah Nanai | INT | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 21/33g | 34% | — | — |
| 16 | Griffin Neame | INT | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 1/38g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Coen Hess | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 6/42g | 8% | — | — |

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 1 in 3g | 1/4g (0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | 🏉 63' |
| 3 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 3 in 3g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 1/6g | 1/4g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 54% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 2 in 2g | 9/10g (1·1·0·1·0·2·1·1·2·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 75% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 51' |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Papalii | INT | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/19g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 1/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/4g | 2% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/8g | 0/5g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Matty Nicholson | 2R | 2 in 2g | 2/2g (2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.10 AI 54% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Corey Horsburgh | LK | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Simi Sasagi | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Trey Mooney | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Raiders hold the ELO advantage (1482 vs 1446), but the market favours Cowboys (@1.89). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Cowboys 1446 · Raiders 1482 · ELO difference: 36 in favour of Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Cowboys | Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1052 (best 1240) | 1160 (best 1276) | Raiders +108 |
| Backs | 910 (best 1086) | 917 (best 965) | Raiders +7 |
| Halves | 1018 (best 1018) | 940 (best 940) | Cowboys +78 |
| Hooker | 888 | 1200 | Raiders +312 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Raiders |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Raiders |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Cowboys |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Cowboys |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Cowboys |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Cowboys predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r4-cowboys-v-raiders
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)