AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (287 career games). The combined score of 50 points was 7 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Cowboys's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Cowboys to win at 53% probability. The predicted margin of 1.2 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Cowboys
53%
Raiders
47%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Cowboys a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Raiders are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality — but Cowboys counter with Halves Control and Referee Tendency which tips the scales. Raiders carry a 36-point ELO rating advantage (1482 vs 1446). Recent form favours Raiders with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Cowboys. The margin model predicts Cowboys by 1.2 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Cowboys to Win @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.1%
Line / Spread
Cowboys -1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.1%
Total Points
Under 45.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+10.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Cowboys | WLLLL | 17.2 |
Raiders | WWWWL | 22.8 |
Avg Conceded
29.2
Cowboys
21.2
Raiders
Avg Margin
-12.0
Cowboys
1.6
Raiders
Run Metres
1707
Cowboys
1582
Raiders
Line Breaks
3.6
Cowboys
4.4
Raiders
Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Adam Gee officiates — Cowboys 20W–19L (51%) and Raiders 22W–18L (55%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 42.6 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Cowboys an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
42.6 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
ELO–Market Disagreement
Raiders hold the ELO advantage (1482 vs 1446), but the market favours Cowboys (@1.89).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Cowboys predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +1.2
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