Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Cowboys to win at 53% probability. The predicted margin of 1.2 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (295 career games). The combined score of 50 points was 7 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Cowboys's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Cowboys
53%
Raiders
47%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Cowboys a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Raiders are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Cowboys counter with Halves Control and Referee Tendency which tips the scales. Raiders carry a 36-point ELO rating advantage (1482 vs 1446). Recent form favours Raiders with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Cowboys. The margin model predicts Cowboys by 1.2 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Cowboys to Win @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.1%
Line / Spread
Cowboys -1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.1%
Total Points
Under 45.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+10.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Cowboys | W L L L L | 17.2 |
Raiders | W W W W L | 22.8 |
Avg Conceded
29.2
Cowboys
21.2
Raiders
Avg Margin
-12.0
Cowboys
1.6
Raiders
Run Metres
1707
Cowboys
1582
Raiders
Line Breaks
3.6
Cowboys
4.4
Raiders
Referee Indicator
BalancedAdam Gee
295 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Adam Gee, Cowboys 21W–19L (53%) and Raiders 22W–20L (52%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Cowboys get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Raiders's -0.8. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Raiders hold the ELO advantage (1482 vs 1446), but the market favours Cowboys (@1.89).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Cowboys predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +1.2
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