Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 68% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Sea Eagles by 11.1 vs the actual margin of 14 points. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 38, within 4 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (105 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 8 points below Todd Smith's career average of 46.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sea Eagles
68%
Eels
32%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Eels. The model sees Sea Eagles ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Sea Eagles carry a 222-point ELO rating advantage (1556 vs 1334). Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Eels. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 11.1 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.16
Winner ✓
Edge
-18.9%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles -16.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-18.9%
Total Points
Under 53.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+30.9%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sea Eagles | W W W L L | 27.6 |
Eels | W W L L L | 27.2 |
Avg Conceded
24.4
Sea Eagles
34.0
Eels
Avg Margin
3.2
Sea Eagles
-6.8
Eels
Run Metres
1606
Sea Eagles
1665
Eels
Line Breaks
5.4
Sea Eagles
5.6
Eels
Referee Indicator
BalancedTodd Smith
105 career games · since 2019
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Todd Smith, Sea Eagles 7W–5L (58%) and Eels 9W–7L (56%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.1 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
10.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.50
SB Away %
52%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Sea Eagles get a +1.5 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Eels's -0.5.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
68%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 11 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +11.1
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