AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (99 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 8 points below Todd Smith's career average of 46. Sea Eagles bucked the trend — Eels historically win 60% of games under Todd Smith, but couldn't convert that edge today.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 68% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Sea Eagles by 11.1 vs the actual margin of 14 points. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 38 — within 4 points. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sea Eagles
68%
Eels
32%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Eels. The model sees Sea Eagles ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Sea Eagles carry a 222-point ELO rating advantage (1556 vs 1334). Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Eels. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 11.1 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.16
Winner ✓
Edge
-18.9%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles -16.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-18.9%
Total Points
Under 53.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+30.9%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sea Eagles | WWWLL | 27.6 |
Eels | WWLLL | 27.2 |
Avg Conceded
24.4
Sea Eagles
34.0
Eels
Avg Margin
3.2
Sea Eagles
-6.8
Eels
Run Metres
1606
Sea Eagles
1665
Eels
Line Breaks
5.4
Sea Eagles
5.6
Eels
Each team's win rate when Todd Smith refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Eels hold a 5‑point edge: 9W–6L (60%) vs Sea Eagles's 6W–5L (55%) across all games Todd Smith has refereed for each side. His games average 46.0 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides.
Avg Total
46.0 pts
Home Win %
55%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
68%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 11 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +11.1
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