# Sea Eagles v Eels — NRL Round 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sea Eagles 26 – 12 Eels

_Sea Eagles take flight against Eels._

Half time: 12 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sea Eagles 68% / Eels 32% · Brookvale Oval, Sydney · Sun, 30 Mar, 04:05 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Sea Eagles: Jason Saab (8' 1st Tipped 🎯), Lehi Hopoate (16'), Corey Waddell (62'), Tolutau Koula (67') · Eels: Joe Ofahengaue (55'), Shaun Lane (80')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 68% | Won |
| Eels | 32% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.1 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Manly Sea Eagles vs Parramatta Eels Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 4 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Sea Eagles 26–12 Eels in NRL Round 4 at Brookvale Oval, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sea Eagles 26, Eels 12 at Brookvale Oval. On the sheet that reads like a comfortable home win, and with a 12-0 lead built by half-time, it was. But look past the scoreboard and the collision numbers tell a messier story: the Eels actually out-broke the Sea Eagles in the tackle, 34 to 29, and offloaded the ball more often too, 8 to 7. This wasn't the one-way physical contest the final margin suggests.

The Sea Eagles did the damage early. Jason Saab opened the scoring in the 8th minute, and Lehi Hopoate followed in the 16th to make it 10-0. That's where it stood at the break, 12-0, with the Eels held scoreless for the entire first half.

The Eels hit back after the restart. Joe Ofahengaue crossed in the 55th minute to make it 14-4, and for a while the margin looked gettable. It wasn't.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 12 | 14 | 26 |
| Eels | 0 | 12 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| **55%** | Possession | 45% |
| **86%** | Completion rate | 73% |
| **1,891** | Run metres | 1,433 |
| **590** | Post-contact metres | 412 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 2 |
| 29 | Tackle breaks | **34** |
| 7 | Offloads | **8** |
| 86.3% | Effective tackle % | **90.7%** |
| 34 | Missed tackles | **29** |
| **10** | Errors | 12 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| **779** | Kick metres | 576 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 68% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Sea Eagles by 11.1 vs the actual margin of 14 points. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 38, within 4 points. The model went 5/16 on this match. Sea Eagles covered the 16.5-point line. The under 53.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (121 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 9 points below Todd Smith's career average of 47.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 8' Try — Jason Saab (Sea Eagles) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 16' Try — Lehi Hopoate (Sea Eagles) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 55' Try — Joe Ofahengaue (Eels) — 14-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 62' Try — Corey Waddell (Sea Eagles) — 18-6 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 67' Try — Tolutau Koula (Sea Eagles) — 24-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 79' Try — Shaun Lane (Eels) — 26-10 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.16 (edge -18.9%) — model probability 68.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -16.5 @ $1.91 (edge -18.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +30.9%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 11 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sea Eagles here: 68% to see off Eels. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sea Eagles sit 222 ELO points clear, 1556 to 1334. Form leans Sea Eagles' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Eels.

Sea Eagles own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Sea Eagles by 11.1, with the two sides combining for about 42. Sea Eagles to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Eels have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Eels took the most recent meeting 23-14 in 2026 Round 18.

Sea Eagles have won 3 straight; Sea Eagles have put up 137 points in four games. Eels have won 3 straight; Eels have put up 138 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Sea Eagles 3rd against Eels 17th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sea Eagles 4 · Eels 6 |
| Last meeting | Eels 23-14 |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWW · 137 for, 106 against |
| Sea Eagles at home | 8-4 this season |
| Eels last 4 | LWWW · 138 for, 62 against |
| Eels away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Sea Eagles 3rd · Eels 17th |
| Finals odds | Sea Eagles 0% · Eels 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Todd Smith** — 121 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 7W–6L | 54% |
| Eels | 10W–8L | 56% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

Both sides have a similar record under Todd Smith, Sea Eagles 7W–6L (54%) and Eels 10W–8L (56%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Sea Eagles get a +1.2 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Eels's -0.3.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 27.6pts | Avg Score | 27.2pts |
| 24.4pts | Avg Conceded | 34.0pts |
| 3.2pts | Avg Margin | -6.8pts |
| 1605.8m | Run Metres | 1665.2m |
| 5.4 | Line Breaks | 5.6 |
| 300.6 | Tackles | 308.4 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 3W–2L | 27.6 |
| Eels | 2W–3L | 27.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Eels lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | Eels | 23 – 14 | Sea Eagles |
| 2026 | R8 | Sea Eagles | 33 – 18 | Eels |
| 2025 | R12 | Eels | 30 – 10 | Sea Eagles |
| 2024 | R8 | Sea Eagles | 32 – 18 | Eels |
| 2024 | R3 | Eels | 28 – 24 | Sea Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sea Eagles' best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.67 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 15th there (2.33 conceded/game). Key man: Bullemor, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Eels' best path is the right edge: NRL's 7th-ranked right edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 9th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Penisini, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sea Eagles | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 2/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 7th) | 0.33/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.67/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 7th) | 0.33/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 2.33/g (def 15th (weak)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1/g (def 9th) | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 2.33/g (def 17th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sea Eagles | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 3 | 0 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 184m/g | 117m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.8% | 84.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sea Eagles | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 6 | 6 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 2.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 672m/g | 785m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.3/g | 15.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 5/g | 2.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 74.6% | 71.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sea Eagles | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 1 | 0 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 569m/g | 419m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9/g | 6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.5% | 88.6% |

**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.18/g (lg 0.11) +64% · Hookers 0.24/g (lg 0.15) +60% · Centres 1/g (lg 0.67) +49%
**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.15) +27% · Fullbacks 0.55/g (lg 0.44) +25% · 2nd Rows 0.51/g (lg 0.44) +16%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Brookvale Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Trbojevic | FB | 1 in 2g | 10/10g (2·0·2·1·3·1·0·0·0·1) | 7/13g | 36/53g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.46 AI 71% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 2 in 3g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 2/6g | 18/29g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.43 AI 74% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 8' |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 11/26g | 28% | — | 🏉 67' |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 5 in 3g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·4) | 13/12g | 37/50g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.93 AI 77% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | WG | 0 in 3g | 5/10g (1·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/8g | 41% | — | 🏉 16' |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/18g | 5/19g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans | HB | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 7/25g | 39/129g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 57% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Josh Aloiai | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 1/28g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Jazz Tevaga | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Siosiua Taukeiaho | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/8g | 16/34g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 7/24g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/17g | 17/89g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Simpkin | INT | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Corey Waddell | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/25g | 14% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 16 | Ethan Bullemor | INT | 3 in 3g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 0/10g | 4/27g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.50 AI 66% ✗ No try | — |
| 17 | Nathan Brown | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/16g | 0% | — | — |

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 1 in 3g | 1/5g (0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 2 | Sean Russell | WG | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 36% | — | — |
| 3 | Will Penisini | CE | 2 in 3g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·2·1·0·1) | 3/6g | 1/3g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 67% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Zac Lomax | CE | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 1/1g | 38% | — | — |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 1 in 1g | 8/10g (0·0·0·2·2·0·1·1·1·1) | 6/13g | 2/5g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 65% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Dylan Brown | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/5g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Dean Hawkins | HB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 9 | Joey Lussick | HK | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/20g | 0/9g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Shaun Lane | 2R | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 6/16g | 14% | — | 🏉 80' |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | J'maine Hopgood | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Ryley Smith | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 1/2g | 8% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 17 | Dan Keir | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sea Eagles 1556 · Eels 1334 · ELO difference: 222 in favour of Sea Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sea Eagles | Eels | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1074 (best 1331) | 1000 (best 1203) | Sea Eagles +73 |
| Backs | 956 (best 1068) | 1027 (best 1136) | Eels +71 |
| Halves | 1115 (best 1115) | 1066 (best 1066) | Sea Eagles +49 |
| Hooker | 600 | 1104 | Eels +504 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Eels |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sea Eagles |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Sea Eagles predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)