# Rabbitohs v Panthers — NRL Round 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Rabbitohs 28 – 18 Panthers

_Rabbitohs scamper past Panthers._

Half time: 28 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Rabbitohs 36% / Panthers 64% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Thu, 27 Mar, 08:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Rabbitohs: Keaon Koloamatangi (6' 1st), Alex Johnston (9' Tipped ⚡), Keaon Koloamatangi (28' 1st), Davvy Moale (32'), Jye Gray (39' Tipped ⚡) · Panthers: Liam Martin (47'), Bradley Schneider (57'), Jack Cole (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 64% | Lost |
| Rabbitohs | 36% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 7.1 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Penrith Panthers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 4 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Rabbitohs 28–18 Panthers in NRL Round 4 at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-eight unanswered points is not a lead, it's a landslide, and Souths built theirs in the space of 33 minutes. Keaon Koloamatangi opened it inside five minutes, Alex Johnston stretched it to 10-0 by the ninth, and by the time Jye Gray crossed in the 38th minute the Rabbitohs had put up five tries to none. Penrith walked into the sheds at half-time facing a 28-point deficit they'd never faced before this season.

The final score read Rabbitohs 28, Panthers 18, and the shape of that gap explains most of what happened. Souths did all their scoring before the break, then spent the second half defending it, a very different job to the one they'd been doing all night. Liam Martin got Penrith moving in the 47th minute, Bradley Schneider followed in the 57th, and Jack Cole snuck one over in the 79th after Peter Mamouzelos had been sent to the bin. Three tries, but no way back from that opening burst.

Strip out the scoreboard and the stat sheet explains why Penrith couldn't find another gear early. Souths ran the ball cleaner all night, completing at 82 per cent against Penrith's 69 per cent, and coughed it up just 10 times to Penrith's 16. Add the penalty count, two conceded to six, and the Rabbitohs simply had more sets to work with. When you're building a 28-point buffer, that kind of control matters more than any single collision.

Penrith actually won a few of the arm wrestle numbers. More run metres, 1,796 to 1,641. More post-contact metres, 579 to 553. More tackle breaks, 37 to 34, and a far busier offload count, 16 to Souths' four. Their effective tackle percentage of 91.5 per cent against Souths' 84.0 per cent says the defensive line was doing its job too, eventually. Trouble is, all of that came alongside 16 errors and six penalties conceded, and none of it existed in the first half when the game was actually decided.

Souths also owned the boot, banking 852 kick metres to Penrith's 393, which kept field position firmly in their favour and let their line-break edge, six to five, do the damage that counted. Individually it was the Koloamatangi show, with tries in the 5th and 27th minutes, and Johnston, Davvy Moale and Gray all chiming in before the half was done.

None of this lines up with what walked in the door. Penrith rated stronger in forwards and backs, Souths had the edge in halves and hooker, and on recent form Penrith were averaging 28 points a game to Souths' 18.6, with a positive average margin where Souths sat deep in the red. Alphr's model backed that form line, giving Penrith a 64 per cent chance and a projected 7.1-point win. Instead Souths won by 10.

The model's combined total pick of 40 wasn't far off the actual 46, within six points, and its under 48.5 total call landed too. Small mercies on a night it otherwise got wrong, finishing 3 from 16 on this one.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 28 | 0 | 28 |
| Panthers | 0 | 18 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| **54%** | Possession | 46% |
| **82%** | Completion rate | 69% |
| 1,641 | Run metres | **1,796** |
| 553 | Post-contact metres | **579** |
| **6** | Line breaks | 5 |
| 34 | Tackle breaks | **37** |
| 4 | Offloads | **16** |
| 84.0% | Effective tackle % | **91.5%** |
| 37 | Missed tackles | **34** |
| **10** | Errors | 16 |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| **852** | Kick metres | 393 |

**Model Report Card**

Rabbitohs defied the model's 64% prediction for Panthers, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.1 but the actual margin was 10 points. Total score prediction of 40 was close to the actual 46, within 6 points. The model went 3/16 on this match. The under 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (422 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Rabbitohs's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Keaon Koloamatangi (Rabbitohs) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 9' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 27' Try — Keaon Koloamatangi (Rabbitohs) — 16-0 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 32' Try — Davvy Moale (Rabbitohs) — 22-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 38' Try — Jye Gray (Rabbitohs) — 28-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 47' Try — Liam Martin (Panthers) — 28-4 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 57' Try — Bradley Schneider (Panthers) — 28-10 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 78' Sin Bin — Peter Mamouzelos (Rabbitohs) — 28-10 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 79' Try — Jack Cole (Panthers) — 28-16 · win-prob swing -2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.35 (edge -11.3%) — model probability 63.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers +11.5 @ $1.91 (edge -11.3%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +22.7%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 7 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Panthers are the call at 64%, but Rabbitohs stay live at 36%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Panthers sit 186 ELO points clear, 1594 to 1408. Form leans Panthers' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Rabbitohs.

Panthers own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Panthers by 7.1, with the two sides combining for about 40. Lean Panthers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Panthers have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Panthers took the most recent meeting 36-14 in 2026 Round 18.

Panthers have put up 124 points in four games. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Rabbitohs 11th against Panthers 12th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Rabbitohs 2 · Panthers 8 |
| Last meeting | Panthers 36-14 |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WWWL · 86 for, 70 against |
| Rabbitohs at home | 6-6 this season |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 124 for, 70 against |
| Panthers away | 9-6 this season |
| Ladder | Rabbitohs 11th · Panthers 12th |
| Finals odds | Rabbitohs 0% · Panthers 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Ashley Klein** — 422 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 32W–29L | 52% |
| Panthers | 30W–28L | 52% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Ashley Klein, Rabbitohs 32W–29L (52%) and Panthers 30W–28L (52%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Rabbitohs get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Panthers's -0.2.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 18.6pts | Avg Score | 28.0pts |
| 27.0pts | Avg Conceded | 21.2pts |
| -8.4pts | Avg Margin | 6.8pts |
| 1492.4m | Run Metres | 1786.6m |
| 3.0 | Line Breaks | 5.8 |
| 338.0 | Tackles | 348.2 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 2W–3L | 18.6 |
| Panthers | 3W–2L | 28.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | Panthers | 36 – 14 | Rabbitohs |
| 2025 | R20 | Panthers | 30 – 10 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R26 | Panthers | 34 – 12 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R9 | Rabbitohs | 12 – 42 | Panthers |
| 2023 | R8 | Rabbitohs | 20 – 18 | Panthers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Rabbitohs' best path is the middle: NRL's 4th-ranked middle attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 12th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Walker, 1 tries in that channel this season.
- Panthers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (2.33 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 5th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Alamoti, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Rabbitohs | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.67/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) | 2.33/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.67/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 9th) | 1.67/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 2/g (def 12th) |
| Right | 0.67/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 8th) | 0.67/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Rabbitohs | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 4 | 0 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 180m/g | 178m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.7/g | 2.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.8% | 83.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Rabbitohs | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 7 | 11 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 2.7/g |
| Run Metres | 686m/g | 673m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.7/g | 14.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 4.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 74.6% | 75.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Rabbitohs | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 2 | 1 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 466m/g | 488m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.7/g | 5.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.7% | 91.4% |

**Who scores on Panthers** — Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.15) +7% · Fullbacks 0.4/g (lg 0.45) -11% · 2nd Rows 0.35/g (lg 0.44) -20%
**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.41/g (lg 0.26) +58% · Halfbacks 0.27/g (lg 0.22) +23% · Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.15) +20%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jye Gray | FB | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 3/6g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 39' |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | no games | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·2·2·0) | 12/18g | 79/85g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.07 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 9' |
| 3 | Jack Wighton | CE | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/20g | 5/15g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Isaiah Tass | CE | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 4/21g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Mikaele Ravalawa | WG | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/4g | 2/4g | 38% | — | — |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 9/19g | 34/86g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 40% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Jamie Humphreys | HB | 1 in 3g | 2/5g (1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| 8 | Sean Keppie | PR | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/8g | 1/13g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Peter Mamouzelos | HK | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/14g | 9% | — | — |
| 10 | Davvy Moale | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/22g | 6% | — | 🏉 32' |
| 11 | Keaon Koloamatangi | 2R | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 8/39g | 16% | — | 🏉 6' 28' |
| 12 | Jai Arrow | 2R | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 2/29g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Tallis Duncan | LK | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/12g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Sullivan | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Siliva Havili | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 1/17g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Liam Le Blanc | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 4/55g | 8% | — | — |

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daine Laurie | FB | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 2/5g | 2/4g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 51% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Paul Alamoti | WG | 4 in 3g | 8/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·1·1·1·2) | 0/2g | 3/10g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.63 AI 76% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Izack Tago | CE | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/9g | 2/9g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Thomas Jenkins | CE | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Brian To'o | WG | 3 in 2g | 8/10g (2·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·2) | 5/12g | 11/13g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.56 AI 78% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jack Cole | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 17% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 7 | Trent Toelau | HB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 1/17g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Mitch Kenny | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 1/11g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Scott Sorensen | 2R | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/9g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Martin | 2R | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 3/12g | 24% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 13 | Isaah Yeo | LK | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/21g | 1/22g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Isaiah Papali'i | PR | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/10g | 2/13g | 18% | — | — |
| 16 | Liam Henry | INT | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Luke Garner | INT | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 4/11g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $7.25 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Rabbitohs 1408 · Panthers 1594 · ELO difference: 186 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Rabbitohs | Panthers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 972 (best 1120) | 1049 (best 1227) | Panthers +77 |
| Backs | 775 (best 861) | 1039 (best 1159) | Panthers +263 |
| Halves | 1145 (best 1145) | 946 (best 946) | Rabbitohs +199 |
| Hooker | 1122 | 800 | Rabbitohs +322 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Panthers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Panthers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Panthers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Panthers predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)