Win Probability
AI Game Review
Rabbitohs defied the model's 64% prediction for Panthers, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.1 but the actual margin was 10 points. Total score prediction of 40 was close to the actual 46, within 6 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 48.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (386 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Rabbitohs's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Rabbitohs
36%
Panthers
64%
AI Match Overview
Panthers hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Rabbitohs are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Panthers ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Panthers carry a 186-point ELO rating advantage (1594 vs 1408). Recent form favours Panthers with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Panthers by 7.1 points with a combined total of 40.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.35
Lost ✗
Edge
-11.3%
Line / Spread
Panthers +11.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-11.3%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+22.7%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | W W L L L | 18.6 |
Panthers | W W W L L | 28.0 |
Avg Conceded
27.0
Rabbitohs
21.2
Panthers
Avg Margin
-8.4
Rabbitohs
6.8
Panthers
Run Metres
1492
Rabbitohs
1787
Panthers
Line Breaks
3.0
Rabbitohs
5.8
Panthers
Referee Indicator
BalancedAshley Klein
386 career games · since 2010
Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Ashley Klein, Rabbitohs 30W–28L (52%) and Panthers 29W–28L (51%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
43.6 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
8.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.16
SB Away %
42%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ashley Klein averages just 8.9 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Panthers predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 40 · Line: -7.1
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