Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Broncos to win at 54% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Broncos by 4.0 vs the actual margin of 8 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (367 career games). The combined score of 32 points was 10 points below Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Broncos's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Broncos have a 59% win rate under this referee. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Broncos prevailed. 61% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dolphins
46%
Broncos
54%
AI Match Overview
Broncos hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though Dolphins are far from out of this at 46%. The model sees Broncos ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Broncos carry a 127-point ELO rating advantage (1499 vs 1371). Recent form favours Broncos with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Dolphins. The margin model predicts Broncos by 4.0 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Broncos to Win @1.20
Winner ✓
Edge
-26.5%
Line / Spread
Broncos +13.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-26.5%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+14.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dolphins | W L L L L | 18.0 |
Broncos | W W L L L | 23.2 |
Avg Conceded
18.4
Dolphins
30.4
Broncos
Avg Margin
-0.4
Dolphins
-7.2
Broncos
Run Metres
1744
Dolphins
1562
Broncos
Line Breaks
4.0
Dolphins
5.0
Broncos
Referee Indicator
Favours BroncosGerard Sutton
367 career games · since 2011
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Gerard Sutton officiates, Broncos have won 35 of 59 games (59%), significantly stronger than Dolphins's 5 from 13 (38%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.0 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
54%
Broncos predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: -4.0
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