# Dolphins v Broncos — NRL Round 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dolphins 12 – 20 Broncos

_Broncos buck off Dolphins._

Half time: 6 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dolphins 46% / Broncos 54% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Fri, 28 Mar, 08:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Dolphins: Max Plath (20'), Jake Averillo (76' Tipped ⚡) · Broncos: Gehamat Shibasaki (11' 1st), Cory Paix (15'), Kotoni Staggs (29' Tipped ⚡), Gehamat Shibasaki (56' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 54% | Won |
| Dolphins | 46% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.0 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Redcliffe Dolphins vs Brisbane Broncos Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 4 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Dolphins 12–20 Broncos in NRL Round 4 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Brisbane led 16-6 at the break at Suncorp Stadium, and by full time that lead had only shrunk by two points. Broncos 20, Dolphins 12 was the final scoreline, and while the margin narrowed slightly across the second half, Brisbane were never troubled enough to suggest the game was actually up for grabs.

The first half was one-way traffic in terms of tries. Gehamat Shibasaki opened the scoring in the 11th minute, and Cory Paix added another three minutes later to make it 0-8. The Dolphins finally got on the board through Max Plath in the 19th, cutting it to 4-10, but Kotoni Staggs restored the ten-point buffer in the 29th. That's how it stood at the break: 16-6, Broncos.

The second half didn't produce the fightback the Dolphins needed. Shibasaki grabbed his second in the 55th minute to push it to 6-20, and although Jake Averillo crossed in the 75th to make the final score 12-20, it came too late to change anything. Brisbane controlled the shape of the contest from the 11th minute onward and never really had to defend that control.

The stat sheet reads oddly for the losing side. The Dolphins had 53 per cent of possession, ran for 1,796 metres to Brisbane's 1,511, and put up 591 post-contact metres against the Broncos' 506. They also offloaded 13 times to Brisbane's 5, and their effective tackle rate, 87.7 per cent, edged out Brisbane's 86.3. Pre-match ratings had the Dolphins forward pack rated higher too, 1104 to 1065, and the numbers backed that up. None of it translated into points when it counted.

Where Brisbane actually won the game was with the ball in better order. They completed at 89 per cent against the Dolphins' 80, coughed up just 6 errors to 9, and broke the line 5 times to the Dolphins' 3. Brisbane's hooker rating, 1152 to the Dolphins' 1115, lines up with the tidier ruck speed and cleaner execution through the middle. Add in 1,100 kick metres to the Dolphins' 684, and Brisbane were dictating territory even while conceding the bulk of the ball.

Penalties ran the other way, Brisbane conceding 5 to the Dolphins' 2, and missed tackles favoured the Broncos too, 42 to 46. Neither mattered much against four tries to two and a completion rate that let Brisbane control the ball when it counted.

Alphr's model had Brisbane favourites by 4 points on a combined total of 44, with the Broncos rated 1499 to the Dolphins' 1371 pre-match. The actual margin came in at 8, double the model's pick, and the 39-2 combined total this time out on the model's 44 speaks to just how much of the game was decided by field position and completion rather than raw yardage.

Recent form pointed this way too. Brisbane came in having won 2 of their last 5 to the Dolphins' 1, averaging 23.2 points scored against 18 for the Dolphins, and conceding a lot less on the same sample, 30.4 to 18.4. That gap showed up again at Suncorp: the Dolphins did plenty of the donkey work up front, but Brisbane took the points when they mattered.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Broncos | 16 | 4 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dolphins | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| 80% | Completion rate | **89%** |
| **1,796** | Run metres | 1,511 |
| **591** | Post-contact metres | 506 |
| 3 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 42 | Tackle breaks | **46** |
| **13** | Offloads | 5 |
| **87.7%** | Effective tackle % | 86.3% |
| 46 | Missed tackles | **42** |
| 9 | Errors | **6** |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| 684 | Kick metres | **1,100** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Broncos to win at 54% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Broncos by 4.0 vs the actual margin of 8 points. The model went 5/16 on this match. Broncos covered the 13.5-point line. The under 49.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The combined score of 32 points was 10 points below Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Broncos's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Broncos have a 58% win rate under this referee. Despite Gerard Sutton's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Broncos prevailed. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 11' Try — Gehamat Shibasaki (Broncos) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 14' Try — Cory Paix (Broncos) — 0-8 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 19' Try — Max Plath (Dolphins) — 4-10 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 29' Try — Kotoni Staggs (Broncos) — 6-14 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 55' Try — Gehamat Shibasaki (Broncos) — 6-20 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 75' Try — Jake Averillo (Dolphins) — 10-20 · win-prob swing +2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.20 (edge -26.5%) — model probability 54.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos +13.5 @ $1.91 (edge -26.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +14.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 4 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Broncos are the call at 54%, but Dolphins stay live at 46%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Broncos sit 127 ELO points clear, 1499 to 1371. Form leans Broncos' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Dolphins.

On paper Dolphins shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Halves Control and Referee Tendency. The model still sides with Broncos, which says ELO Difference and Recent Win Rate carry the most weight. The margin model has Broncos by 4.0, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Broncos, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Broncos have won 6 of the last 8 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 40-32 in 2026 Round 23.

Dolphins have put up 156 points in four games. Broncos have won 7 straight. Broncos have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Dolphins 15th against Broncos 4th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | Dolphins 2 · Broncos 6 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 40-32 |
| Dolphins last 4 | LLWW · 156 for, 150 against |
| Dolphins at home | 7-5 this season |
| Broncos last 4 | WWWW · 101 for, 78 against |
| Broncos away | 8-6 this season |
| Ladder | Dolphins 15th · Broncos 4th |
| Finals odds | Dolphins 0% · Broncos 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Broncos

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 6W–8L | 43% |
| Broncos | 35W–25L | 58% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Gerard Sutton officiates, Broncos have won 35 of 60 games (58%), significantly stronger than Dolphins's 6 from 14 (43%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. Dolphins get a +0.1 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Broncos's -0.5. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dolphins | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 18.0pts | Avg Score | 23.2pts |
| 18.4pts | Avg Conceded | 30.4pts |
| -0.4pts | Avg Margin | -7.2pts |
| 1743.8m | Run Metres | 1562.4m |
| 4.0 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 367.6 | Tackles | 329.6 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 1W–4L | 18.0 |
| Broncos | 2W–3L | 23.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Broncos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Dolphins | 40 – 32 | Broncos |
| 2026 | R4 | Broncos | 26 – 12 | Dolphins |
| 2025 | R24 | Broncos | 38 – 28 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R26 | Dolphins | 40 – 6 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R6 | Broncos | 28 – 14 | Dolphins |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dolphins' best path is the right edge: NRL's 7th-ranked right edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 8th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Isaako, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Broncos' best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 16th there (2.33 conceded/game). Key man: Cobbo, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dolphins | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.33/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 9th) | 2.67/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.67/g (att 7th) · concedes 2/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 2.33/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.33/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dolphins | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 1 | 3 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 182m/g | 111m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.5% | 86.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dolphins | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 9 | 11 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 767m/g | 714m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.3/g | 17/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.6% | 75.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dolphins | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 2 | 3 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 494m/g | 628m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6/g | 13.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.6% | 90.3% |

**Who scores on Broncos** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.11) +36% · Centres 0.67/g (lg 0.66) +2% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.15) +0%
**Who scores on Dolphins** — Halfbacks 0.31/g (lg 0.22) +41% · Centres 0.92/g (lg 0.66) +39% · Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.15) +33%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 9/18g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 2/5g | 28/63g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | CE | 0 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 6/14g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 52% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 2/1g | 19/53g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Jack Bostock | WG | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 5/12g | 47% | — | — |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 18/71g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 3/16g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Daniel Saifiti | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 1/9g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/21g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Felise Kaufusi | PR | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 2/31g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Max Plath | 2R | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/8g | 18% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 13 | Tom Gilbert | LK | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/11g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Donoghoe | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Mark Nicholls | INT | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/14g | 6/29g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Ray Stone | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/18g | 2% | — | — |

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 1 in 3g | 7/10g (1·0·1·1·1·2·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 13/25g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.71 AI 60% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 4 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·3·1·0) | 6/4g | 26/41g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.56 AI 61% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | no games | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·2·1·0) | 1/4g | 34/66g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 17% | — | 🏉 11' 56' |
| 5 | Jesse Arthars | WG | 5 in 3g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·3·1) | 1/4g | 12/38g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.55 AI 71% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ben Hunt | 5/8 | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 25/103g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Reynolds | HB | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 6/47g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Patrick Carrigan | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/54g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Cory Paix | HK | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/30g | 12% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 8/68g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Jack Gosiewski | 2R | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 3/9g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 13/56g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Kobe Hetherington | LK | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/44g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Billy Walters | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 6/40g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Corey Jensen | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/38g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Xavier Willison | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/18g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Brendan Piakura | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/16g | 13% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dolphins 1371 · Broncos 1499 · ELO difference: 127 in favour of Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dolphins | Broncos | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1104 (best 1220) | 1065 (best 1342) | Dolphins +39 |
| Backs | 946 (best 1047) | 953 (best 1030) | Broncos +7 |
| Halves | 1200 (best 1200) | 1156 (best 1156) | Dolphins +44 |
| Hooker | 1115 | 1152 | Broncos +37 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Broncos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dolphins |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Dolphins |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Broncos predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)