# Sharks v Bulldogs — NRL Round 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sharks 6 – 20 Bulldogs

_Bulldogs hound Sharks._

Half time: 6 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sharks 74% / Bulldogs 26% · Sharks Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 29 Mar, 07:35 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Sharks: KL Iro (31') · Bulldogs: Jacob Preston (11' 1st), Bronson Xerri (37' Tipped ⚡), Stephen Crichton (45'), Bronson Xerri (62' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 74% | Lost |
| Bulldogs | 26% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 9.2 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cronulla Sharks vs Canterbury Bulldogs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 4 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Sharks 6–20 Bulldogs in NRL Round 4 at Sharks Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fourteen errors against eight, that's the number that sits at the heart of Sharks' 6-20 loss to Bulldogs at Sharks Stadium. Give a side with Bulldogs' shape that many extra chances with the ball and a home ground doesn't count for much.

The scoreboard had Sharks in it early enough. Jacob Preston opened the scoring for Bulldogs in the 10th minute, and Sharks hit back through KL Iro in the 31st to level it at 4-4. That was as good as it got for the home side. Bronson Xerri crossed in the 37th to put Bulldogs back in front, and they took an 8-6 lead into the sheds.

Whatever adjustments Sharks made at half-time didn't stick. Stephen Crichton scored three minutes into the second half to make it 12-6, and Xerri claimed his second in the 62nd to blow it out to 18-6. Sitili Tupouniua's sin bin in the 79th was just a footnote by then, Bulldogs already home.

The stat sheet backs up the eye test. Bulldogs ran 55% of the possession and completed at 85% to Sharks' 80%, the kind of gap that lets a team dictate territory without ever looking rushed. They doubled Sharks up on line breaks, six to three, and out-muscled them for post-contact metres, 509 to 458. Add in 967 kick metres to 667 and Bulldogs spent the night camped where they wanted to be.

Sharks did win the discipline battle, six penalties conceded to Bulldogs' ten, and their effective tackle percentage edged it too, 89.4% to 88.7%. None of it mattered much when the ball kept leaking out of their own hands. Fourteen errors is a lot to hand back to a team building field position off the boot.

It's a genuine form reversal too. Sharks came in conceding just 19.2 points a game across their last five, Bulldogs leaking 24. On the stats alone Sharks looked the tighter defensive unit, and their halves rating, 1410 to 1281, was the biggest gap on the sheet. None of that showed up where it counted. Bulldogs' forward pack edge, 1103 to 1085, turned into real yardage and cheap tries off field position instead.

Alphr's model had Sharks winning this three times out of four, a 74% call, and tipped them by 9.2 on a total of 38. Bulldogs won by 14 in a match that finished on 26 points combined, comfortably under that number. The model's under call landed, the head-to-head and margin calls didn't, finishing 2 from 16 on this one.

Wins and misses, all of it. Bulldogs turned a tighter possession share and a cleaner completion rate into four tries and a 14-point win, and Sharks' discipline edge never got the chance to matter.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| Bulldogs | 8 | 12 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sharks | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 45% | Possession | **55%** |
| 80% | Completion rate | **85%** |
| 1,458 | Run metres | **1,536** |
| 458 | Post-contact metres | **509** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 27 | Tackle breaks | 27 |
| 9 | Offloads | **13** |
| **89.4%** | Effective tackle % | 88.7% |
| 27 | Missed tackles | 27 |
| 14 | Errors | **8** |
| **6** | Penalties conceded | 10 |
| 667 | Kick metres | **967** |

**Model Report Card**

Bulldogs defied the model's 74% prediction for Sharks, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.2 but the actual margin was 14 points. Bulldogs led 6–8 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. The model went 2/16 on this match. The under 43.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Chris Butler officiated this match (156 career games). The combined score of 26 points was 18 points below Chris Butler's career average of 44. Bulldogs's victory aligns with Chris Butler's historical trend, Bulldogs have a 45% win rate under this referee. Despite Chris Butler's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Bulldogs prevailed. Chris Butler averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 10' Try — Jacob Preston (Bulldogs) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 31' Try — KL Iro (Sharks) — 4-4 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 37' Try — Bronson Xerri (Bulldogs) — 6-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 45' Try — Stephen Crichton (Bulldogs) — 6-12 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 62' Try — Bronson Xerri (Bulldogs) — 6-18 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 79' Sin Bin — Sitili Tupouniua (Bulldogs) — 6-18 · win-prob swing +2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.26 (edge -5.4%) — model probability 74.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -11.5 @ $1.91 (edge -5.4%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.3%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 9 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sharks here: 74% to see off Bulldogs. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sharks sit 32 ELO points clear, 1588 to 1556.

Sharks own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Sharks by 9.2, with the two sides combining for about 38. Sharks to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Sharks have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Sharks took the most recent meeting 38-16 in 2026 Round 11.

Sharks are 11-2 at home this year. Bulldogs have lost 3 straight.

On the ladder it's Sharks 6th against Bulldogs 2nd.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sharks 8 · Bulldogs 2 |
| Last meeting | Sharks 38-16 |
| Sharks last 4 | WWWL · 90 for, 50 against |
| Sharks at home | 11-2 this season |
| Bulldogs last 4 | WLLL · 78 for, 100 against |
| Bulldogs away | 7-6 this season |
| Ladder | Sharks 6th · Bulldogs 2nd |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Bulldogs

**Chris Butler** — 156 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Chris Butler | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 5W–9L | 36% |
| Bulldogs | 10W–12L | 45% |

Avg total: 43.7 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Bulldogs hold a 9-point edge: 10W–12L (45%) vs Sharks's 5W–9L (36%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Chris Butler averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.7 against away. Sharks get a +0.1 penalty advantage under Chris Butler vs Bulldogs's -1.2.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sharks | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 23.4pts | Avg Score | 22.4pts |
| 19.2pts | Avg Conceded | 24.0pts |
| 4.2pts | Avg Margin | -1.6pts |
| 1792.4m | Run Metres | 1609.2m |
| 5.8 | Line Breaks | 4.2 |
| 344.6 | Tackles | 362.0 |
| 12.6 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 3W–2L | 23.4 |
| Bulldogs | 3W–2L | 22.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R11 | Sharks | 38 – 16 | Bulldogs |
| 2025 | R27 | Bulldogs | 6 – 24 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R17 | Bulldogs | 15 – 14 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R2 | Sharks | 25 – 6 | Bulldogs |
| 2023 | R16 | Sharks | 48 – 10 | Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sharks' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (2.67 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 9th there (1.33 conceded/game). Key man: Iro, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Bulldogs' best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (3 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 11th there (1.67 conceded/game). Key man: Tracey, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sharks | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 2.67/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.33/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.67/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.33/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.67/g (def 11th) | 3/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1.33/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 8th) | 1.33/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sharks | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 1 | 1 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 2.7/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 169m/g | 139m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.8% | 81.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sharks | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 5 | 7 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 829m/g | 795m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 23/g | 12.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 5/g | 2.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.8% | 79.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sharks | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 1 | 4 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 573m/g | 464m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11/g | 9.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.8% | 88.2% |

**Who scores on Bulldogs** — Centres 0.83/g (lg 0.66) +26% · 2nd Rows 0.54/g (lg 0.44) +23% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.16) +6%
**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.11) +36% · Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.15) +33% · Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.22) +9%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sharks Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/7g | 1/1g | 26% | — | — |
| 2 | Samuel Stonestreet | WG | 2 in 3g | 10/10g (0·1·0·1·2·2·2·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 72% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | 4 in 3g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 0/3g | 1/1g | 32% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 1 in 3g | 9/10g (3·1·1·2·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 6/7g | 0/1g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 1/1g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/8g | 1/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/13g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Oregon Kaufusi | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 3 in 3g | 8/10g (1·1·0·2·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 4/10g | 1/1g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/17g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Daniel Atkinson | INT | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 17 | Tuku Hau Tapuha | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Blake Wilson | WG | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Bronson Xerri | CE | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (1·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 36% ✓ Scored | 🏉 37' 62' |
| 4 | Stephen Crichton | CE | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 0/0g | 38% | — | 🏉 45' |
| 5 | Marcelo Montoya | WG | 2 in 3g | 7/10g (2·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Bailey Hayward | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | HK | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/9g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Daniel Suluka-Fifita | PR | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Josh Curran | 2R | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | LK | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | INT | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/14g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Harry Hayes | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Sitili Tupouniua | INT | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.75 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $56.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sharks 1588 · Bulldogs 1556 · ELO difference: 32 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sharks | Bulldogs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1085 (best 1298) | 1103 (best 1248) | Bulldogs +18 |
| Backs | 1097 (best 1184) | 1051 (best 1132) | Sharks +46 |
| Halves | 1410 (best 1410) | 1281 (best 1281) | Sharks +129 |
| Hooker | 1001 | 945 | Sharks +56 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sharks |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Bulldogs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sharks |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Sharks |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sharks |

**Model Confidence: 74%** — Sharks predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)