AI Referee Insights
Chris Butler officiated this match (155 career games). The combined score of 26 points was 18 points below Chris Butler's career average of 44. Despite Chris Butler's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Bulldogs prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Bulldogs defied the model's 74% prediction for Sharks — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 9.2 but the actual margin was 14 points. Bulldogs led 6–8 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 43.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sharks
74%
Bulldogs
26%
AI Match Overview
Sharks are clear favourites here at 74%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Bulldogs. The model sees Sharks ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Sharks carry a 32-point ELO rating advantage (1588 vs 1556). The margin model predicts Sharks by 9.2 points with a combined total of 38.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.26
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.4%
Line / Spread
Sharks -11.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.4%
Total Points
Under 43.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+15.3%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sharks | WWWLL | 23.4 |
Bulldogs | WWWLL | 22.4 |
Avg Conceded
19.2
Sharks
24.0
Bulldogs
Avg Margin
4.2
Sharks
-1.6
Bulldogs
Run Metres
1792
Sharks
1609
Bulldogs
Line Breaks
5.8
Sharks
4.2
Bulldogs
Each team's win rate when Chris Butler refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Chris Butler officiates — Sharks 5W–8L (38%) and Bulldogs 9W–12L (43%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 43.8 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Sharks an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
43.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
74%
Sharks predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 38 · Line: +9.2
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