# NRL Round 4 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Round 4 of the 2025 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 4 at a glance
- 8 matches · 11W–13L on 24 settled picks (46% strike rate) · best value +30.9% edge

## Round 4 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles v Eels | Sea Eagles @ $1.16 | Sea Eagles 68% | WON |
| Rabbitohs v Panthers | Panthers @ $1.35 | Panthers 64% | LOST |
| Sharks v Bulldogs | Sharks @ $1.26 | Sharks 74% | LOST |
| Wests Tigers v Warriors | Wests Tigers @ $1.65 | Wests Tigers 65% | LOST |
| Dolphins v Broncos | Broncos @ $1.20 | Broncos 54% | WON |
| Roosters v Titans | Roosters @ $1.55 | Roosters 61% | LOST |
| Cowboys v Raiders | Cowboys @ $1.89 | Cowboys 53% | WON |
| Dragons v Storm | Storm @ $1.42 | Storm 52% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### Sea Eagles v Eels
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · 4 Pines Park · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: Sea Eagles 68.0% / Eels 32.0%
- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.16 (edge -18.9%) — model probability 68.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -16.5 @ $1.91 (edge -18.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +30.9%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 11 · Predicted total: 42
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r4-sea-eagles-v-eels

### Rabbitohs v Panthers
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Accor Stadium · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: Rabbitohs 36.1% / Panthers 63.9%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.35 (edge -11.3%) — model probability 63.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers +11.5 @ $1.91 (edge -11.3%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +22.7%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 7 · Predicted total: 40
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r4-rabbitohs-v-panthers

### Sharks v Bulldogs
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Sharks Stadium · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: Sharks 74.0% / Bulldogs 26.0%
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.26 (edge -5.4%) — model probability 74.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -11.5 @ $1.91 (edge -5.4%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.3%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 9 · Predicted total: 38
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r4-sharks-v-bulldogs

### Wests Tigers v Warriors
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Campbelltown Sports Stadium · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: Wests Tigers 65.1% / Warriors 34.9%
- **Head to Head:** Wests Tigers to win @ $1.65 (edge +3.0%) — model probability 65.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +14.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wests Tigers by 6 · Predicted total: 40
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r4-wests-tigers-v-warriors

### Dolphins v Broncos
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Suncorp Stadium · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: Dolphins 45.9% / Broncos 54.1%
- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.20 (edge -26.5%) — model probability 54.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos +13.5 @ $1.91 (edge -26.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +14.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 4 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r4-dolphins-v-broncos

### Roosters v Titans
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Allianz Stadium · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: Roosters 61.1% / Titans 38.9%
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.55 (edge -5.6%) — model probability 61.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge -5.6%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +12.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 6 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r4-roosters-v-titans

### Cowboys v Raiders
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Queensland Country Bank Stadium · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: Cowboys 53.3% / Raiders 46.7%
- **Head to Head:** Cowboys to win @ $1.89 (edge +10.0%) — model probability 53.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 1 · Predicted total: 42
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r4-cowboys-v-raiders

### Dragons v Storm
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Jubilee Stadium · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: Dragons 47.6% / Storm 52.4%
- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.42 (edge -21.6%) — model probability 52.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Storm +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge -21.6%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Storm by 4 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r4-dragons-v-storm

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 61.5% | 131/213 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 60.4% | 128/212 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 53.8% | 114/212 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/3 (markdown: /nrl/2025/round/3.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/5 (markdown: /nrl/2025/round/5.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/4
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-05 03:25 UTC