# Wests Tigers v Warriors — NRL Round 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wests Tigers 24 – 26 Warriors

_Warriors hold off a fast-finishing Wests Tigers._

Half time: 12 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wests Tigers 65% / Warriors 35% · Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 30 Mar, 06:15 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Wests Tigers: Fonua Pole (11'), Starford To'a (38'), Solomona Faataape (49' Tipped ⚡), Latu Fainu (52') · Warriors: Adam Pompey (5' 1st), Marata Niukore (33'), Luke Metcalf (42' Tipped ⚡), Leka Halasima (70')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 65% | Lost |
| Warriors | 35% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 6.2 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wests Tigers vs New Zealand Warriors Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 4 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Wests Tigers 24–26 Warriors in NRL Round 4 at Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Nearly five hundred metres. That's the gap between Warriors' 2,051 run metres and Wests Tigers' 1,558, and it's the number that explains how the Warriors got out of Campbelltown with a 26-24 win in a match that never had more than a converted try in it.

The lead swapped hands like it owed someone money. Adam Pompey got the Warriors moving inside four minutes, Fonua Pole hit back for the Tigers by the 11th, and from there it was tit for tat all the way to the break, locked up 12-12. Marata Niukore and Starford To'a traded scores either side of half-time, and Luke Metcalf's try in the 41st minute nudged Warriors back in front. Latu Fainu had the Tigers up 22-18 by the 52nd minute, their high-water mark for the day. Leka Halasima settled it in the 69th, and this time nobody answered.

That's where the yardage numbers earn their keep. Warriors ran for 2,051 metres to 1,558, backed it up with 654 post-contact metres to 521, and turned that platform into four line breaks and 42 tackle breaks against three and 37 for the Tigers. Forward dominance was written into the ratings before kick-off, Warriors' pack rated at 1141 to 1110, and their halves edge was even clearer, 1180 to 1067. On the day, that halves gap showed up in exactly the way you'd expect: Metcalf on the scoresheet, and enough go-forward for Halasima to finish it off late.

Wests Tigers were actually the tidier side with ball in hand, just 7 errors to 8 and a completion rate of 80% against the Warriors' 83%, so it wasn't a case of them chucking it away. What hurt them was territory. Wests Tigers led kick metres 692 to 443, real control with the boot, but it doesn't count for much when the other side keeps finding 40 extra tackle busts a game. Missed tackles told the same story, Tigers at 42 to the Warriors' 37, effective tackle rate 85.7% to 87.0%. Small gaps, all pointing the same direction.

Discipline mattered too. Warriors conceded five penalties to the Tigers' eight, which in a two-point finish is the sort of detail that decides which side is defending a lead in the last ten minutes rather than chasing one.

Form lines suggested this would go to the wire either way. Wests Tigers came in scoring 26 a game across their last five with an average margin of plus-2, Warriors at 21.2 points and minus-1.6. The Alphr model had Wests Tigers at 65% to win and predicted a 6.2-point margin off ratings of 1408 to 1474. The final margin was 2 points the other way, so the number itself wasn't far off, the market had just picked the wrong side of it. File this one under the 2-from-16 column and move on.

Wins and losses, this is the ledger doing its job. Warriors' forward and halves edge showed up exactly where the ratings said it might, in metres made and points scored when it mattered late.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 12 | 12 | 24 |
| Warriors | 12 | 14 | 26 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 48% | Possession | **52%** |
| 80% | Completion rate | **83%** |
| 1,558 | Run metres | **2,051** |
| 521 | Post-contact metres | **654** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **4** |
| 37 | Tackle breaks | **42** |
| 9 | Offloads | **11** |
| 85.7% | Effective tackle % | **87.0%** |
| 42 | Missed tackles | **37** |
| **7** | Errors | 8 |
| 8 | Penalties conceded | **5** |
| **692** | Kick metres | 443 |

**Model Report Card**

Warriors defied the model's 65% prediction for Wests Tigers, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 6.2 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The model went 2/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (60 career games). The 50-point combined total was right in line with Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Warriors's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Warriors have a 70% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Warriors prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Adam Pompey (Warriors) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 11' Try — Fonua Pole (Wests Tigers) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 33' Try — Marata Niukore (Warriors) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 38' Try — Starford To'a (Wests Tigers) — 10-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 41' Try — Luke Metcalf (Warriors) — 12-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 49' Try — Solomona Faataape (Wests Tigers) — 16-18 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 52' Try — Latu Fainu (Wests Tigers) — 22-18 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 69' Try — Leka Halasima (Warriors) — 24-22 · win-prob swing -4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wests Tigers to win @ $1.65 (edge +3.0%) — model probability 65.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +14.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wests Tigers by 6 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wests Tigers here: 65% to see off Warriors. The ratings say otherwise: Warriors sit 66 ELO points clear, 1474 to 1408, so the model is backing Wests Tigers against the ratings gap.

On paper Warriors shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The model still sides with Wests Tigers, which says Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency carry the most weight. The margin model has Wests Tigers by 6.2, with the two sides combining for about 40. Wests Tigers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Warriors have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 32-6 in 2026 Round 19.

Wests Tigers have lost 3 straight. Warriors have lost 3 straight. Warriors have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Wests Tigers 5th against Warriors 7th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Wests Tigers 1 · Warriors 9 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 32-6 |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | WLLL · 92 for, 106 against |
| Wests Tigers at home | 5-7 this season |
| Warriors last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 95 against |
| Warriors away | 7-5 this season |
| Ladder | Wests Tigers 5th · Warriors 7th |
| Finals odds | Wests Tigers 0% · Warriors 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Warriors

**Wyatt Raymond** — 60 career games since 2024.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 4W–6L | 40% |
| Warriors | 7W–3L | 70% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Warriors have won 7 of 10 games (70%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 4 from 10 (40%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Wests Tigers get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Warriors's +0.2.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 26.0pts | Avg Score | 21.2pts |
| 24.0pts | Avg Conceded | 22.8pts |
| 2.0pts | Avg Margin | -1.6pts |
| 1669.6m | Run Metres | 1684.0m |
| 5.2 | Line Breaks | 4.4 |
| 310.0 | Tackles | 335.8 |
| 11.2 | Errors | 9.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 3W–2L | 26.0 |
| Warriors | 3W–2L | 21.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warriors lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | Wests Tigers | 6 – 32 | Warriors |
| 2026 | R4 | Warriors | 14 – 32 | Wests Tigers |
| 2025 | R19 | Warriors | 34 – 14 | Wests Tigers |
| 2024 | R21 | Warriors | 28 – 16 | Wests Tigers |
| 2023 | R24 | Wests Tigers | 22 – 30 | Warriors |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wests Tigers' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 6th there (0.67 conceded/game). Key man: Turuva, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 9th-ranked middle attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 2nd there (0.67 conceded/game). Key man: Harris-Tavita, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wests Tigers | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 1/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.33/g (att 9th) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 2/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.33/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.33/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 6th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wests Tigers | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 2 | 4 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 237m/g | 227m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.3/g | 2.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82% | 86.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wests Tigers | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 4 | 6 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 675m/g | 672m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14/g | 18.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.3/g | 2.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.9% | 81.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wests Tigers | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 0 | 1 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 574m/g | 514m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.7/g | 6.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.1% | 89% |

**Who scores on Warriors** — Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.22) +9% · Fullbacks 0.44/g (lg 0.44) +0% · Wingers 1.19/g (lg 1.26) -6%
**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Five-Eighths 0.37/g (lg 0.26) +42% · Fullbacks 0.61/g (lg 0.44) +39% · Props 0.22/g (lg 0.16) +38%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Campbelltown Sports Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·2·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/6g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Sunia Turuva | WG | 5 in 3g | 8/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·3·2) | 2/4g | 0/1g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.72 AI 67% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Starford To'a | CE | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 1/6g | 22% | — | 🏉 38' |
| 6 | Lachlan Galvin | 5/8 | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/5g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Jarome Luai | HB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 1/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/16g | 2/10g | 28% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/10g | 14% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Seyfarth | 2R | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/14g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/21g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 15% | — | — |
| 15 | Royce Hunt | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Bird | CE | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/4g | 20% | — | — |
| 17 | Sione Fainu | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 12% | — | — |

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | FB | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 0/3g | 26% | — | — |
| 2 | Taine Tuaupiki | WG | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 4 | Ali Leiataua | CE | 3 in 3g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·2) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 67% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Adam Pompey | CE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/2g | 12% | — | 🏉 5' |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Luke Metcalf | HB | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/2g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.50 AI 48% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 42' |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Mitchell Barnett | PR | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/7g | 1/2g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.00 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Marata Niukore | 2R | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/0g | 12% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Jackson Ford | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 17 | Leka Halasima | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 70' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Warriors hold the ELO advantage (1474 vs 1408), but the market favours Wests Tigers (@1.65). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wests Tigers 1408 · Warriors 1474 · ELO difference: 66 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Wests Tigers | Warriors | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1110 (best 1349) | 1141 (best 1331) | Warriors +31 |
| Backs | 953 (best 1058) | 976 (best 1150) | Warriors +23 |
| Halves | 1067 (best 1067) | 1180 (best 1180) | Warriors +113 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 1185 | Wests Tigers +15 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warriors |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 65%** — Wests Tigers predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)