Win Probability
AI Game Review
Warriors defied the model's 65% prediction for Wests Tigers, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 6.2 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (46 career games). The 50-point combined total was right in line with Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Warriors's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Warriors have a 63% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 61% career home-team win rate, the away side Warriors prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Wests Tigers
65%
Warriors
35%
AI Match Overview
Wests Tigers are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Warriors. Warriors are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Wests Tigers counter with Referee Tendency which tips the scales. Warriors carry a 66-point ELO rating advantage (1474 vs 1408). The margin model predicts Wests Tigers by 6.2 points with a combined total of 40.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Wests Tigers to Win @1.65
Lost ✗
Edge
+3.0%
Line / Spread
Wests Tigers -3.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+3.0%
Total Points
Under 45.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+14.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Wests Tigers | W W W L L | 26.0 |
Warriors | W W W L L | 21.2 |
Avg Conceded
24.0
Wests Tigers
22.8
Warriors
Avg Margin
2.0
Wests Tigers
-1.6
Warriors
Run Metres
1670
Wests Tigers
1684
Warriors
Line Breaks
5.2
Wests Tigers
4.4
Warriors
Referee Indicator
Favours WarriorsWyatt Raymond
46 career games · since 2024
Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Warriors have won 5 of 8 games (63%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 3 from 8 (38%). Games average 49.9 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
49.9 pts
Home Win %
61%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
9.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Wests Tigers get a +0.8 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Warriors's +0.1.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Warriors hold the ELO advantage (1474 vs 1408), but the market favours Wests Tigers (@1.65).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
65%
Wests Tigers predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 40 · Line: +6.2
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