# Roosters v Titans — NRL Round 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Roosters 12 – 30 Titans

_Titans tower over Roosters._

Half time: 6 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Roosters 61% / Titans 39% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 28 Mar, 06:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Roosters: Mark Nawaqanitawase (10' 1st Tipped ⚡), Dominic Young (48' Tipped ⚡) · Titans: AJ Brimson (17'), Jayden Campbell (61' Tipped ⚡), Phillip Sami (69'), Tino Fa'asuamaleaui (73'), AJ Brimson (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 61% | Lost |
| Titans | 39% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 6.1 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Roosters vs Gold Coast Titans Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 4 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Roosters 12–30 Titans in NRL Round 4 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Roosters lost this one with the tools to win it. They broke the line six times to the Titans' four and busted 43 tackles to 26, numbers that usually point to a home win. Instead they walked away with 12 points and a 30-12 defeat at Allianz Stadium, and the stat that explains why sits right there in black and white: 19 errors to 11.

That completion rate tells the story on its own. Roosters finished at 57%, the Titans at 81%. Against a side kicking for 659 metres compared to the Roosters' 440, that gap in ball control was always going to cost someone. It just took until after half-time for the scoreboard to catch up.

Mark Nawaqanitawase opened the scoring in the 9th minute, Roosters up 4-0. AJ Brimson levelled it to 6-4 by the 17th, and from there it sat locked at 6-6 into the sheds. Dominic Young's try in the 48th minute even had Roosters back in front, 10-8. That was the last time they led all day.

Four unanswered tries followed. Jayden Campbell drew it level at the 61 minute mark, Phillip Sami put the Titans ahead for good at 68, Tino Fa'asuamaleaui stretched it to ten at 72, and Brimson's second in the 78th sealed the final margin at 30-12.

The frustrating bit for Roosters is how good the underlying numbers look. They out carried the Titans for tackle breaks, 43 to 26, and offloads, 14 to 8, and their defence was tidier on paper too, an effective tackle rate of 90.0% against 84.1%. None of it mattered once the Titans started completing sets at 81% while Roosters kept coughing up the footy. You can offload all day, but it counts for little if the other side simply keeps hold of the ball.

The Titans also edged the collision count, 608 post-contact metres to 591, a small margin but one that fits a forward pack that punched above its rating. Going in, the numbers had Roosters well clear across the park: forwards 1141 to 1000, halves 1203 to 1093, hooker 1200 to 858. Alphr's model backed that up too, giving Roosters a 61% win chance and tipping a 6.1-point win. Instead the Titans won by 18, one of the bigger upsets the model has copped this season.

Form lines pointed to something brewing. Over their last five games the Titans were averaging 1642 running metres to the Roosters' 1527.8, and they matched that trend here, 1718 to 1762, close on paper but decisive given how much cleaner they were with the ball in hand. Roosters had scored more on average through the season, 23.2 points a game to 19.6, but none of that helps when you're not holding possession.

Alphr's model got the total about right, projecting 46 against an actual 42, and correctly called the under 50.5. The margin is where it fell over, tipping a Roosters win of just over a converted try in a game the Titans took out by three converted tries. It finished the day 4 from 16 for the round, a reminder that ratings mean nothing once the ball starts bouncing the other way.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Titans | 6 | 24 | 30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Roosters | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| 57% | Completion rate | **81%** |
| **1,762** | Run metres | 1,718 |
| 591 | Post-contact metres | **608** |
| **6** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **43** | Tackle breaks | 26 |
| **14** | Offloads | 8 |
| **90.0%** | Effective tackle % | 84.1% |
| **26** | Missed tackles | 43 |
| 19 | Errors | **11** |
| 8 | Penalties conceded | **5** |
| 440 | Kick metres | **659** |

**Model Report Card**

Titans defied the model's 61% prediction for Roosters, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.1 but the actual margin was 18 points. Total score prediction of 46 was close to the actual 42, within 4 points. The model went 4/16 on this match. The under 50.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Titans bucked the trend, Roosters historically win 63% of games under Grant Atkins, but couldn't convert that edge today. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 9' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 17' Try — AJ Brimson (Titans) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 48' Try — Dominic Young (Roosters) — 10-8 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 61' Try — Jayden Campbell (Titans) — 12-12 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 68' Try — Phillip Sami (Titans) — 12-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 72' Try — Tino Fa'asuamaleaui (Titans) — 12-22 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 78' Try — AJ Brimson (Titans) — 12-28 · win-prob swing -2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.55 (edge -5.6%) — model probability 61.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge -5.6%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +12.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 6 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Roosters are the call at 61%, but Titans stay live at 39%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 76 ELO points clear, 1503 to 1427. Form leans Roosters' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Titans.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Roosters by 6.1, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Roosters, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 28-12 in 2026 Round 10.

Titans have leaked 150 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Roosters 14th against Titans 9th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Roosters 9 · Titans 1 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 28-12 |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWL · 96 for, 66 against |
| Roosters at home | 6-6 this season |
| Titans last 4 | LLLW · 106 for, 150 against |
| Titans away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Roosters 14th · Titans 9th |
| Finals odds | Roosters 100% · Titans 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 37W–22L | 63% |
| Titans | 10W–22L | 31% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Grant Atkins officiates, Roosters have won 37 of 59 games (63%), significantly stronger than Titans's 10 from 32 (31%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Roosters | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 23.2pts | Avg Score | 19.6pts |
| 32.0pts | Avg Conceded | 29.6pts |
| -8.8pts | Avg Margin | -10.0pts |
| 1527.8m | Run Metres | 1642.0m |
| 5.6 | Line Breaks | 3.8 |
| 356.2 | Tackles | 339.0 |
| 10.2 | Errors | 12.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 2W–3L | 23.2 |
| Titans | 1W–4L | 19.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R10 | Roosters | 28 – 12 | Titans |
| 2024 | R25 | Titans | 22 – 48 | Roosters |
| 2023 | R21 | Titans | 18 – 36 | Roosters |
| 2022 | R9 | Roosters | 44 – 16 | Titans |
| 2021 | R26 | Roosters | 25 – 24 | Titans |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Roosters' best path is the middle: NRL's 6th-ranked middle attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 16th there (2.5 conceded/game). Key man: Smith, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Titans' best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 15th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Fermor, 1 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Roosters | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.67/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.67/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 2/g (def 12th) | 1.5/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.5/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 8th) · concedes 2/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.5/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Roosters | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 3 | 1 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 193m/g | 179m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4/g | 4.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.2% | 80.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Roosters | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 12 | 4 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 672m/g | 688m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 21/g | 15/g |
| Line Breaks | 4/g | 2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79% | 82.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Roosters | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 1 | 2 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 481m/g | 514m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10/g | 12.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.4% | 86% |

**Who scores on Titans** — Props 0.4/g (lg 0.16) +150% · Fullbacks 0.78/g (lg 0.45) +73% · 2nd Rows 0.64/g (lg 0.44) +45%
**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.34/g (lg 0.26) +31% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.11) +18% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.22) +14%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 0 in 3g | 7/10g (1·1·0·2·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 13/14g | 20/39g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 2 in 3g | 10/10g (1·1·2·2·0·1·1·0·2·0) | 8/11g | 62/89g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.67 AI 77% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | CE | 1 in 3g | 2/4g (1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 56% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 5 | Dominic Young | WG | 3 in 3g | 8/10g (0·3·1·0·0·1·0·2·1·0) | 7/4g | 15/12g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.63 AI 75% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 48' |
| 6 | Sandon Smith | 5/8 | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 2/12g | 13% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.75 AI 50% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Chad Townsend | HB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/20g | 4/11g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/16g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Zach Dockar-Clay | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/7g | 3% | — | — |
| 10 | Spencer Leniu | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/6g | 7/22g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 9% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 7/35g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.00 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 14 | Hugo Savala | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Blake Steep | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/6g (0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 17% | — | — |
| 16 | Nat Butcher | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 3/25g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Lindsay Collins | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/24g | 8% | — | — |

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaylan De Groot | FB | 0 in 2g | 1/5g (0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 2 | Tony Francis | WG | 0 in 1g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 3 | Brian Kelly | CE | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 0/4g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Phillip Sami | CE | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/1g | 32% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 5 | Jojo Fifita | WG | 2 in 2g | 9/10g (0·0·3·0·2·0·2·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 69% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | AJ Brimson | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (1·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 34% | — | 🏉 17' 79' |
| 7 | Jayden Campbell | HB | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 61' |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Verrills | HK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Reagan Campbell-Gillard | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/16g | 0/7g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Klese Haas | 2R | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| 13 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | LK | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 14 | Chris Randall | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | David Fifita | INT | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| 16 | Iszac Fa'asuamaleaui | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Brock Gray | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Roosters 1503 · Titans 1427 · ELO difference: 76 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Roosters | Titans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1141 (best 1314) | 1000 (best 1248) | Roosters +140 |
| Backs | 1022 (best 1119) | 904 (best 1004) | Roosters +118 |
| Halves | 1203 (best 1203) | 1093 (best 1093) | Roosters +110 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 858 | Roosters +342 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Roosters |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Roosters |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Roosters |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Roosters |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Roosters predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)