Win Probability
AI Game Review
Titans defied the model's 61% prediction for Roosters, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.1 but the actual margin was 18 points. Total score prediction of 46 was close to the actual 42, within 4 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 50.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Titans bucked the trend, Roosters historically win 63% of games under Grant Atkins, but couldn't convert that edge today. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Roosters
61%
Titans
39%
AI Match Overview
Roosters hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Titans are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Roosters ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Roosters carry a 76-point ELO rating advantage (1503 vs 1427). Recent form favours Roosters with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Titans. The margin model predicts Roosters by 6.1 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Roosters to Win @1.55
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.6%
Line / Spread
Roosters -4.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.6%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+12.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Roosters | W W L L L | 23.2 |
Titans | W L L L L | 19.6 |
Avg Conceded
32.0
Roosters
29.6
Titans
Avg Margin
-8.8
Roosters
-10.0
Titans
Run Metres
1528
Roosters
1642
Titans
Line Breaks
5.6
Roosters
3.8
Titans
Referee Indicator
Favours RoostersGrant Atkins
318 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Grant Atkins officiates, Roosters have won 35 of 56 games (63%), significantly stronger than Titans's 10 from 32 (31%).
Avg Total
43.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Roosters predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: +6.1
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