Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 63% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Storm by 7.1 vs the actual margin of 6 points. Total score prediction of 38 was close to the actual 34, within 4 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (295 career games). The combined score of 34 points was 9 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Storm's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Storm have a 68% win rate under this referee. Storm's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Storm
63%
Bulldogs
37%
AI Match Overview
Storm hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Bulldogs are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Storm ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Storm carry a 184-point ELO rating advantage (1731 vs 1547). Recent form favours Storm with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Storm by 7.1 points with a combined total of 38.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.40
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.2%
Line / Spread
Storm -7.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.2%
Total Points
Under 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Storm | W W W W L | 22.0 |
Bulldogs | W W W L L | 24.0 |
Avg Conceded
15.6
Storm
19.2
Bulldogs
Avg Margin
6.4
Storm
4.8
Bulldogs
Run Metres
1706
Storm
1546
Bulldogs
Line Breaks
3.4
Storm
5.8
Bulldogs
Referee Indicator
Favours StormAdam Gee
295 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Adam Gee officiates, Storm have won 30 of 44 games (68%), significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 14 from 28 (50%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Bulldogs get a +1.7 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Storm's +0.0. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Storm predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 38 · Line: +7.1
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