NRL | Round 25

alphr.com.au

MEL
Storm
VS
CBY
Bulldogs
AAMI PARK, MELBOURNE • FRIDAY 22 AUG, 8:00 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Adam Gee officiated this match (287 career games). The combined score of 34 points was 9 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Storm's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend — Storm have a 68% win rate under this referee. Storm's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 63% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Storm by 7.1 vs the actual margin of 6 points. Total score prediction of 38 was close to the actual 34 — within 4 points. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

63%StormFavourite

Storm

63%

Bulldogs

37%

AI Match Overview

Storm hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Bulldogs are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Storm ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Storm carry a 184-point ELO rating advantage (1731 vs 1547). Recent form favours Storm with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Storm by 7.1 points with a combined total of 38.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Storm to Win @1.40

Winner ✓

Edge

-5.2%

Line / Spread

Storm -7.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-5.2%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+5.4%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Storm
WWWWL
22.0
Bulldogs
WWWLL
24.0

Avg Conceded

15.6

Storm

19.2

Bulldogs

Avg Margin

6.4

Storm

4.8

Bulldogs

Run Metres

1706

Storm

1546

Bulldogs

Line Breaks

3.4

Storm

5.8

Bulldogs

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Storm
Adam Gee287 games since 2013

Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

MEL
68%28W 13L
CBY
52%14W 13L

When Adam Gee officiates, Storm have won 28 of 41 games (68%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 14 from 27 (52%). That's a 16‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 42.7 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Storm an additional edge at home.

Avg Total

42.7 pts

Home Win %

57%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Storm lead 4-1
Sep 2025MEL 26 - 18 CBY
Apr 2024MEL 16 - 14 CBY
Mar 2023MEL 12 - 26 CBY
Mar 2022MEL 44 - 0 CBY
Apr 2021MEL 52 - 18 CBY
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

MEL
1731Overall1547
CBY
ELO difference: +184 in favour of Storm

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1117Forwards988
Best: 1358MEL +128Best: 1196
1138Backs941
Best: 1205MEL +197Best: 1050
1218Halves1083
Best: 1218MEL +135Best: 1083
1222Hooker1004
MEL +218

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

MEL
Stat
CBY
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
22.0pts
Avg Score
24.0pts
15.6pts
Avg Conceded
19.2pts
6.4pts
Avg Margin
4.8pts
1705.8m
Run Metres
1545.8m
3.4
Line Breaks
5.8
362.0
Tackles
338.8
10.2
Errors
9.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Storm
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Storm
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Storm
4
Halves Control9.0%
Storm
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Storm
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Storm
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Storm

Model Confidence

63%

Storm predicted to win by 7 points

Predicted total: 38 · Line: +7.1

3/3 match predictions correct
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