AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (287 career games). The combined score of 34 points was 9 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Storm's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend — Storm have a 68% win rate under this referee. Storm's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 63% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Storm by 7.1 vs the actual margin of 6 points. Total score prediction of 38 was close to the actual 34 — within 4 points. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Storm
63%
Bulldogs
37%
AI Match Overview
Storm hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Bulldogs are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Storm ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Storm carry a 184-point ELO rating advantage (1731 vs 1547). Recent form favours Storm with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Storm by 7.1 points with a combined total of 38.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.40
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.2%
Line / Spread
Storm -7.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.2%
Total Points
Under 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Storm | WWWWL | 22.0 |
Bulldogs | WWWLL | 24.0 |
Avg Conceded
15.6
Storm
19.2
Bulldogs
Avg Margin
6.4
Storm
4.8
Bulldogs
Run Metres
1706
Storm
1546
Bulldogs
Line Breaks
3.4
Storm
5.8
Bulldogs
Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Adam Gee officiates, Storm have won 28 of 41 games (68%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 14 from 27 (52%). That's a 16‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 42.7 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Storm an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
42.7 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Storm predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 38 · Line: +7.1
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