Win Probability
AI Game Review
Raiders defied the model's 68% prediction for Panthers, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 3.8 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. Total score prediction of 39 was close to the actual 36, within 3 points. Raiders trailed 10–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 16–20. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 40.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 7 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Raiders bucked the trend, Panthers historically win 66% of games under Grant Atkins, but couldn't convert that edge today. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Panthers
68%
Raiders
32%
AI Match Overview
Panthers are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Raiders. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Raiders carry a 30-point ELO rating advantage (1650 vs 1619). The margin model predicts Panthers by 3.8 points with a combined total of 39.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.70
Lost ✗
Edge
+6.3%
Line / Spread
Panthers -3.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+6.3%
Total Points
Under 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Panthers | W W W W L | 32.4 |
Raiders | W W W W L | 30.4 |
Avg Conceded
14.4
Panthers
17.6
Raiders
Avg Margin
18.0
Panthers
12.8
Raiders
Run Metres
1967
Panthers
1678
Raiders
Line Breaks
6.6
Panthers
6.4
Raiders
Referee Indicator
Favours PanthersGrant Atkins
318 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
Panthers hold a 8-point edge: 25W–13L (66%) vs Raiders's 28W–20L (58%).
Avg Total
43.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Raiders hold the ELO advantage (1650 vs 1619), but the market favours Panthers (@1.70).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
68%
Panthers predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 39 · Line: +3.8
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