# Panthers v Raiders — NRL Round 25 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Panthers 16 – 20 Raiders

_Raiders roar back to ransack Panthers._

Half time: 10 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Panthers 68% / Raiders 32% · Glen Willow Oval, Mudgee · Fri, 22 Aug, 06:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Panthers: Casey McLean (14' 1st Tipped 🎯), Casey McLean (32' 1st Tipped 🎯), Liam Martin (43') · Raiders: Joseph Tapine (30'), Simi Sasagi (57'), Ethan Strange (75' Tipped ⚡), Kaeo Weekes (83' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 68% | Lost |
| Raiders | 32% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.8 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Penrith Panthers vs Canberra Raiders Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 25 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Panthers 16–20 Raiders in NRL Round 25 at Glen Willow Oval, Mudgee. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fourteen offloads to four. That's the number that decided it, and it's how the Raiders turned a 10-6 half-time deficit into a 20-16 win at Glen Willow Oval.

Panthers led at the break and led again through most of the second half, but the Raiders kept the ball alive in contact when it mattered and the Panthers simply couldn't. Fourteen offloads against four isn't a marginal edge, it's a different game plan working. Pair it with 46 tackle breaks to 33 and 728 post-contact metres to 607, and you've got a forward effort that dragged the Raiders back into it phase by phase.

The scoreboard tells the story in bursts. Casey McLean opened it in the 14th minute, then McLean again in the 32nd after Joseph Tapine had hit back for the Raiders, and Liam Martin's try in the 42nd made it 14-6. That looked like the Panthers pulling clear. Instead the Raiders scored three of the last four tries of the match: Simi Sasagi in the 57th, Ethan Strange levelling it at 16-16 in the 74th, and Kaeo Weekes snatching the lead with seven minutes left on the clock. Three tries in the final half hour against none from the home side is as clean a description of a comeback as you'll find.

Possession went the Raiders' way too, 53% to 47%, and they used it better. Completion rate was close, 85% to 84%, but the Panthers coughed the ball up 12 times to the Raiders' 8, and that gap in discipline with ball in hand shows up again in the five line breaks the Raiders scored to the Panthers' two. Run metres, 2,038 to 1,781, back up the territory story, though the Panthers did control the air, out-kicking the Raiders 906 metres to 782. Didn't matter much when the guys defending the tryline missed 46 tackles to the Raiders' 33.

That defensive gap is the story of the Raiders' hooker spot too. Going in, the Raiders held a big edge there, 1,167 to 892, and an effective tackle rate of 91.6% against the Panthers' 86.0% suggests that edge showed up all over the park, not just in one position. The Panthers were rated stronger up front and clearly stronger in the backs pre-match, 1,147 to 839, but none of that counted for much once the ball started slipping through hands in contact.

Form lines had these two roughly level, four wins apiece in the last five, and the model gave the Panthers a 68% chance with an expected margin of 3.8. The Raiders won by four. Wrong side, right ballpark on the margin, and the model's call on the total, 39 points projected against 36 delivered, wasn't far off either. Call it 5 from 16 on the day, proof this competition doesn't hand out certainties.

Panthers will look at 12 errors and 46 missed tackles and know exactly where the afternoon got away from them. The Raiders just kept offloading until the door opened.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 10 | 6 | 16 |
| Raiders | 6 | 14 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Panthers | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 47% | Possession | **53%** |
| 84% | Completion rate | **85%** |
| 1,781 | Run metres | **2,038** |
| 607 | Post-contact metres | **728** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 33 | Tackle breaks | **46** |
| 4 | Offloads | **14** |
| 86.0% | Effective tackle % | **91.6%** |
| 46 | Missed tackles | **33** |
| 12 | Errors | **8** |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **5** |
| **906** | Kick metres | 782 |

**Model Report Card**

Raiders defied the model's 68% prediction for Panthers, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 3.8 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. Total score prediction of 39 was close to the actual 36, within 3 points. Raiders trailed 10–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 16–20. The model went 5/16 on this match. The under 40.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 7 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Raiders bucked the trend, Panthers historically win 68% of games under Grant Atkins, but couldn't convert that edge today. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 14' Try — Casey McLean (Panthers) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 29' Try — Joseph Tapine (Raiders) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 32' Try — Casey McLean (Panthers) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 42' Try — Liam Martin (Panthers) — 14-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 57' Try — Simi Sasagi (Raiders) — 16-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 74' Try — Ethan Strange (Raiders) — 16-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 83' Try — Kaeo Weekes (Raiders) — 16-20 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.70 (edge +6.3%) — model probability 67.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +6.3%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 40.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 4 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Panthers here: 68% to see off Raiders. The ratings say otherwise: Raiders sit 30 ELO points clear, 1650 to 1619, so the model is backing Panthers against the ratings gap.

Panthers own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Panthers by 3.8, with the two sides combining for about 39. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Panthers to win, not to win big.

Panthers have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Panthers took the most recent meeting 42-18 in 2026 Round 22.

Panthers have put up 124 points in four games. Raiders have lost 3 straight; Raiders have leaked 133 in their last four. Raiders have won 6 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Panthers 5th against Raiders 1st.

Raiders come in fresher, 13 days between games against 7.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Panthers 7 · Raiders 3 |
| Last meeting | Panthers 42-18 |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 124 for, 70 against |
| Panthers at home | 6-6 this season |
| Raiders last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 133 against |
| Raiders away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Panthers 5th · Raiders 1st |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Rest gap | Panthers 7d · Raiders 13d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Panthers

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 27W–13L | 68% |
| Raiders | 28W–20L | 58% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Panthers hold a 10-point edge: 27W–13L (68%) vs Raiders's 28W–20L (58%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Panthers get a +0.8 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Raiders's -0.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Panthers | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 32.4pts | Avg Score | 30.4pts |
| 14.4pts | Avg Conceded | 17.6pts |
| 18.0pts | Avg Margin | 12.8pts |
| 1967.4m | Run Metres | 1678.4m |
| 6.6 | Line Breaks | 6.4 |
| 388.8 | Tackles | 339.0 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 4W–1L | 32.4 |
| Raiders | 4W–1L | 30.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Panthers | 42 – 18 | Raiders |
| 2026 | R10 | Raiders | 18 – 30 | Panthers |
| 2024 | R25 | Raiders | 22 – 18 | Panthers |
| 2023 | R5 | Raiders | 12 – 53 | Panthers |
| 2022 | R21 | Raiders | 6 – 26 | Panthers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Panthers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.43 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 15th there (1.57 conceded/game). Key man: McLean, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Raiders' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.52 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 11th there (1.24 conceded/game). Key man: Savage, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Panthers | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.43/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.24/g (def 11th) | 1.52/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.57/g (def 15th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.71/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.05/g (def 4th (strong)) | 2.05/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.95/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.05/g (def 8th) | 1.24/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.81/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Panthers | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 9 | 17 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 211m/g | 163m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 5.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.1% | 87.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Panthers | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 52 · 41 | 49 · 46 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 801m/g | 678m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.4/g | 18.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.4/g | 3.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.3% | 78% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Panthers | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 14 | 28 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 504m/g | 597m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.4/g | 9.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 92.1% |

**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.26/g (lg 0.16) +63% · Centres 0.91/g (lg 0.69) +32% · Five-Eighths 0.29/g (lg 0.26) +12%
**Who scores on Panthers** — Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · 2nd Rows 0.41/g (lg 0.44) -7% · Fullbacks 0.39/g (lg 0.42) -7%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Glen Willow Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 6 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 12 in 19g | 9/10g (1·3·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 49% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.93 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Izack Tago | CE | 7 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Casey McLean | CE | 12 in 20g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·1·1·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 53% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 14' 32' |
| 5 | Brian To'o | WG | 5 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | 5/8 | 6 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | HB | 4 in 17g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 5/11g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Mitch Kenny | HK | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | PR | 3 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Luke Garner | 2R | 5 in 18g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Martin | 2R | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 13 | Isaiah Papali'i | LK | 4 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/13g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 14 | Bradley Schneider | INT | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Liam Henry | INT | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Scott Sorensen | INT | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 8 in 21g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·3·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.30 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 83' |
| 2 | Jed Stuart | WG | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 3 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 10 in 21g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·2·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 8 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 12 in 20g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 2/2g | 0/1g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 11 in 21g | 8/10g (0·1·2·0·1·0·1·0·0·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 75' |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Papalii | PR | 3 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/22g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 4 in 20g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 0/2g | 12% | — | 🏉 30' |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 10 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/1g | 36% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 5 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Corey Horsburgh | LK | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | INT | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 15 | Simi Sasagi | INT | 5 in 20g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 16 | Morgan Smithies | INT | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Raiders hold the ELO advantage (1650 vs 1619), but the market favours Panthers (@1.70). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Panthers 1619 · Raiders 1650 · ELO difference: 30 in favour of Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Panthers | Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1137 (best 1254) | 1053 (best 1241) | Panthers +83 |
| Backs | 1147 (best 1238) | 839 (best 986) | Panthers +308 |
| Halves | 1225 (best 1225) | 1245 (best 1245) | Raiders +19 |
| Hooker | 892 | 1167 | Raiders +275 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Raiders |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Panthers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Panthers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Panthers predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)