NRL | Round 25

alphr.com.au

GLD
Titans
VS
NZL
Warriors
CBUS SUPER STADIUM, GOLD COAST • SATURDAY 23 AUG, 5:30 PM

AI Game Review

Warriors defied the model's 51% prediction for Titans — a notable result. The margin model missed here — predicting 0.1 but the actual margin was 14 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 50 — within 5 points. A tough result for the model — all 3 picks missed on this one.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

51%TitansFavourite

Titans

51%

Warriors

49%

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Titans a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Warriors carry a 228-point ELO rating advantage (1484 vs 1256). Recent form favours Warriors with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Titans.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

3 ACTIVE EDGES

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Titans to Win @2.25

Lost ✗

Edge

+5.4%

Line / Spread

Titans +3.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+5.4%

Total Points

Under 47.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+6.6%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Titans
WLLLL
22.0
Warriors
WWLLL
16.4

Avg Conceded

28.2

Titans

20.2

Warriors

Avg Margin

-6.2

Titans

-3.8

Warriors

Run Metres

1706

Titans

1615

Warriors

Line Breaks

4.8

Titans

2.6

Warriors

H2H History (Last 5)Titans lead 4-1
Aug 2025GLD 24 - 16 NZL
Jun 2024GLD 66 - 6 NZL
Apr 2024GLD 27 - 24 NZL
Aug 2023GLD 18 - 28 NZL
Sep 2022GLD 27 - 26 NZL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

GLD
1256Overall1484
NZL
ELO difference: -228 in favour of Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1093Forwards981
Best: 1264GLD +112Best: 1228
1072Backs967
Best: 1182GLD +106Best: 1099
1218Halves1124
Best: 1218GLD +95Best: 1124
1154Hooker1009
GLD +145

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

GLD
Stat
NZL
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
22.0pts
Avg Score
16.4pts
28.2pts
Avg Conceded
20.2pts
-6.2pts
Avg Margin
-3.8pts
1706.4m
Run Metres
1615.4m
4.8
Line Breaks
2.6
352.2
Tackles
354.4
9.8
Errors
9.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Titans
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Titans
4
Halves Control9.0%
Titans
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Warriors
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Warriors

Model Confidence

51%

Titans predicted to win by 0 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: +0.1

0/3 match predictions correct
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