# Titans v Warriors — NRL Round 25 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Titans 18 – 32 Warriors

_Warriors go to war with Titans._

Half time: 6 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Titans 51% / Warriors 49% · Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast · Sat, 23 Aug, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Titans: Tino Fa'asuamaleaui (3' 1st), Beau Fermor (74'), Brian Kelly (76') · Warriors: Marata Niukore (6'), Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (16' Tipped ⚡), Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (20' Tipped ⚡), Adam Pompey (59' Tipped ⚡), Eddie Ieremia-Toeava (64')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 51% | Lost |
| Warriors | 49% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.1 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast Titans vs New Zealand Warriors Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 25 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Titans 18–32 Warriors in NRL Round 25 at Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Tino Fa'asuamaleaui had the Titans in front inside three minutes, and on the discipline sheet they even finished the day looking tidy, four penalties conceded to the Warriors' seven. Trouble is, discipline wasn't the problem. Everything else was.

The Titans lost the ball 15 times to the Warriors' 7, and completed at just 70% against 85%. That's not a small gap, that's a side handing back sets it never needed to concede. Add 33 missed tackles to a defence that was already chasing the game, and the Warriors didn't need to manufacture much. They just waited for the door to open.

Final score: Warriors 32, Titans 18, and the half-time count of 18-6 tells you where the damage was done. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck crossed twice inside a seven-minute stretch either side of the quarter mark, Marata Niukore had already opened the Warriors' account minutes earlier, and by the 20th the margin was ten. The Titans spent the rest of the match playing catch-up against a side that had banked its points early and wasn't in a hurry to give them back.

To their credit, the Titans didn't fold. Beau Fermor and Brian Kelly both crossed late, at 73 and 76 minutes, turning a laugher into something that at least looked respectable on the final ledger. But two tries in the last seven minutes against a 26-point buffer is closing the gap on the scoreboard, not the game itself.

The Warriors won this in the areas that don't always make the highlights. They ran for 1,737 metres to the Titans' 1,372, picked up 620 post-contact metres to 509, and offloaded 13 times to 9, all the hallmarks of a forward pack getting quick ball and backs with room to move. They also had 54% of possession and kicked for 626 metres against 494, which meant the Titans spent large stretches defending their own end without the ball to do anything about it.

Pre-match, the ratings had this one as a genuine coin toss, Titans given a wafer-thin 0.1-point edge and the model leaning 51% their way, built partly on a halves rating of 1218 to 1124 and a hooker edge of 1154 to 1009. On paper the Titans looked equipped to control the middle of the field. On the day, none of that showed up where it mattered, the Warriors' habits, just 9.4 errors and 354.4 tackles a game over their last five, translated straight onto the sheet, while the Titans' leaky recent form, conceding 28.2 points a game before kick-off, turned up again in the only column that counts.

The total of 45 predicted beforehand landed close enough, with 50 points on the board. The margin was where the model came unstuck, tipping a one-point game and getting handed a 14-point loss for its trouble. Two from sixteen on this one. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 6 | 12 | 18 |
| Warriors | 18 | 14 | 32 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Titans | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 46% | Possession | **54%** |
| 70% | Completion rate | **85%** |
| 1,372 | Run metres | **1,737** |
| 509 | Post-contact metres | **620** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **4** |
| 31 | Tackle breaks | **33** |
| 9 | Offloads | **13** |
| **86.8%** | Effective tackle % | 86.0% |
| 33 | Missed tackles | **31** |
| 15 | Errors | **7** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| 494 | Kick metres | **626** |

**Model Report Card**

Warriors defied the model's 51% prediction for Titans, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.1 but the actual margin was 14 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 50, within 5 points. The model went 2/16 on this match.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Tino Fa'asuamaleaui (Titans) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 6' Try — Marata Niukore (Warriors) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 16' Try — Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (Warriors) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 20' Try — Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (Warriors) — 6-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 58' Try — Adam Pompey (Warriors) — 6-24 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 63' Try — Eddie Ieremia-Toeava (Warriors) — 6-30 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 73' Try — Beau Fermor (Titans) — 10-32 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 76' Try — Brian Kelly (Titans) — 16-32 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Titans to win @ $2.25 (edge +5.4%) — model probability 50.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.4%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +6.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Titans by 0 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Titans and Warriors. The model can't split them, landing on Titans at 51%. The ratings say otherwise: Warriors sit 228 ELO points clear, 1484 to 1256, so the model is backing Titans against the ratings gap. Form leans Warriors' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Titans.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Titans have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 42-6 in 2026 Round 22.

Titans have leaked 150 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 at home this year. Warriors have lost 3 straight. Warriors have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Titans 17th against Warriors 4th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Titans 6 · Warriors 4 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 42-6 |
| Titans last 4 | LLLW · 106 for, 150 against |
| Titans at home | 3-9 this season |
| Warriors last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 95 against |
| Warriors away | 7-5 this season |
| Ladder | Titans 17th · Warriors 4th |
| Finals odds | Titans 0% · Warriors 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Titans | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 22.0pts | Avg Score | 16.4pts |
| 28.2pts | Avg Conceded | 20.2pts |
| -6.2pts | Avg Margin | -3.8pts |
| 1706.4m | Run Metres | 1615.4m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 2.6 |
| 352.2 | Tackles | 354.4 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 9.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 1W–4L | 22.0 |
| Warriors | 2W–3L | 16.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Titans lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Titans | 6 – 42 | Warriors |
| 2026 | R7 | Warriors | 28 – 20 | Titans |
| 2025 | R21 | Warriors | 16 – 24 | Titans |
| 2024 | R16 | Titans | 66 – 6 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R8 | Warriors | 24 – 27 | Titans |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Titans' best path is the left edge: NRL's 8th-ranked left edge attack (1.29 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 15th there (1.57 conceded/game). Key man: Sami, 14 tries in that channel this season.
- Warriors' best path is the right edge: NRL's 14th-ranked right edge attack (0.95 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 17th there (1.71 conceded/game). Key man: Pompey, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Titans | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.29/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.43/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.19/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.57/g (def 15th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.14/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.86/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.48/g (att 9th) · concedes 1/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.24/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.71/g (def 17th (weak)) | 0.95/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 0.9/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Titans | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 14 | 18 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 189m/g | 192m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.9/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85% | 87.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Titans | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 48 · 66 | 36 · 52 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 690m/g | 662m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.4/g | 12.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.3/g | 2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.2% | 81.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Titans | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 11th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 17 | 12 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 553m/g | 529m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.4/g | 8.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.9% | 89.5% |

**Who scores on Warriors** — Centres 0.69/g (lg 0.69) +0% · Wingers 1.22/g (lg 1.25) -2% · Fullbacks 0.4/g (lg 0.43) -7%
**Who scores on Titans** — Props 0.32/g (lg 0.17) +88% · Fullbacks 0.7/g (lg 0.43) +63% · 2nd Rows 0.64/g (lg 0.44) +45%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Cbus Super Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AJ Brimson | FB | 9 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 26/62g | 30% | — | — |
| 2 | Jaylan De Groot | WG | 4 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 23% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Brian Kelly | CE | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/12g | 19/66g | 18% | — | 🏉 76' |
| 4 | Jojo Fifita | CE | 11 in 15g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·1·2·0·2·0·0) | 2/3g | 11/26g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Phillip Sami | WG | 15 in 20g | 9/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·1·2·2·1) | 5/8g | 33/63g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.92 AI 69% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Kieran Foran | 5/8 | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/19g | 9/34g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Jayden Campbell | HB | 5 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/6g | 16/34g | 30% | — | — |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | PR | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 2/71g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Verrills | HK | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/5g | 3/25g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Reagan Campbell-Gillard | PR | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 0/18g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Chris Randall | 2R | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 5/31g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 8 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 4/7g | 12/42g | 30% | — | 🏉 74' |
| 13 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | LK | 2 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 6/35g | 16% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 14 | Keano Kini | INT | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 5/14g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Klese Haas | INT | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/29g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Iszac Fa'asuamaleaui | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/18g | 3% | — | — |
| 17 | Josh Patston | INT | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 20% | — | — |

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | FB | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/6g | 18% | — | — |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 5/14g | 3/8g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.68 AI 51% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Adam Pompey | CE | 9 in 21g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·2) | 2/5g | 1/4g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 59' |
| 4 | Rocco Berry | CE | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/3g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | WG | 9 in 15g | 6/10g (2·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 8/15g | 3/6g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 52% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' 20' |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 8 in 20g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 0/8g | 0/6g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.10 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Tanah Boyd | HB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/34g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 1/7g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 2 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 11 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 2/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Marata Niukore | 2R | 3 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/8g | 10% | — | 🏉 6' |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/44g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Te Maire Martin | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Eddie Ieremia-Toeava | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 64' |
| 16 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Leka Halasima | INT | 10 in 21g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 49% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.75 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $36.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Titans 1256 · Warriors 1484 · ELO difference: 228 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Titans | Warriors | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1093 (best 1264) | 981 (best 1228) | Titans +112 |
| Backs | 1072 (best 1182) | 967 (best 1099) | Titans +106 |
| Halves | 1218 (best 1218) | 1124 (best 1124) | Titans +95 |
| Hooker | 1154 | 1009 | Titans +145 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Titans |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Titans |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Titans |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Titans favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)