AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (99 career games). The combined score of 58 points was 12 points above Todd Smith's career average of 46. Broncos's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend — Broncos have a 54% win rate under this referee. Despite Todd Smith's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Broncos prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Broncos to win at 63% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 7.0 but the actual margin was 34 points. Broncos led 6–14 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 34. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Knights
37%
Broncos
63%
AI Match Overview
Broncos hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Knights are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Broncos ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Broncos carry a 238-point ELO rating advantage (1535 vs 1297). Recent form favours Broncos with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Knights. The margin model predicts Broncos by 7.0 points with a combined total of 50.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Broncos to Win @1.36
Winner ✓
Edge
-16.4%
Line / Spread
Broncos +9.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-16.4%
Total Points
Over 46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+7.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Knights | LLLLL | 12.6 |
Broncos | WWWLL | 29.2 |
Avg Conceded
36.4
Knights
20.0
Broncos
Avg Margin
-23.8
Knights
9.2
Broncos
Run Metres
1498
Knights
1694
Broncos
Line Breaks
3.8
Knights
4.6
Broncos
Each team's win rate when Todd Smith refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Todd Smith officiates, Broncos have won 7 of 13 games (54%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Knights's 1 from 6 (17%). That's a 37‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 45.8 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Knights an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 6 games for Knights — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
45.8 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Broncos predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 50 · Line: -7.0
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