# Knights v Broncos — NRL Round 25 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Knights 12 – 46 Broncos

_Broncos run riot over Knights._

Half time: 6 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Knights 37% / Broncos 63% · McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle · Sun, 24 Aug, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Knights: Leo Thompson (33'), Bradman Best (54') · Broncos: Kotoni Staggs (3' 1st Tipped 🎯), Josiah Karapani (8' Tipped ⚡), Kobe Hetherington (27'), Deine Mariner (44' Tipped ⚡), Payne Haas (59'), Reece Walsh (66' Tipped ⚡), Gehamat Shibasaki (69'), Deine Mariner (74' Tipped ⚡), Jordan Riki (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 63% | Won |
| Knights | 37% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.0 predicted → 34 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Newcastle Knights vs Brisbane Broncos Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 25 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Knights 12–46 Broncos in NRL Round 25 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Knights won two numbers on the stat sheet that usually decide these things. They out-offloaded Brisbane 14 to 8, and their effective tackle percentage, 84.1 to 81.1, actually edged the Broncos too. On another night that combination might have kept the scoreboard honest. It didn't here.

Where it fell over was completion and territory. Newcastle finished at 65% with 14 errors, Brisbane at 78% with just 10, and the Broncos won the kick-metres battle 602 to 408. Possession went the visitors' way as well, 53% to 47%, and once they had the ball they did far more with it: 14 line breaks to the Knights' 5, and 55 tackle busts to 40. Those are the numbers of a team that had space whenever it wanted it, not one grinding out a win.

Defensively, the Knights were the story of the night for the wrong reasons. Fifty-five missed tackles is a heavy concession against a Brisbane backline that came in rated 1071 to Newcastle's 929, and the Broncos' edges cashed in repeatedly. Kotoni Staggs opened the scoring inside two minutes, Josiah Karapani made it 0-8 at the seven-minute mark, and Kobe Hetherington had it at 0-12 by the 26th. Leo Thompson finally got the Knights on the board in the 32nd minute, a genuine highlight, and it was 6-14 at half-time, competitive on the sheet if nothing else.

That's as close as it got. Deine Mariner crossed four minutes after the break to push it to 6-18, and although Bradman Best answered in the 54th minute to make it 10-20, Brisbane simply kept scoring. Payne Haas went over in the 59th, Reece Walsh in the 66th, Gehamat Shibasaki in the 68th, Mariner's second in the 73rd and Jordan Riki in the 76th. Five tries in 22 minutes turned a manageable margin into a 46-12 rout. Shibasaki was sin-binned in the final minute, by which point it was a formality.

None of this should have surprised anyone who'd followed either side's form. The Knights arrived off zero wins from their last five, conceding an average of 36.4 points a game, and this result sat right in that pattern. The Broncos had three wins from five in the same stretch, averaging 29.2 points scored and conceding just 20, and their hooker rating (1144, admittedly higher than Brisbane's 987 in this case) and backs rating (1071 to 929) both showed up directly in the way this game was played.

Alphr's model had Brisbane at 63% to win, and that call landed. The margin was a different story: the model tipped a 7-point win on a combined total of 50, and got neither the gap (34 points, not 7) nor quite the spread of scoring right, though the total did climb past the 46.5-point line as predicted. Brisbane covered the 9.5-point handicap comfortably.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knights | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Broncos | 14 | 32 | 46 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Knights | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 47% | Possession | **53%** |
| 65% | Completion rate | **78%** |
| 1,432 | Run metres | **1,910** |
| 472 | Post-contact metres | **498** |
| 5 | Line breaks | **14** |
| 40 | Tackle breaks | **55** |
| **14** | Offloads | 8 |
| **84.1%** | Effective tackle % | 81.1% |
| 55 | Missed tackles | **40** |
| 14 | Errors | **10** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| 408 | Kick metres | **602** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Broncos to win at 63% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.0 but the actual margin was 34 points. Broncos led 6–14 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 34. The model went 8/16 on this match. Broncos covered the 9.5-point line. The over 46.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (121 career games). The combined score of 58 points was 11 points above Todd Smith's career average of 47. Broncos's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Broncos have a 59% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Kotoni Staggs (Broncos) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 7' Try — Josiah Karapani (Broncos) — 0-8 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 26' Try — Kobe Hetherington (Broncos) — 0-12 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 32' Try — Leo Thompson (Knights) — 4-14 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 44' Try — Deine Mariner (Broncos) — 6-18 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 54' Try — Bradman Best (Knights) — 10-20 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 59' Try — Payne Haas (Broncos) — 12-24 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 66' Try — Reece Walsh (Broncos) — 12-30 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 68' Try — Gehamat Shibasaki (Broncos) — 12-36 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 73' Try — Deine Mariner (Broncos) — 12-40 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 76' Try — Jordan Riki (Broncos) — 12-44 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 80' Sin Bin — Gehamat Shibasaki (Broncos) — 12-44 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.36 (edge -16.4%) — model probability 63.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos +9.5 @ $1.91 (edge -16.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +7.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 7 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Broncos are the call at 63%, but Knights stay live at 37%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Broncos sit 238 ELO points clear, 1535 to 1297. Form leans Broncos' way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Knights.

Broncos own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Broncos by 7.0, with the two sides combining for about 50. Lean Broncos, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Broncos have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 30-6 in 2026 Round 22.

Knights have lost 9 straight; Knights have leaked 190 in their last four; Knights are 2-10 at home this year. Broncos have won 7 straight. Broncos have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Knights 16th against Broncos 6th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Knights 4 · Broncos 6 |
| Last meeting | Knights 30-6 |
| Knights last 4 | LLLL · 42 for, 190 against |
| Knights at home | 2-10 this season |
| Broncos last 4 | WWWW · 101 for, 78 against |
| Broncos away | 8-6 this season |
| Ladder | Knights 16th · Broncos 6th |
| Finals odds | Knights 0% · Broncos 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Broncos

**Todd Smith** — 121 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 2W–6L | 25% |
| Broncos | 10W–7L | 59% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Todd Smith officiates, Broncos have won 10 of 17 games (59%), significantly stronger than Knights's 2 from 8 (25%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Knights get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Broncos's -0.2.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Knights | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 12.6pts | Avg Score | 29.2pts |
| 36.4pts | Avg Conceded | 20.0pts |
| -23.8pts | Avg Margin | 9.2pts |
| 1498.2m | Run Metres | 1693.8m |
| 3.8 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 383.6 | Tackles | 327.4 |
| 13.0 | Errors | 12.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 0W–5L | 12.6 |
| Broncos | 3W–2L | 29.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Broncos lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Broncos | 6 – 30 | Knights |
| 2024 | R20 | Knights | 14 – 30 | Broncos |
| 2023 | R15 | Broncos | 24 – 20 | Knights |
| 2022 | R22 | Broncos | 28 – 10 | Knights |
| 2022 | R11 | Knights | 12 – 36 | Broncos |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 16th-ranked left edge attack (0.86 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 11th there (1.19 conceded/game). Key man: Best, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Broncos' best path is the middle: NRL's 6th-ranked middle attack (1.81 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 14th there (1.9 conceded/game). Key man: Walsh, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Knights | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.86/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.43/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.19/g (def 11th) |
| Middle | 0.95/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.9/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.81/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.43/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 0.71/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.05/g (def 10th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Knights | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 11 | 16 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 191m/g | 123m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.9/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.9% | 87.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Knights | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 30 · 41 | 59 · 50 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 780m/g | 682m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 22.6/g | 18.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75% | 79.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Knights | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 16 | 8 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 513m/g | 589m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.2/g | 11.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.1% | 91.6% |

**Who scores on Broncos** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Centres 0.74/g (lg 0.69) +7% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7%
**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.21) +5% · Fullbacks 0.43/g (lg 0.42) +2% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.17) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at McDonald Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Votano | Replacement | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 10 in 16g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 5/6g | 26/29g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.84 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | FB | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/20g | 26/107g | 16% | — | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 19/44g | 30% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 6 | Jake Arthur | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 7 | Jack Cogger | HB | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/29g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 4/77g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 6/53g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Leo Thompson | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/40g | 2% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 11 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/8g | 17% | — | — |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/20g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Tyson Frizell | LK | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 10/53g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Brailey | INT | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 3/41g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Mat Croker | INT | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 4/42g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Thomas Cant | INT | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/18g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Elijah Salesa-Leaumoana | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 8 in 15g | 7/10g (1·1·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.91 AI 59% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 66' |
| 2 | Josiah Karapani | WG | 7 in 7g | 7/10g (0·0·0·2·2·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.74 AI 58% ✓ Scored | 🏉 8' |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 8 in 18g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·2) | 1/5g | 1/3g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 63% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | 12 in 20g | 7/10g (1·0·2·2·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/9g | 36% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 5 | Deine Mariner | WG | 6 in 14g | 6/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 2/1g | 2/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.90 AI 57% ✓ Scored | 🏉 44' 74' |
| 6 | Billy Walters | 5/8 | 6 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/3g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Ben Hunt | HB | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/21g | 2/11g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Jensen | PR | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Cory Paix | HK | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 6% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 11 | Jaiyden Hunt | 2R | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/2g | 8% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 13 | Patrick Carrigan | LK | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Tyson Smoothy | INT | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Kobe Hetherington | INT | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 6% | — | 🏉 27' |
| 16 | Ben Talty | INT | 3 in 5g | 3/5g (0·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.00 AI 59% ✗ No try | — |
| 17 | Jesse Arthars | INT | 11 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 30% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Knights 1297 · Broncos 1535 · ELO difference: 238 in favour of Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Knights | Broncos | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1054 (best 1212) | 1015 (best 1264) | Knights +39 |
| Backs | 929 (best 1087) | 1071 (best 1217) | Broncos +142 |
| Halves | 1121 (best 1121) | 1148 (best 1148) | Broncos +27 |
| Hooker | 1144 | 987 | Knights +156 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Broncos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Knights |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Broncos |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Broncos |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — Broncos predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)