Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Rabbitohs to win at 56% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.5 but the actual margin was 40 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 40, within 3 points. Rabbitohs led 16–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 40. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (367 career games). The 40-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Rabbitohs's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Rabbitohs have a 58% win rate under this referee. Rabbitohs's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee. 61% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Rabbitohs
56%
Dragons
44%
AI Match Overview
Rabbitohs hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Dragons are far from out of this at 44%. The model sees Rabbitohs ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Referee Tendency. Dragons carry a 76-point ELO rating advantage (1403 vs 1327). The margin model predicts Rabbitohs by 2.5 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Rabbitohs to Win @2.25
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.0%
Line / Spread
Rabbitohs +2.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.0%
Total Points
Over 39.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.9%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | W W L L L | 15.2 |
Dragons | W W L L L | 20.0 |
Avg Conceded
27.6
Rabbitohs
19.6
Dragons
Avg Margin
-12.4
Rabbitohs
0.4
Dragons
Run Metres
1423
Rabbitohs
1671
Dragons
Line Breaks
4.4
Rabbitohs
4.6
Dragons
Referee Indicator
Favours RabbitohsGerard Sutton
367 career games · since 2011
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Gerard Sutton officiates, Rabbitohs have won 33 of 57 games (58%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 11 from 34 (32%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.0 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
Rabbitohs predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +2.5
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