# Rabbitohs v Dragons — NRL Round 25 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Rabbitohs 40 – 0 Dragons

_Rabbitohs put Dragons to the sword._

Half time: 16 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Rabbitohs 56% / Dragons 44% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Thu, 21 Aug, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Rabbitohs: Jacob Host (17' 1st), Jye Gray (27'), Alex Johnston (38' Tipped ⚡), Tallis Duncan (46' Tipped ⚡), Peter Mamouzelos (65'), Thomas Fletcher (71'), Tyrone Munro (76' Tipped ⚡) · Dragons: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 56% | Won |
| Dragons | 44% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.5 predicted → 40 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**South Sydney Rabbitohs vs St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 25 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Rabbitohs 40–0 Dragons in NRL Round 25 at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sixteen unanswered points before the break tells you most of what you need to know, but it was the stretch from the 16th to the 37th minute that actually broke this game open. Jacob Host got the Rabbitohs moving in the 16th, Jye Gray followed in the 26th, and Alex Johnston crossed right on the stroke of half-time to make it 16-0. From there the Dragons were playing catch-up against a side that never let them within reach.

Final score: Rabbitohs 40, Dragons 0. Not a contest so much as a demonstration.

The second half was just more of the same, delivered at intervals. Tallis Duncan extended it to 20-0 early, then Peter Mamouzelos, Thomas Fletcher and Tyrone Munro all crossed between the 64th and 75th minutes to turn a comfortable lead into a rout. Seven different try scorers for the Rabbitohs, and Dragons never got a look at the board.

The stat sheet explains why it never felt close. Rabbitohs ran 2,205 metres to the Dragons' 1,568, broke the line six times to one, and busted 25 tackles to 13. That's not a team grinding out field position, that's a team going through defenders at will. Completion rate tells the same story from the other side of the ball: Rabbitohs finished at 95%, Dragons limped home at 76% with 12 errors to the Rabbitohs' five. You can't build pressure when you're handing the ball back that often.

Defensively the gap was just as stark. Dragons missed 25 tackles to the Rabbitohs' 13, which lines up neatly with six line breaks conceded. Effective tackle percentage was almost identical on paper, 93.5 to 93.3, which just shows how misleading a single number can be when the raw count of misses tells the real story.

Pre-match, the ratings actually had Dragons narrowly favoured on paper, 1403 to 1327, with the model still giving Rabbitohs a 56% chance to win outright. That's the sort of gap that shows up when you look at the halves and hooker numbers, where Dragons rated well clear, 1314 to 1095 and 1200 to 791. None of that showed up on the field. Instead it was the Rabbitohs' edges in forwards and backs, modest as they were on the ratings sheet, that translated into real yardage and real line breaks.

Form coming in had Dragons the more consistent side, with a positive average margin of plus-0.4 against the Rabbitohs' minus-12.4 across their last five. Whatever was driving that form clearly didn't turn up at Accor Stadium.

The model called the winner right and had the total close, tipping 43 against an actual 40. The margin was where it fell over, picking Rabbitohs by 2.5 in a game that finished 40 points clear. Sometimes the right side wins for reasons the ratings never saw coming.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 16 | 24 | 40 |
| Dragons | 0 | 0 | 0 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **56%** | Possession | 44% |
| **95%** | Completion rate | 76% |
| **2,205** | Run metres | 1,568 |
| **648** | Post-contact metres | 590 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **25** | Tackle breaks | 13 |
| 3 | Offloads | **5** |
| **93.5%** | Effective tackle % | 93.3% |
| **13** | Missed tackles | 25 |
| **5** | Errors | 12 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **2** |
| **764** | Kick metres | 747 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Rabbitohs to win at 56% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.5 but the actual margin was 40 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 40, within 3 points. Rabbitohs led 16–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 40. The model went 6/16 on this match. Rabbitohs covered the 2.5-point line. The over 39.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The 40-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Rabbitohs's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Rabbitohs have a 60% win rate under this referee. Rabbitohs's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 16' Try — Jacob Host (Rabbitohs) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 26' Try — Jye Gray (Rabbitohs) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 37' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 16-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 46' Try — Tallis Duncan (Rabbitohs) — 20-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 64' Try — Peter Mamouzelos (Rabbitohs) — 26-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 71' Try — Thomas Fletcher (Rabbitohs) — 32-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 75' Try — Tyrone Munro (Rabbitohs) — 38-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $2.25 (edge +3.0%) — model probability 56.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Rabbitohs +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 39.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.9%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Rabbitohs by 3 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Rabbitohs are the call at 56%, but Dragons stay live at 44%. The ratings say otherwise: Dragons sit 76 ELO points clear, 1403 to 1327, so the model is backing Rabbitohs against the ratings gap.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Rabbitohs by 2.5, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Rabbitohs, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Rabbitohs have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Rabbitohs took the most recent meeting 30-12 in 2026 Round 7.

Dragons have lost 4 straight; Dragons have leaked 134 in their last four; Dragons are 2-10 on the road this year. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Rabbitohs 15th against Dragons 12th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Rabbitohs 7 · Dragons 3 |
| Last meeting | Rabbitohs 30-12 |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WWWL · 86 for, 70 against |
| Rabbitohs at home | 6-6 this season |
| Dragons last 4 | LLLL · 54 for, 134 against |
| Dragons away | 2-10 this season |
| Ladder | Rabbitohs 15th · Dragons 12th |
| Finals odds | Rabbitohs 0% · Dragons 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Rabbitohs

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 34W–23L | 60% |
| Dragons | 11W–24L | 31% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Gerard Sutton officiates, Rabbitohs have won 34 of 57 games (60%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 11 from 35 (31%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. Rabbitohs get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Dragons's +0.3. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 15.2pts | Avg Score | 20.0pts |
| 27.6pts | Avg Conceded | 19.6pts |
| -12.4pts | Avg Margin | 0.4pts |
| 1422.8m | Run Metres | 1671.0m |
| 4.4 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 352.0 | Tackles | 336.0 |
| 8.4 | Errors | 6.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 2W–3L | 15.2 |
| Dragons | 2W–3L | 20.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Rabbitohs lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R7 | Rabbitohs | 30 – 12 | Dragons |
| 2025 | R2 | Dragons | 24 – 25 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R10 | Dragons | 28 – 14 | Rabbitohs |
| 2023 | R24 | Rabbitohs | 26 – 14 | Dragons |
| 2023 | R15 | Dragons | 36 – 30 | Rabbitohs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.55 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 13th there (1.24 conceded/game). Key man: Johnston, 14 tries in that channel this season.
- Dragons' best path is the middle: NRL's 10th-ranked middle attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 17th there (2.27 conceded/game). Key man: Liddle, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Rabbitohs | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.55/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.33/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 0.86/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 2.27/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.33/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.9/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.55/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.09/g (def 9th) | 0.81/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.24/g (def 13th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Rabbitohs | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 26 | 8 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 152m/g | 155m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.6/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.3% | 87.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Rabbitohs | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 44 · 51 | 52 · 51 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 631m/g | 726m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.7/g | 14.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.2/g | 3.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.5% | 81.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Rabbitohs | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 15 | 8 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 487m/g | 496m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.9/g | 6.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.4% | 92.4% |

**Who scores on Dragons** — Five-Eighths 0.39/g (lg 0.26) +50% · 2nd Rows 0.61/g (lg 0.44) +39% · Fullbacks 0.57/g (lg 0.42) +36%
**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.46/g (lg 0.26) +77% · Hookers 0.21/g (lg 0.14) +50% · Halfbacks 0.27/g (lg 0.21) +29%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jye Gray | FB | 4 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 5/12g | 24% | — | 🏉 27' |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 14 in 14g | 9/10g (1·1·4·0·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 9/14g | 88/89g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.84 AI 67% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' |
| 3 | Isaiah Tass | CE | 5 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 6/28g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Tallis Duncan | CE | 8 in 22g | 8/10g (0·1·0·2·2·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/3g | 3/19g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' |
| 5 | Tyrone Munro | WG | 6 in 11g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 5/6g | 45% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 48% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 76' |
| 6 | Ashton Ward | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamie Humphreys | HB | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 7% | — | — |
| 8 | Sean Keppie | PR | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/20g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Siliva Havili | HK | 2 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 2/24g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 11/46g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Jacob Host | 2R | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/27g | 8% | — | 🏉 17' |
| 12 | Jai Arrow | 2R | 2 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 2/36g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Lachlan Hubner | LK | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Peter Mamouzelos | INT | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/17g | 10% | — | 🏉 65' |
| 15 | Brandon Smith | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Cody Walker | INT | 1 in 9g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/15g | 34/89g | 22% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Fletcher | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 71' |

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 7 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 8/15g | 26/39g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Christian Tuipulotu | WG | 7 in 7g | 9/10g (0·1·1·3·1·0·1·2·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/2g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.93 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Hayden Buchanan | CE | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 49% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Mathew Feagai | CE | 4 in 8g | 7/10g (3·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·2) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Corey Allan | WG | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 5/18g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Lyhkan King-Togia | 5/8 | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 6 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 2/18g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Emre Guler | PR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | LK | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 15/88g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/18g | 1/51g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Luciano Leilua | 2R | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 1/10g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Halangahu | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Murdoch-Masila | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | HK | 8 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 3/13g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.60 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 15 | Blake Lawrie | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 17 | Tyrell Sloan | Replacement | 16 in 18g | 9/10g (2·0·0·2·1·1·2·0·1·0) | 6/6g | 1/2g | 48% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Rabbitohs 1327 · Dragons 1403 · ELO difference: 76 in favour of Dragons

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Rabbitohs | Dragons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1083 (best 1300) | 1070 (best 1281) | Rabbitohs +13 |
| Backs | 1048 (best 1172) | 1025 (best 1092) | Rabbitohs +23 |
| Halves | 1095 (best 1095) | 1314 (best 1314) | Dragons +219 |
| Hooker | 791 | 1200 | Dragons +409 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dragons |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dragons |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dragons |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |

**Model Confidence: 56%** — Rabbitohs predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)