AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (360 career games). The 40-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Rabbitohs's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend — Rabbitohs have a 57% win rate under this referee. Rabbitohs's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile — home teams win 56% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Rabbitohs to win at 56% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 2.5 but the actual margin was 40 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 40 — within 3 points. Rabbitohs led 16–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 40. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Rabbitohs
56%
Dragons
44%
AI Match Overview
Rabbitohs hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Dragons are far from out of this at 44%. The model sees Rabbitohs ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Referee Tendency. Dragons carry a 76-point ELO rating advantage (1403 vs 1327). The margin model predicts Rabbitohs by 2.5 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Rabbitohs to Win @2.25
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.0%
Line / Spread
Rabbitohs +2.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.0%
Total Points
Over 39.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.9%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | WWLLL | 15.2 |
Dragons | WWLLL | 20.0 |
Avg Conceded
27.6
Rabbitohs
19.6
Dragons
Avg Margin
-12.4
Rabbitohs
0.4
Dragons
Run Metres
1423
Rabbitohs
1671
Dragons
Line Breaks
4.4
Rabbitohs
4.6
Dragons
Each team's win rate when Gerard Sutton refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Gerard Sutton officiates, Rabbitohs have won 32 of 56 games (57%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Dragons's 11 from 33 (33%). That's a 24‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 41.9 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Rabbitohs an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
41.9 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
Rabbitohs predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +2.5
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