# Eels v Roosters — NRL Round 25 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Eels 30 – 10 Roosters

_Eels slip past Roosters._

Half time: 14 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Eels 46% / Roosters 54% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 23 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Eels: J'maine Hopgood (10' 1st), Josh Addo-Carr (15' Tipped ⚡), Josh Addo-Carr (28' Tipped ⚡), Mitchell Moses (52'), Jordan Samrani (64'), Jordan Samrani (77') · Roosters: James Tedesco (23' Tipped ⚡), Robert Toia (59')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 54% | Lost |
| Eels | 46% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.3 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Parramatta Eels vs Sydney Roosters Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 25 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Eels 30–10 Roosters in NRL Round 25 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fourteen to four at the break, and nothing about the second half suggested the Roosters were going to claw it back. Eels opened the account through J'maine Hopgood in the ninth minute, added a second via Josh Addo-Carr six minutes later, and had a third from Addo-Carr by the 28th. James Tedesco got one back for the Roosters in between, but by half-time the shape of the game was already set.

The second period just confirmed it. Mitchell Moses crossed in the 51st to push it to 18-4, Robert Toia answered for the Roosters at 59 minutes, and then Jordan Samrani finished it off with two tries in the last quarter, at 64 and 76 minutes, to make it 30-10. No twist, no scare, just the Eels adding to a lead they never looked like handing back.

The stat sheet explains why. Eels ran the ball for 1,482 metres to the Roosters' 1,352, kicked for 687 metres against 532, and held 53% of possession. More telling was what they did with the ball in hand: 11 errors to the Roosters' 22, and an 85% completion rate against a scrappy 57%. You can have all the go-forward you like, but coughing the ball up 22 times against a side completing at that rate is how you spend a night chasing your own mistakes.

Where the Roosters had the better of it was in the collision. They broke 28 tackles to the Eels' 20, made three line breaks to one, and tackled at 90.9% effective compared to the Eels' 85.2%. On paper that reads like a team doing plenty right. In practice, none of it mattered much when the ball kept ending up back in Parramatta's hands through handling errors.

It's worth noting the ledger before kick off had this one upside down. The Roosters carried the stronger forward pack rating, 1050 to 978, and the stronger halves, 1231 to 1069, plus form figures that had them averaging 32.8 points a game to the Eels' 16.6 across the last five. Parramatta's edges were in the backs, 1042 to 864, and at hooker, a lopsided 1083 to 600. Turns out those were the edges that counted, with the halves and forward advantage never translating into scoreboard pressure for the visitors.

Alphr's model had the Roosters winning by 2.3 points and the total sitting around 43. The total wasn't far off, the actual was 40. The margin call was another story entirely: predicted by 2.3, the Roosters instead, lost by 20. A miss of that size doesn't need dressing up. The model went 2 from 16 on this one, and this match was a clear part of the problem, not the solution.

Eels controlled the ball, controlled the errors column, and controlled the clock from the ninth minute onward. The Roosters had the collisions and the line breaks to show for their night, but not the points. Sometimes that's just footy: all the pretty numbers in the world don't fix a completion rate that bad.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eels | 14 | 16 | 30 |
| Roosters | 4 | 6 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Eels | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| **85%** | Completion rate | 57% |
| **1,482** | Run metres | 1,352 |
| 488 | Post-contact metres | **490** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **3** |
| 20 | Tackle breaks | **28** |
| **10** | Offloads | 9 |
| 85.2% | Effective tackle % | **90.9%** |
| 28 | Missed tackles | **20** |
| **11** | Errors | 22 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| **687** | Kick metres | 532 |

**Model Report Card**

Eels defied the model's 54% prediction for Roosters, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.3 but the actual margin was 20 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 40, within 3 points. Eels led 14–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 2/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (60 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 10 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Eels bucked the trend, Roosters historically win 50% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Eels's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 9' Try — J'maine Hopgood (Eels) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 15' Try — Josh Addo-Carr (Eels) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 23' Try — James Tedesco (Roosters) — 10-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 28' Try — Josh Addo-Carr (Eels) — 14-4 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 51' Try — Mitchell Moses (Eels) — 18-4 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 59' Try — Robert Toia (Roosters) — 20-8 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 64' Try — Jordan Samrani (Eels) — 24-10 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 76' Try — Jordan Samrani (Eels) — 30-10 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.32 (edge -21.6%) — model probability 53.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge -21.6%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 40.5 @ $1.91 (edge +7.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 2 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Roosters are the call at 54%, but Eels stay live at 46%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 277 ELO points clear, 1634 to 1356. Form leans Roosters' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Eels.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Roosters by 2.3, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Roosters, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 28-12 in 2026 Round 19.

Eels have won 3 straight; Eels have put up 138 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Eels 14th against Roosters 8th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Eels 3 · Roosters 7 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 28-12 |
| Eels last 4 | LWWW · 138 for, 62 against |
| Eels at home | 6-6 this season |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWL · 96 for, 66 against |
| Roosters away | 7-6 this season |
| Ladder | Eels 14th · Roosters 8th |
| Finals odds | Eels 0% · Roosters 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Wyatt Raymond** — 60 career games since 2024.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 4W–6L | 40% |
| Roosters | 2W–2L | 50% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Roosters hold a 10-point edge: 2W–2L (50%) vs Eels's 4W–6L (40%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (4 games for Roosters).

Eels get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Roosters's -0.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Eels | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 16.6pts | Avg Score | 32.8pts |
| 22.8pts | Avg Conceded | 18.6pts |
| -6.2pts | Avg Margin | 14.2pts |
| 1530.8m | Run Metres | 1464.2m |
| 4.6 | Line Breaks | 3.4 |
| 359.2 | Tackles | 328.0 |
| 13.0 | Errors | 12.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 2W–3L | 16.6 |
| Roosters | 3W–2L | 32.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | Roosters | 28 – 12 | Eels |
| 2024 | R24 | Roosters | 38 – 14 | Eels |
| 2024 | R15 | Eels | 18 – 28 | Roosters |
| 2023 | R25 | Eels | 12 – 34 | Roosters |
| 2023 | R5 | Roosters | 28 – 20 | Eels |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Eels' best path is the middle: NRL's 12th-ranked middle attack (1.14 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 12th there (1.76 conceded/game). Key man: Iongi, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 16th there (1.43 conceded/game). Key man: Smith, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Eels | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.95/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.33/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.05/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.14/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.48/g (def 8th) | 1.9/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.76/g (def 12th) |
| Right | 1.05/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.43/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.33/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.86/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Eels | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 9 | 13 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 164m/g | 165m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.7/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86% | 88.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Eels | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 41 · 53 | 62 · 46 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 734m/g | 719m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.8/g | 20/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.6/g | 3.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.1% | 81.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Eels | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 20 | 15 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 471m/g | 507m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.4/g | 9.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.3% | 90.8% |

**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.36/g (lg 0.26) +38% · Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.1) +20% · Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.21) +14%
**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36% · Wingers 1.64/g (lg 1.25) +31%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 6 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 4/9g | 23% | — | — |
| 2 | Zac Lomax | WG | 9 in 16g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·2·0·0·2) | 5/12g | 4/17g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.02 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Will Penisini | CE | 5 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 15/43g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Dylan Brown | CE | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 15/63g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 13 in 19g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·2·0) | 12/14g | 11/18g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' 28' |
| 6 | Joash Papalii | 5/8 | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/10g | 4% | — | — |
| 7 | Mitchell Moses | HB | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 16/59g | 26% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 8 | J'maine Hopgood | PR | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/27g | 6% | — | 🏉 10' |
| 9 | Ryley Smith | HK | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 9/81g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Kelma Tuilagi | 2R | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/17g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Jack Williams | 2R | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/15g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Dylan Walker | LK | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/19g | 2/15g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Charlie Guymer | INT | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/7g | 23% | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Doorey | INT | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/23g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Jordan Samrani | INT | 2 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/9g | 8% | — | 🏉 64' 77' |

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 9 in 21g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 10/18g | 6/8g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 23' |
| 2 | Junior Tupou | WG | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/6g | 20% | — | — |
| 3 | Billy Smith | CE | 8 in 15g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/3g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 53% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 5 in 18g | 4/10g (2·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 25% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 16 in 20g | 8/10g (1·0·2·2·0·0·0·0·3·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.52 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Hugo Savala | 5/8 | 4 in 19g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.80 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 0 in 6g | 3/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/4g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | LK | 3 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Connor Watson | INT | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 2/6g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | PR | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/6g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/12g | 3/10g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | INT | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 15% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | 2R | 4 in 16g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/10g | 1/9g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.40 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 14 | Benaiah Ioelu | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Salesi Foketi | INT | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |
| 16 | Egan Butcher | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Spencer Leniu | PR | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/10g | 1/5g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Eels 1356 · Roosters 1634 · ELO difference: 277 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Eels | Roosters | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 978 (best 1235) | 1050 (best 1283) | Roosters +71 |
| Backs | 1042 (best 1137) | 864 (best 1008) | Eels +178 |
| Halves | 1069 (best 1069) | 1231 (best 1231) | Roosters +162 |
| Hooker | 1083 | 600 | Eels +483 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Roosters |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Roosters |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Eels |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Eels |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Eels |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Roosters predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)