Win Probability
AI Game Review
Eels defied the model's 54% prediction for Roosters, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.3 but the actual margin was 20 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 40, within 3 points. Eels led 14–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (46 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 10 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Eels's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Eels have a 44% win rate under this referee. Eels's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 61% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Eels
46%
Roosters
54%
AI Match Overview
Roosters hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though Eels are far from out of this at 46%. The model sees Roosters ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Roosters carry a 277-point ELO rating advantage (1634 vs 1356). Recent form favours Roosters with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Eels. The margin model predicts Roosters by 2.3 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Roosters to Win @1.32
Lost ✗
Edge
-21.6%
Line / Spread
Roosters +8.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-21.6%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+7.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Eels | W W L L L | 16.6 |
Roosters | W W W L L | 32.8 |
Avg Conceded
22.8
Eels
18.6
Roosters
Avg Margin
-6.2
Eels
14.2
Roosters
Run Metres
1531
Eels
1464
Roosters
Line Breaks
4.6
Eels
3.4
Roosters
Referee Indicator
Favours EelsWyatt Raymond
46 career games · since 2024
Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)
Eels hold a 11-point edge: 4W–5L (44%) vs Roosters's 1W–2L (33%). Games average 49.9 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (3 games for Roosters).
Avg Total
49.9 pts
Home Win %
61%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
9.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Eels get a +1.2 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Roosters's -1.3.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
54%
Roosters predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: -2.3
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