# Wests Tigers v Cowboys — NRL Round 25 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wests Tigers 28 – 34 Cowboys

_Cowboys roar back to wrangle Wests Tigers._

Half time: 16 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wests Tigers 61% / Cowboys 39% · Leichhardt Oval, Sydney · Sun, 24 Aug, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wests Tigers: Taylan May (17' Tipped ⚡), Taylan May (24' Tipped ⚡), Jahream Bula (37' Tipped ⚡), Jarome Luai (59'), Brent Naden (62') · Cowboys: Jeremiah Nanai (3' 1st), Semi Valemei (9'), Tom Dearden (49' Tipped ⚡), Semi Valemei (66'), Braidon Burns (68' Tipped ⚡), Jaxon Purdue (70' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 61% | Lost |
| Cowboys | 39% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.4 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wests Tigers vs North Queensland Cowboys Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 25 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Wests Tigers 28–34 Cowboys in NRL Round 25 at Leichhardt Oval, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model liked Wests Tigers by 2.4 points and a total near 40. What it got was a Cowboys win by six and 62 points on the board. Half right isn't a bad strike rate in this business, but the shape of it was nothing like the forecast.

Cowboys started like the ratings said they should. Jeremiah Nanai crossed inside three minutes, Semi Valemei added a second by the 9th, and it was 0-8 before Wests Tigers had settled. That much tracked. Cowboys came in with the stronger forward pack rated at 979 to 900 and the better backline at 1078 to 993, and early on that edge looked like it would just keep compounding.

Then Wests Tigers' halves did what their rating suggested they might. At 1418 to Cowboys' 1191, that was the biggest gap on the sheet, and Taylan May cashed it in twice, at the 16th and 23rd minutes, before Jahream Bula's try in the 37th put the home side up 14-10. Wests Tigers took a 16-10 lead into the sheds. At that point the pre-match read looked almost sensible, just with the wrong favourite in front.

The second half is where it all came apart for the model. Tom Dearden got Cowboys within two just after the break, and from the 59th minute the game turned into a shootout. Jarome Luai and Brent Naden struck either side of the hour to push Wests Tigers out to 26-16, which should have been the moment to shut it down. Instead Cowboys scored three tries in ten minutes, Valemei's second, then Braidon Burns, then Jaxon Purdue, to go from 16 down to four up and steal it 34-28.

The stat sheet explains some of that late surge. Cowboys held 52% of possession and completed at 79% to the Tigers' 76%, small edges but the kind that add up over eighty minutes. Post-contact metres told a similar story, 558 to 518 in Cowboys' favour, evidence of a forward pack finishing carries with more sting even though total run metres were dead level at 1,699 apiece. Wests Tigers actually shaded the discipline count, three penalties conceded to Cowboys' four, and offloaded more too, 10 to 8. None of it was enough once Cowboys found their rhythm after the break.

Form lines had flagged some of this. Cowboys were averaging 26 points a game coming in against the Tigers' 18.2, and conceding the same, 26 to 23.2, hardly a portrait of a side that grinds out tight, low-scoring wins. A 62-point shootout suited them fine.

So the ledger on Alphr's read: the 2.4 point margin landed close enough to the final six, and the over on 35.5 cashed easily. But picking Wests Tigers to win at 61% was the miss, and it went down as part of a 6-from-16 night for the model on this one. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 16 | 12 | 28 |
| Cowboys | 10 | 24 | 34 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 48% | Possession | **52%** |
| 76% | Completion rate | **79%** |
| 1,699 | Run metres | 1,699 |
| 518 | Post-contact metres | **558** |
| 6 | Line breaks | 6 |
| 40 | Tackle breaks | 40 |
| **10** | Offloads | 8 |
| **87.5%** | Effective tackle % | 85.2% |
| 40 | Missed tackles | 40 |
| 10 | Errors | 10 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| 533 | Kick metres | **563** |

**Model Report Card**

Cowboys defied the model's 61% prediction for Wests Tigers, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 2.4 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The game's 62 points came in 22 points higher than the predicted 40. Cowboys trailed 16–10 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 28–34. The model went 6/16 on this match. The over 35.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (189 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 18 points above Peter Gough's career average of 44. Cowboys's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Cowboys have a 67% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Jeremiah Nanai (Cowboys) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 9' Try — Semi Valemei (Cowboys) — 0-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 16' Try — Taylan May (Wests Tigers) — 4-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 23' Try — Taylan May (Wests Tigers) — 8-10 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 37' Try — Jahream Bula (Wests Tigers) — 14-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 48' Try — Tom Dearden (Cowboys) — 16-14 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 59' Try — Jarome Luai (Wests Tigers) — 20-16 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 61' Try — Brent Naden (Wests Tigers) — 26-16 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 65' Try — Semi Valemei (Cowboys) — 28-20 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 67' Try — Braidon Burns (Cowboys) — 28-26 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 70' Try — Jaxon Purdue (Cowboys) — 28-32 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wests Tigers to win @ $1.70 (edge +1.1%) — model probability 61.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.1%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 35.5 @ $1.91 (edge +12.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wests Tigers by 2 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Wests Tigers are the call at 61%, but Cowboys stay live at 39%. Form leans Wests Tigers' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Cowboys.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Wests Tigers by 2.4, with the two sides combining for about 40. Lean Wests Tigers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Cowboys have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Cowboys took the most recent meeting 24-10 in 2026 Round 26.

Wests Tigers have lost 3 straight. Cowboys have put up 120 points in four games. Cowboys have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Wests Tigers 11th against Cowboys 13th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Wests Tigers 2 · Cowboys 8 |
| Last meeting | Cowboys 24-10 |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | WLLL · 92 for, 106 against |
| Wests Tigers at home | 5-7 this season |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWWL · 120 for, 89 against |
| Cowboys away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Wests Tigers 11th · Cowboys 13th |
| Finals odds | Wests Tigers 0% · Cowboys 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Cowboys

**Peter Gough** — 189 career games since 2016.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 10W–18L | 36% |
| Cowboys | 18W–9L | 67% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Peter Gough officiates, Cowboys have won 18 of 27 games (67%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 10 from 28 (36%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Wests Tigers get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Cowboys's -0.9.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 18.2pts | Avg Score | 26.0pts |
| 23.2pts | Avg Conceded | 26.0pts |
| -5.0pts | Avg Margin | 0.0pts |
| 1520.6m | Run Metres | 1705.4m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 3.8 |
| 319.6 | Tackles | 350.4 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 13.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 3W–2L | 18.2 |
| Cowboys | 2W–3L | 26.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Cowboys lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Cowboys | 24 – 10 | Wests Tigers |
| 2026 | R2 | Wests Tigers | 44 – 16 | Cowboys |
| 2025 | R13 | Cowboys | 32 – 28 | Wests Tigers |
| 2024 | R22 | Wests Tigers | 30 – 48 | Cowboys |
| 2024 | R12 | Cowboys | 42 – 28 | Wests Tigers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wests Tigers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 11th-ranked left edge attack (1.19 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 17th there (1.73 conceded/game). Key man: Skelton, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Cowboys' best path is the middle: NRL's 10th-ranked middle attack (1.32 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 16th there (2.1 conceded/game). Key man: Drinkwater, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wests Tigers | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.19/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.14/g (def 9th) | 1.05/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.73/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.05/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 2.1/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.32/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.64/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 1/g (att 11th) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.36/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.32/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wests Tigers | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 15 | 14 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 227m/g | 224m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.8/g | 5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.3% | 87% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wests Tigers | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 47 · 48 | 56 · 59 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 675m/g | 751m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.1/g | 15.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.4/g | 3.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.5% | 75.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wests Tigers | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 18 | 11 · 23 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 509m/g | 454m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.2/g | 6.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.1% | 89% |

**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.26/g (lg 0.17) +53% · Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Five-Eighths 0.33/g (lg 0.26) +27%
**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Fullbacks 0.62/g (lg 0.42) +48% · Props 0.23/g (lg 0.17) +35% · Five-Eighths 0.35/g (lg 0.26) +35%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Leichhardt Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 5 in 15g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 5/5g | 6/6g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 47% ✓ Scored | 🏉 37' |
| 2 | Sunia Turuva | WG | 11 in 21g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/5g | 1/2g | 30% | — | — |
| 3 | Taylan May | CE | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 41% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' 24' |
| 5 | Jeral Skelton | WG | 9 in 13g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·2·0·2·1) | 0/1g | 2/1g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.80 AI 76% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jarome Luai | 5/8 | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/2g | 8% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 7 | Adam Doueihi | HB | 6 in 20g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·1) | 0/8g | 4/13g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 12% | — | 🏉 17' 24' |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 3 in 19g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 1/14g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 3/10g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/3g | 4/6g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Sione Fainu | 2R | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/21g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Latu Fainu | INT | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Royce Hunt | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Charlie Murray | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Tony Sukkar | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 11 in 22g | 7/10g (0·0·2·1·0·1·1·0·0·2) | 8/11g | 3/4g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Semi Valemei | WG | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (2·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 34% | — | 🏉 9' 66' |
| 3 | Jaxon Purdue | CE | 13 in 22g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·2·1) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 59% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 70' |
| 4 | Viliami Vailea | CE | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 5 | Braidon Burns | WG | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.18 AI 51% ✓ Scored | 🏉 68' |
| 6 | Jake Clifford | 5/8 | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Tom Dearden | HB | 8 in 20g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·1) | 5/8g | 1/2g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' |
| 8 | Jordan McLean | PR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Jason Taumalolo | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | John Bateman | 2R | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Jeremiah Nanai | 2R | 8 in 19g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 8/7g | 0/1g | 38% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 13 | Reuben Cotter | LK | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Karl Lawton | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Harrison Edwards | INT | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Zac Laybutt | INT | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 29% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Mikaele | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wests Tigers 1404 · Cowboys 1396 · ELO difference: 8 in favour of Wests Tigers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Wests Tigers | Cowboys | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 900 (best 1293) | 979 (best 1204) | Cowboys +78 |
| Backs | 993 (best 1103) | 1078 (best 1213) | Cowboys +85 |
| Halves | 1418 (best 1418) | 1191 (best 1191) | Wests Tigers +227 |
| Hooker | 985 | 855 | Wests Tigers +131 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Cowboys |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Cowboys |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Wests Tigers predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)