# Sea Eagles v Dolphins — NRL Round 25 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sea Eagles 58 – 30 Dolphins

_Sea Eagles swoop on Dolphins._

Half time: 22 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sea Eagles 55% / Dolphins 45% · Brookvale Oval, Sydney · Sat, 23 Aug, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sea Eagles: Matthew Lodge (6'), Luke Brooks (16'), Lehi Hopoate (27'), Ethan Bullemor (29'), Lehi Hopoate (43'), Ben Trbojevic (48'), Luke Brooks (59'), Tom Trbojevic (64'), Tolutau Koula (69' Tipped ⚡), Tom Trbojevic (71') · Dolphins: Kulikefu Finefeuiaki (2' 1st), Jeremy Marshall-King (13' Tipped ⚡), Connelly Lemuelu (62'), Felise Kaufusi (75'), Connelly Lemuelu (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 55% | Won |
| Dolphins | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.1 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Manly Sea Eagles vs Redcliffe Dolphins Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 25 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Sea Eagles 58–30 Dolphins in NRL Round 25 at Brookvale Oval, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-one offloads to five. That's the number that explains how the Sea Eagles turned a one-score contest at the break into a 58-30 demolition of the Dolphins at Brookvale Oval.

Keeping the ball alive that often does two things. It punishes a defence that's already stretched, and it turns broken tackles into second-phase points. Manly backed it up with 632 post-contact metres to 501, and while the Dolphins actually won the tackle-bust count 39 to 30, none of that mattered once the footy kept coming out of dummy-half all afternoon.

The Dolphins were first to strike, Kulikefu Finefeuiaki crossing inside a minute, and Jeremy Marshall-King had them ahead again at 13 minutes. Manly hit back through Matthew Lodge and Luke Brooks to lead 12-10, then found another gear. Lehi Hopoate and Ethan Bullemor scored inside a three-minute burst either side of the half-hour mark, and the Sea Eagles went to the sheds up 22-12.

From there it was one-way traffic. Hopoate's second try opened the second half, Ben Trbojevic and Brooks followed, and by the 58th minute it was 38-12. The Dolphins never stopped scoring, Connelly Lemuelu crossing twice and Felise Kaufusi once, but every answer was met with another Manly try, Tom Trbojevic (2) and Tolutau Koula piling on in the final quarter to blow it out to 58-30.

The ledger backs up what the eye test showed. Manly held 52% of the ball, completed at a tidier 78% to the Dolphins' 75%, and out-gained them on the ground, 2,072 running metres to 1,594. The kicking game did its job too, 514 metres to 352, pinning the Dolphins deep often enough to make each error count double.

None of this fits the pre-match shape. The Dolphins came in with the stronger halves pairing on paper, 1152 to 923, and a hooker rated well above Manly's at 1168 to 989. Their form line read better too, two wins from five against Manly's one, averaging 23 points a game to Manly's 10. On the numbers, this was meant to be tight. Alphr's model had Manly favourites but only just, 55% to win, with a margin of 2.1 and a combined total of 44.

It got the winner right and not much else. The final margin was 28, not 2, and the 88 points scored blew the total out by 44. Manly's forward pack, rated 1000 to 872 pre-match, did what heavier packs tend to do when the ball keeps popping out of tackles, it wore the Dolphins down over eighty minutes rather than one half.

Missed tackles tell the same story from the other side, Manly leaking 39 to the Dolphins' 30, and penalties were even at three apiece, so neither indiscipline nor grind explains the gap. It came down to what happened with the ball in hand, and on that measure it wasn't close. Twenty-one offloads will do that to a game plan.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 22 | 36 | 58 |
| Dolphins | 12 | 18 | 30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| **78%** | Completion rate | 75% |
| **2,072** | Run metres | 1,594 |
| **632** | Post-contact metres | 501 |
| **10** | Line breaks | 9 |
| 30 | Tackle breaks | **39** |
| **21** | Offloads | 5 |
| **86.3%** | Effective tackle % | 83.5% |
| 39 | Missed tackles | **30** |
| 13 | Errors | **10** |
| 3 | Penalties conceded | 3 |
| **514** | Kick metres | 352 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 55% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.1 but the actual margin was 28 points. The game's 88 points came in 44 points higher than the predicted 44. Sea Eagles led 22–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. The model went 4/16 on this match. Sea Eagles covered the 1.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (422 career games). The combined score of 88 points was 45 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Sea Eagles's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Sea Eagles have a 50% win rate under this referee. Sea Eagles's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 1' Try — Kulikefu Finefeuiaki (Dolphins) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 6' Try — Matthew Lodge (Sea Eagles) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 13' Try — Jeremy Marshall-King (Dolphins) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 16' Try — Luke Brooks (Sea Eagles) — 10-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 27' Try — Lehi Hopoate (Sea Eagles) — 16-12 · win-prob swing +16 pts
- 29' Try — Ethan Bullemor (Sea Eagles) — 22-12 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 43' Try — Lehi Hopoate (Sea Eagles) — 26-12 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 48' Try — Ben Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 32-12 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 58' Try — Luke Brooks (Sea Eagles) — 38-12 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 62' Try — Connelly Lemuelu (Dolphins) — 40-16 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 64' Try — Tom Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 44-18 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 68' Try — Tolutau Koula (Sea Eagles) — 50-18 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 71' Try — Tom Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 56-18 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 75' Try — Felise Kaufusi (Dolphins) — 58-22 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 79' Try — Connelly Lemuelu (Dolphins) — 58-28 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.75 (edge +4.6%) — model probability 54.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +11.3%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 2 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Sea Eagles are the call at 55%, but Dolphins stay live at 45%. The ratings say otherwise: Dolphins sit 103 ELO points clear, 1485 to 1382, so the model is backing Sea Eagles against the ratings gap. Form leans Dolphins' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Sea Eagles.

On paper Dolphins shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The model still sides with Sea Eagles, which says Forward Pack and Referee Tendency carry the most weight. The margin model has Sea Eagles by 2.1, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Sea Eagles, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Sea Eagles have won 3 of the last 5 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 22-0 in 2026 Round 24.

Sea Eagles have won 3 straight; Sea Eagles have put up 137 points in four games. Dolphins have put up 156 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Sea Eagles 10th against Dolphins 9th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 5) | Sea Eagles 3 · Dolphins 2 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 22-0 |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWW · 137 for, 106 against |
| Sea Eagles at home | 8-4 this season |
| Dolphins last 4 | LLWW · 156 for, 150 against |
| Dolphins away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Sea Eagles 10th · Dolphins 9th |
| Finals odds | Sea Eagles 0% · Dolphins 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sea Eagles

**Ashley Klein** — 422 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 20W–20L | 50% |
| Dolphins | 3W–5L | 38% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Sea Eagles hold a 12-point edge: 20W–20L (50%) vs Dolphins's 3W–5L (38%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Sea Eagles get a +0.1 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Dolphins's -1.5.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 10.0pts | Avg Score | 23.0pts |
| 26.4pts | Avg Conceded | 33.6pts |
| -16.4pts | Avg Margin | -10.6pts |
| 1463.6m | Run Metres | 1620.4m |
| 2.8 | Line Breaks | 5.8 |
| 344.0 | Tackles | 351.6 |
| 12.4 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 1W–4L | 10.0 |
| Dolphins | 2W–3L | 23.0 |

### H2H History (Last 4) — Tied 2-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Sea Eagles | 0 – 22 | Dolphins |
| 2026 | R5 | Dolphins | 18 – 52 | Sea Eagles |
| 2024 | R10 | Dolphins | 30 – 24 | Sea Eagles |
| 2023 | R15 | Sea Eagles | 58 – 18 | Dolphins |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sea Eagles' best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 14th there (1.29 conceded/game). Key man: Koula, 15 tries in that channel this season.
- Dolphins' best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.43 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 10th there (1.57 conceded/game). Key man: Tabuai-Fidow, 18 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sea Eagles | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.29/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.1/g (def 8th) | 1.14/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.24/g (def 12th) |
| Middle | 0.76/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.57/g (def 10th) | 2.43/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.48/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 1.33/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.1/g (def 11th) | 1.1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.29/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sea Eagles | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 15 | 14 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 182m/g | 219m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.6/g | 3.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.8% | 87.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sea Eagles | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 51 · 47 | 60 · 54 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 712m/g | 762m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.8/g | 17.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.3/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.2% | 81.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sea Eagles | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 11 | 11 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 489m/g | 489m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.3/g | 5.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.3% | 89.3% |

**Who scores on Dolphins** — Halfbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.21) +38% · Centres 0.91/g (lg 0.69) +32% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30%
**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Wingers 1.39/g (lg 1.25) +11% · Fullbacks 0.46/g (lg 0.42) +10% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Brookvale Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Trbojevic | FB | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/2g | 38/58g | 38% | — | 🏉 64' 71' |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 10 in 17g | 5/10g (2·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 22/36g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.95 AI 46% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 15 in 20g | 8/10g (1·1·0·1·1·1·0·1·1·1) | 3/2g | 21/34g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.96 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 69' |
| 4 | Tommy Talau | CE | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 8/15g | 38% | — | — |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | WG | 4 in 19g | 3/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/16g | 28% | — | 🏉 27' 43' |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/27g | 10% | — | 🏉 16' 59' |
| 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans | HB | 4 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 40/137g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Matthew Lodge | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/9g | 8% | — | 🏉 6' |
| 9 | Jake Simpkin | HK | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/15g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Siosiua Taukeiaho | PR | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/13g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Corey Waddell | 2R | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/32g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 9/32g | 22% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 13 | Jazz Tevaga | LK | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/14g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Aaron Schoupp | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Caleb Navale | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Ethan Bullemor | INT | 3 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/35g | 10% | — | 🏉 29' |
| 17 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/38g | 12% | — | — |

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | CE | 18 in 18g | 13/10g (2·0·1·2·1·4·2·0·0·1) | 4/5g | 3/3g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.86 AI 64% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 10 in 21g | 6/10g (1·2·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 5/7g | 2/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | 5/8 | 9 in 21g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·1) | 2/8g | 0/2g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Max Feagai | CE | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 5 | Tevita Naufahu | WG | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.98 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Francis Molo | PR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/9g | 0/4g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.25 AI 32% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' |
| 10 | Felise Kaufusi | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 3/4g | 4% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 11 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 4% | — | 🏉 2' |
| 12 | Oryn Keeley | 2R | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.00 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Kurt Donoghoe | LK | 3 in 19g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Trai Fuller | FB | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| 15 | Connelly Lemuelu | INT | 7 in 18g | 3/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/2g | 20% | — | 🏉 62' 79' |
| 16 | Mark Nicholls | INT | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Josh Kerr | INT | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1485 vs 1382), but the market favours Sea Eagles (@1.75). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sea Eagles 1382 · Dolphins 1485 · ELO difference: 103 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sea Eagles | Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1000 (best 1196) | 872 (best 1158) | Sea Eagles +128 |
| Backs | 846 (best 997) | 942 (best 1042) | Dolphins +96 |
| Halves | 923 (best 923) | 1152 (best 1152) | Dolphins +229 |
| Hooker | 989 | 1168 | Dolphins +179 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Sea Eagles predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)