Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 55% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.1 but the actual margin was 28 points. The game's 88 points came in 44 points higher than the predicted 44. Sea Eagles led 22–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (386 career games). The combined score of 88 points was 44 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Sea Eagles's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Sea Eagles have a 49% win rate under this referee. Sea Eagles's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sea Eagles
55%
Dolphins
45%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Dolphins are far from out of this at 45%. Dolphins are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control, but Sea Eagles counter with Forward Pack and Referee Tendency which tips the scales. Dolphins carry a 103-point ELO rating advantage (1485 vs 1382). Recent form favours Dolphins with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Sea Eagles. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 2.1 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.75
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.6%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles -1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.6%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+11.3%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sea Eagles | W L L L L | 10.0 |
Dolphins | W W L L L | 23.0 |
Avg Conceded
26.4
Sea Eagles
33.6
Dolphins
Avg Margin
-16.4
Sea Eagles
-10.6
Dolphins
Run Metres
1464
Sea Eagles
1620
Dolphins
Line Breaks
2.8
Sea Eagles
5.8
Dolphins
Referee Indicator
Favours Sea EaglesAshley Klein
386 career games · since 2010
Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)
Sea Eagles hold a 11-point edge: 19W–20L (49%) vs Dolphins's 3W–5L (38%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
43.6 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
8.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.16
SB Away %
42%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ashley Klein averages just 8.9 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow. Dolphins get a +0.0 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Sea Eagles's -0.8.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1485 vs 1382), but the market favours Sea Eagles (@1.75).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
55%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +2.1
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