Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 65% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Storm by 6.6 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The game's 64 points came in 18 points higher than the predicted 46. Storm trailed 18–16 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 30–34. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (295 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 21 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Despite Adam Gee's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Storm prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Roosters
35%
Storm
65%
AI Match Overview
Storm are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Roosters. Roosters are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Referee Tendency, but Storm counter with ELO Difference and Halves Control which tips the scales. Storm carry a 160-point ELO rating advantage (1673 vs 1513). Recent form favours Storm with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Roosters. The margin model predicts Storm by 6.6 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.50
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.2%
Line / Spread
Storm +6.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.2%
Total Points
Under 46.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-0.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Roosters | W W W L L | 26.2 |
Storm | W W W W L | 25.8 |
Avg Conceded
20.2
Roosters
16.4
Storm
Avg Margin
6.0
Roosters
9.4
Storm
Run Metres
1675
Roosters
1852
Storm
Line Breaks
4.2
Roosters
3.8
Storm
Referee Indicator
BalancedAdam Gee
295 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Adam Gee, Roosters 26W–14L (65%) and Storm 30W–14L (68%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Storm get a +0.0 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Roosters's -1.4. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
65%
Storm predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: -6.6
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