# NRL Round 21 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Round 21 of the 2025 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 21 at a glance
- 8 matches · 16W–8L on 24 settled picks (67% strike rate) · best value +24.9% edge

## Round 21 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos v Eels | Broncos @ $1.20 | Broncos 74% | LOST |
| Bulldogs v Sea Eagles | Bulldogs @ $1.60 | Bulldogs 62% | WON |
| Rabbitohs v Sharks | Sharks @ $1.23 | Sharks 67% | WON |
| Cowboys v Dragons | Cowboys @ $1.55 | Cowboys 63% | WON |
| Warriors v Titans | Warriors @ $1.30 | Warriors 74% | LOST |
| Raiders v Knights | Raiders @ $1.20 | Raiders 74% | WON |
| Panthers v Wests Tigers | Panthers @ $1.25 | Panthers 77% | WON |
| Roosters v Storm | Storm @ $1.50 | Storm 65% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Broncos v Eels
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Suncorp Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Broncos 73.7% / Eels 26.3%
- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.20 (edge -11.0%) — model probability 73.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos -13.5 @ $1.91 (edge -11.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +24.9%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 10 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r21-broncos-v-eels

### Bulldogs v Sea Eagles
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Allianz Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Bulldogs 61.6% / Sea Eagles 38.4%
- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.60 (edge +30.0%) — model probability 61.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +30.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 4 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r21-bulldogs-v-sea-eagles

### Rabbitohs v Sharks
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Polytec Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Rabbitohs 32.6% / Sharks 67.4%
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.23 (edge -16.6%) — model probability 67.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks +11.5 @ $1.91 (edge -16.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 7 · Predicted total: 54
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r21-rabbitohs-v-sharks

### Cowboys v Dragons
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Queensland Country Bank Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Cowboys 63.4% / Dragons 36.6%
- **Head to Head:** Cowboys to win @ $1.55 (edge +2.8%) — model probability 63.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.3%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 4 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r21-cowboys-v-dragons

### Warriors v Titans
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Go Media Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Warriors 73.9% / Titans 26.1%
- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.30 (edge -4.8%) — model probability 73.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge -4.8%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +13.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 9 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r21-warriors-v-titans

### Raiders v Knights
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · GIO Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Raiders 74.4% / Knights 25.6%
- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.20 (edge -11.0%) — model probability 74.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders -13.5 @ $1.91 (edge -11.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +7.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 10 · Predicted total: 42
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r21-raiders-v-knights

### Panthers v Wests Tigers
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · CommBank Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Panthers 77.2% / Wests Tigers 22.8%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.25 (edge -6.2%) — model probability 77.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge -6.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +7.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 12 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r21-panthers-v-wests-tigers

### Roosters v Storm
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Allianz Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Roosters 34.7% / Storm 65.3%
- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.50 (edge +3.2%) — model probability 65.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge -60.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Storm by 7 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r21-roosters-v-storm

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 61.5% | 131/213 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 60.4% | 128/212 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 53.8% | 114/212 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/20 (markdown: /nrl/2025/round/20.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/22 (markdown: /nrl/2025/round/22.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/21
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-05 03:25 UTC