Win Probability
AI Game Review
Titans defied the model's 74% prediction for Warriors, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.3 but the actual margin was 8 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 40, within 4 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 48.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (367 career games). The 40-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Titans bucked the trend, Warriors historically win 40% of games under Gerard Sutton, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Titans prevailed. 61% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Warriors
74%
Titans
26%
AI Match Overview
Warriors are clear favourites here at 74%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Titans. The model sees Warriors ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Warriors carry a 298-point ELO rating advantage (1557 vs 1258). Recent form favours Warriors with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Titans. The margin model predicts Warriors by 9.3 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Warriors to Win @1.30
Lost ✗
Edge
-4.8%
Line / Spread
Warriors -9.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-4.8%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+13.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Warriors | W W W L L | 24.8 |
Titans | W L L L L | 21.2 |
Avg Conceded
18.6
Warriors
24.2
Titans
Avg Margin
6.2
Warriors
-3.0
Titans
Run Metres
1582
Warriors
1634
Titans
Line Breaks
4.8
Warriors
4.2
Titans
Referee Indicator
Favours WarriorsGerard Sutton
367 career games · since 2011
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
Warriors hold a 5-point edge: 10W–15L (40%) vs Titans's 8W–15L (35%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.0 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Warriors get a +0.3 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Titans's -1.0. 61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
74%
Warriors predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +9.3
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