# Warriors v Titans — NRL Round 21 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warriors 16 – 24 Titans

_Titans muscle past Warriors._

Half time: 10 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warriors 74% / Titans 26% · Go Media Stadium, Auckland · Sat, 26 July, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warriors: Adam Pompey (4' 1st Tipped ⚡), Leka Halasima (9' Tipped ⚡), Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (61' Tipped ⚡) · Titans: Jojo Fifita (12' Tipped ⚡), Phillip Sami (15' Tipped ⚡), Phillip Sami (47' Tipped ⚡), Jojo Fifita (56' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 74% | Lost |
| Titans | 26% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 9.3 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Zealand Warriors vs Gold Coast Titans Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 21 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Warriors 16–24 Titans in NRL Round 21 at Go Media Stadium, Auckland. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Warriors wanted to play footy. The Titans wanted the ball in hand and the errors kept to a minimum. Only one of those approaches survived the full 80, and it wasn't the one with more line breaks.

Final score: Titans 24, Warriors 16, at Go Media Stadium. The Titans led 12-10 at the break and never really let go after that.

It started as a shootout. Adam Pompey opened the scoring inside three minutes, Leka Halasima crossed five minutes later and the Warriors were out to 10-0 before the game was even ten minutes old. Then the Titans found their rhythm: Jojo Fifita in the 11th, Phillip Sami in the 14th, and suddenly it was 10-10 with most of the first half still to play. That was the pattern for the night, the Warriors sprinting early and the Titans grinding their way back into it.

The second half belonged to Gold Coast. Sami's second try in the 47th minute put them ahead for good, and when Dallin Watene-Zelezniak was sent to the bin in the 55th, Fifita punished it a minute later to make it 22-10. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck got one back for the Warriors in the 61st, but by then the Titans had the sort of buffer that doesn't get clawed back against a side leaking this much ball.

That's really the story of the stat sheet. The Titans ran at 90% completion to the Warriors' 78%, and turned it over just 6 times against 11. In a game this tight, five extra sets is the difference between applying pressure and defending your own line. The Titans also had more of it, 54% possession, and did more with it: 12 offloads to 6, 26 tackle breaks to 21, and 659 post-contact metres to 576. The Warriors won the penalty count, 4 to 6, but discipline without the ball doesn't win matches.

Individually it was Sami and Fifita doing the damage, two tries apiece, while Pompey, Halasima and Tuivasa-Sheck got the Warriors on the board but couldn't find a fourth. The Warriors' halves and forwards had rated superior going in, 1145 to 1013 in the halves and 1077 to 996 up front, and for twenty minutes that showed. But rankings don't complete sets, and the Titans' six-error night against the Warriors' eleven told the real story of who controlled the football.

The form lines had pointed the other way too. The Warriors arrived on three wins from five with a plus-6.2 average margin, the Titans on one win from five and minus-3. Alphr's model had Warriors by 9.3 and gave them a 74% chance of the win. Instead the Titans won by 8, close enough to the model's margin figure to be almost funny, just pointed in the wrong direction. The total of 40 landed within four points of the predicted 44, and the under 48.5 call held up fine. The scoreline, though, was a clean miss, one of the ten this model got wrong on the night.

Sometimes the side with the ball in hand for longer just wins the arm wrestle. This was one of those nights.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 10 | 6 | 16 |
| Titans | 12 | 12 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Warriors | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 46% | Possession | **54%** |
| 78% | Completion rate | **90%** |
| 1,709 | Run metres | **1,876** |
| 576 | Post-contact metres | **659** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 21 | Tackle breaks | **26** |
| 6 | Offloads | **12** |
| 89.7% | Effective tackle % | **90.6%** |
| 26 | Missed tackles | **21** |
| 11 | Errors | **6** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| 582 | Kick metres | **713** |

**Model Report Card**

Titans defied the model's 74% prediction for Warriors, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.3 but the actual margin was 8 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 40, within 4 points. The model went 6/16 on this match. The under 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The 40-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Titans bucked the trend, Warriors historically win 41% of games under Gerard Sutton, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Gerard Sutton's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Titans prevailed. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Adam Pompey (Warriors) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 8' Try — Leka Halasima (Warriors) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 11' Try — Jojo Fifita (Titans) — 10-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 14' Try — Phillip Sami (Titans) — 10-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 47' Try — Phillip Sami (Titans) — 10-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 55' Sin Bin — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) — 10-16 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 56' Try — Jojo Fifita (Titans) — 10-22 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 61' Try — Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (Warriors) — 14-24 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 77' Sin Bin — Sean Mullany (Titans) — 14-24 · win-prob swing +4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.30 (edge -4.8%) — model probability 73.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge -4.8%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +13.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 9 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Warriors here: 74% to see off Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 298 ELO points clear, 1557 to 1258. Form leans Warriors' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Titans.

Warriors own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Warriors by 9.3, with the two sides combining for about 44. Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Titans have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 42-6 in 2026 Round 22.

Warriors have lost 3 straight. Titans have leaked 150 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 on the road this year. Warriors have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Warriors 4th against Titans 17th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Warriors 4 · Titans 6 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 42-6 |
| Warriors last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 95 against |
| Warriors at home | 7-6 this season |
| Titans last 4 | LLLW · 106 for, 150 against |
| Titans away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Warriors 4th · Titans 17th |
| Finals odds | Warriors 100% · Titans 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Warriors

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 12W–17L | 41% |
| Titans | 8W–16L | 33% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Warriors hold a 8-point edge: 12W–17L (41%) vs Titans's 8W–16L (33%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. Warriors get a +0.5 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Titans's -0.6. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warriors | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 24.8pts | Avg Score | 21.2pts |
| 18.6pts | Avg Conceded | 24.2pts |
| 6.2pts | Avg Margin | -3.0pts |
| 1581.6m | Run Metres | 1633.8m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 4.2 |
| 358.6 | Tackles | 338.6 |
| 8.8 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 3W–2L | 24.8 |
| Titans | 1W–4L | 21.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warriors lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Titans | 6 – 42 | Warriors |
| 2026 | R7 | Warriors | 28 – 20 | Titans |
| 2025 | R25 | Titans | 18 – 32 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R16 | Titans | 66 – 6 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R8 | Warriors | 24 – 27 | Titans |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warriors' best path is the right edge: NRL's 15th-ranked right edge attack (0.88 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 17th there (1.76 conceded/game). Key man: Watene-Zelezniak, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Titans' best path is the left edge: NRL's 9th-ranked left edge attack (1.24 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 13th there (1.29 conceded/game). Key man: Sami, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warriors | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.24/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.29/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.24/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.41/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.71/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.18/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.18/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.76/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.88/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 0.94/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.18/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.76/g (def 17th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warriors | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 7 | 10 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 198m/g | 178m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 4.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.9% | 83.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warriors | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 12th | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 29 · 40 | 37 · 53 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 643m/g | 667m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.2/g | 11.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 2.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.7% | 76.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warriors | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 9 | 12 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 535m/g | 551m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.6/g | 9.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.6% | 90.6% |

**Who scores on Titans** — Props 0.34/g (lg 0.16) +113% · Fullbacks 0.71/g (lg 0.43) +65% · 2nd Rows 0.66/g (lg 0.44) +50%
**Who scores on Warriors** — Fullbacks 0.43/g (lg 0.43) +0% · Halfbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.21) +0% · Wingers 1.21/g (lg 1.25) -3%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Go Media Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | FB | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 6/23g | 22% | — | — |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 3 in 8g | 6/10g (0·3·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 5/13g | 18/29g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.59 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Adam Pompey | CE | 6 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 4/28g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 42% ✓ Scored | 🏉 4' |
| 4 | Kurt Capewell | CE | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 3/14g | 16% | — | — |
| 5 | Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | WG | 7 in 11g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·2·0·0·1·1·0) | 7/14g | 13/51g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.61 AI 53% ✓ Scored | 🏉 61' |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 7 in 17g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·2·0) | 0/7g | 11/23g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Tanah Boyd | HB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/8g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 2/29g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Jackson Ford | PR | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/24g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Leka Halasima | 2R | 8 in 17g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 2/8g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 63% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 9' |
| 12 | Marata Niukore | 2R | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 5/20g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Te Maire Martin | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 2/14g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Jacob Laban | INT | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/8g | 13% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.75 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 17 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AJ Brimson | FB | 9 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 5/7g | 3/3g | 34% | — | — |
| 2 | Jaylan De Groot | WG | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 3 | Brian Kelly | CE | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | Jojo Fifita | CE | 9 in 12g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·2·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 12' 56' |
| 5 | Phillip Sami | WG | 10 in 17g | 7/10g (1·2·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/7g | 0/2g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' 47' |
| 6 | Kieran Foran | 5/8 | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/18g | 1/10g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Jayden Campbell | HB | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/5g | 1/1g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | PR | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Jaimin Jolliffe | PR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Chris Randall | HK | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 6 in 17g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/6g | 1/2g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Klese Haas | LK | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Alick-Wiencke | 2R | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Reagan Campbell-Gillard | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Iszac Fa'asuamaleaui | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 17 | Josh Patston | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warriors 1557 · Titans 1258 · ELO difference: 298 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Warriors | Titans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1077 (best 1288) | 996 (best 1219) | Warriors +82 |
| Backs | 1001 (best 1074) | 938 (best 1040) | Warriors +64 |
| Halves | 1145 (best 1145) | 1013 (best 1013) | Warriors +133 |
| Hooker | 990 | 935 | Warriors +56 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warriors |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Warriors |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 74%** — Warriors predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)