Win Probability
AI Game Review
Eels defied the model's 74% prediction for Broncos, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 9.5 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 42, within 1 points. Eels trailed 14–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 20–22. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 50.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (105 career games). The combined score of 42 points was 4 points below Todd Smith's career average of 46.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Broncos
74%
Eels
26%
AI Match Overview
Broncos are clear favourites here at 74%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Eels. The model sees Broncos ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Broncos carry a 195-point ELO rating advantage (1534 vs 1339). Recent form favours Broncos with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Eels. The margin model predicts Broncos by 9.5 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Broncos to Win @1.20
Lost ✗
Edge
-11.0%
Line / Spread
Broncos -13.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-11.0%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+24.9%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Broncos | W W W W W | 30.4 |
Eels | W L L L L | 18.8 |
Avg Conceded
17.2
Broncos
31.2
Eels
Avg Margin
13.2
Broncos
-12.4
Eels
Run Metres
1669
Broncos
1595
Eels
Line Breaks
7.4
Broncos
4.4
Eels
Referee Indicator
BalancedTodd Smith
105 career games · since 2019
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Todd Smith, Broncos 9W–6L (60%) and Eels 9W–7L (56%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.1 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
10.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.50
SB Away %
52%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
74%
Broncos predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: +9.5
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