Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 62% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.2 but the actual margin was 38 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 46, within 1 points. Bulldogs led 12–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 38. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (386 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Bulldogs's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Bulldogs have a 57% win rate under this referee. Bulldogs's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Bulldogs
62%
Sea Eagles
38%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Sea Eagles are far from out of this at 38%. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Referee Tendency. Bulldogs carry a 60-point ELO rating advantage (1566 vs 1506). The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 4.2 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.60
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.3%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs -2.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.3%
Total Points
Over 43.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Bulldogs | W W W L L | 16.0 |
Sea Eagles | W W W L L | 21.2 |
Avg Conceded
14.8
Bulldogs
18.4
Sea Eagles
Avg Margin
1.2
Bulldogs
2.8
Sea Eagles
Run Metres
1831
Bulldogs
1731
Sea Eagles
Line Breaks
3.8
Bulldogs
5.4
Sea Eagles
Referee Indicator
Favours BulldogsAshley Klein
386 career games · since 2010
Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)
Bulldogs hold a 8-point edge: 23W–17L (57%) vs Sea Eagles's 19W–20L (49%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
43.6 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
8.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.16
SB Away %
42%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ashley Klein averages just 8.9 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow. Bulldogs get a +0.3 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Sea Eagles's -0.8.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
62%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +4.2
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