NRL | Round 21

alphr.com.au

CBY
Bulldogs
VS
MAN
Sea Eagles
ALLIANZ STADIUM, SYDNEY • SUNDAY 27 JULY, 4:05 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Ashley Klein officiated this match (379 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Bulldogs's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend — Bulldogs have a 56% win rate under this referee. Bulldogs's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile — home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 62% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 4.2 but the actual margin was 38 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 46 — within 1 points. Bulldogs led 12–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 38. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

62%BulldogsFavourite

Bulldogs

62%

Sea Eagles

38%

AI Match Overview

Bulldogs hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Sea Eagles are far from out of this at 38%. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Referee Tendency. Bulldogs carry a 60-point ELO rating advantage (1566 vs 1506). The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 4.2 points with a combined total of 45.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Bulldogs to Win @1.60

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.3%

Line / Spread

Bulldogs -2.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.3%

Total Points

Over 43.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+3.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Bulldogs
WWWLL
16.0
Sea Eagles
WWWLL
21.2

Avg Conceded

14.8

Bulldogs

18.4

Sea Eagles

Avg Margin

1.2

Bulldogs

2.8

Sea Eagles

Run Metres

1831

Bulldogs

1731

Sea Eagles

Line Breaks

3.8

Bulldogs

5.4

Sea Eagles

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Bulldogs
Ashley Klein379 games since 2010

Each team's win rate when Ashley Klein refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

CBY
56%22W 17L
MAN
50%19W 19L

Bulldogs hold a 6‑point edge: 22W–17L (56%) vs Sea Eagles's 19W–19L (50%) across all games Ashley Klein has refereed for each side. His games average 43.4 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Bulldogs an additional edge at home.

Avg Total

43.4 pts

Home Win %

60%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Sea Eagles lead 4-1
Sep 2024CBY 22 - 24 MAN
Sep 2024CBY 22 - 34 MAN
Sep 2023CBY 24 - 42 MAN
Mar 2023CBY 6 - 31 MAN
Sep 2022CBY 21 - 20 MAN
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CBY
1566Overall1506
MAN
ELO difference: +60 in favour of Bulldogs

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1061Forwards1053
Best: 1250EvenBest: 1285
983Backs1111
Best: 1097MAN +128Best: 1159
1214Halves1409
Best: 1214MAN +195Best: 1409
1200Hooker1040
CBY +160

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CBY
Stat
MAN
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
16.0pts
Avg Score
21.2pts
14.8pts
Avg Conceded
18.4pts
1.2pts
Avg Margin
2.8pts
1831.2m
Run Metres
1730.8m
3.8
Line Breaks
5.4
366.2
Tackles
360.8
11.6
Errors
11.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Bulldogs
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Bulldogs
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Eagles
4
Halves Control9.0%
Eagles
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Bulldogs
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Bulldogs

Model Confidence

62%

Bulldogs predicted to win by 4 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: +4.2

3/3 match predictions correct
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