# Bulldogs v Sea Eagles — NRL Round 21 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bulldogs 42 – 4 Sea Eagles

_Bulldogs muzzle Sea Eagles._

Half time: 12 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bulldogs 62% / Sea Eagles 38% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 27 July, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Bulldogs: Samuel Hughes (13' 1st), Jacob Kiraz (30' Tipped ⚡), Jacob Kiraz (54' Tipped ⚡), Bronson Xerri (58'), Bronson Xerri (64'), Enari Tuala (73'), Samuel Hughes (76' 1st) · Sea Eagles: Jason Saab (37' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 62% | Won |
| Sea Eagles | 38% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.2 predicted → 38 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canterbury Bulldogs vs Manly Sea Eagles Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 21 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Bulldogs 42–4 Sea Eagles in NRL Round 21 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Bulldogs winning by 4.2 points. They won by 38. That's the sort of gap that makes you go back and check the numbers weren't transposed, but no, 42-4 is right there on the board.

The 62% win call held up fine. The margin model didn't get within cooee of it. Combined total of 45 was actually a decent read, the game finished on 46, but the split between the two sides was nowhere close to what anyone expected walking in.

Some of that miss makes sense once you look at the shape of the sides. Sea Eagles came in rated higher in the halves (1409 to 1214) and out wide (983 to 1111), the kind of edges that usually translate into a tighter arm-wrestle at worst. Instead Bulldogs' forward platform, only marginally ahead pre-match at 1061 to 1053, turned into a 2,146 to 1,286 gap in run metres. That's not a marginal edge showing up, that's a rout in the collisions.

Samuel Hughes got things moving in the 13th minute, and Jacob Kiraz stretched it to 10-0 by the 29th. Jason Saab pulled one back for Sea Eagles just before the break to make it 12-4, and that's how it stood at half-time, competitive enough on the scoreboard even if the stats underneath were already lopsided.

Then the second half happened. Kiraz again in the 54th, Bronson Xerri twice inside six minutes either side of the hour mark, Enari Tuala in the 72nd, and Hughes back for his second in the 75th. Six tries in the second half to Sea Eagles' none. Whatever held the scoreline together at the break came apart entirely once Bulldogs got their hands on it in space.

The stat sheet backs up why. Bulldogs completed at 87% to Sea Eagles' 75%, coughed the ball up only 7 times against 12, and cut the line 11 times to 2. Sea Eagles missed 39 tackles, Bulldogs missed 29. When you're leaking line breaks and errors at that rate against a side offloading 21 times and racking up 550 post-contact metres, the tries were always going to keep coming.

Sea Eagles weren't without answers early. They came in as the form side on paper, a shade better across most of the last-five averages, and they did win the territory battle emphatically, out-kicking Bulldogs 911 metres to 763. Problem is territory means nothing if you can't hold the ball or make a tackle when it counts, and 12 errors against 39 missed tackles undid all that good kicking.

So the model's instincts were mostly sound: pick the right team, get the total roughly right. It just had no way of seeing a 38-point blowout coming from a side it only rated 60 points better on paper. Bulldogs covered the 2.5 handily, the over got home, and the margin number is the one going in the bin.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 12 | 30 | 42 |
| Sea Eagles | 4 | 0 | 4 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Bulldogs | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **56%** | Possession | 44% |
| **87%** | Completion rate | 75% |
| **2,146** | Run metres | 1,286 |
| **550** | Post-contact metres | 433 |
| **11** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **39** | Tackle breaks | 29 |
| **21** | Offloads | 8 |
| **89.6%** | Effective tackle % | 83.7% |
| **29** | Missed tackles | 39 |
| **7** | Errors | 12 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **4** |
| 763 | Kick metres | **911** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 62% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.2 but the actual margin was 38 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 46, within 1 points. Bulldogs led 12–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 38. The model went 5/16 on this match. Bulldogs covered the 2.5-point line. The over 43.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (422 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Bulldogs's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Bulldogs have a 56% win rate under this referee. Bulldogs's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 13' Try — Samuel Hughes (Bulldogs) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 29' Try — Jacob Kiraz (Bulldogs) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 37' Try — Jason Saab (Sea Eagles) — 12-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 54' Try — Jacob Kiraz (Bulldogs) — 16-4 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 58' Try — Bronson Xerri (Bulldogs) — 22-4 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 64' Try — Bronson Xerri (Bulldogs) — 28-4 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 72' Try — Enari Tuala (Bulldogs) — 34-4 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 75' Try — Samuel Hughes (Bulldogs) — 40-4 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.60 (edge +0.3%) — model probability 61.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 4 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Bulldogs are the call at 62%, but Sea Eagles stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Bulldogs sit 60 ELO points clear, 1566 to 1506.

Bulldogs own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Bulldogs by 4.2, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Bulldogs, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Sea Eagles have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Bulldogs took the most recent meeting 13-12 in 2026 Round 16.

Bulldogs have lost 3 straight. Sea Eagles have won 3 straight; Sea Eagles have put up 137 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Bulldogs 2nd against Sea Eagles 7th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Bulldogs 3 · Sea Eagles 7 |
| Last meeting | Bulldogs 13-12 |
| Bulldogs last 4 | WLLL · 78 for, 100 against |
| Bulldogs at home | 9-4 this season |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWW · 137 for, 106 against |
| Sea Eagles away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Bulldogs 2nd · Sea Eagles 7th |
| Finals odds | Bulldogs 100% · Sea Eagles 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Bulldogs

**Ashley Klein** — 422 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 23W–18L | 56% |
| Sea Eagles | 20W–20L | 50% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Bulldogs hold a 6-point edge: 23W–18L (56%) vs Sea Eagles's 20W–20L (50%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bulldogs | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 16.0pts | Avg Score | 21.2pts |
| 14.8pts | Avg Conceded | 18.4pts |
| 1.2pts | Avg Margin | 2.8pts |
| 1831.2m | Run Metres | 1730.8m |
| 3.8 | Line Breaks | 5.4 |
| 366.2 | Tackles | 360.8 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 11.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 3W–2L | 16.0 |
| Sea Eagles | 3W–2L | 21.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sea Eagles lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R16 | Bulldogs | 13 – 12 | Sea Eagles |
| 2024 | FW1 | Bulldogs | 22 – 24 | Sea Eagles |
| 2024 | R26 | Bulldogs | 22 – 34 | Sea Eagles |
| 2023 | R26 | Bulldogs | 24 – 42 | Sea Eagles |
| 2023 | R1 | Sea Eagles | 31 – 6 | Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bulldogs' best path is the middle: NRL's 6th-ranked middle attack (1.65 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 9th there (1.53 conceded/game). Key man: Tracey, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Sea Eagles' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.59 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 8th there (1.12 conceded/game). Key man: Garrick, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bulldogs | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.12/g (def 8th) | 1.59/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.06/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.65/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 0.88/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.82/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.53/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 1.18/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 0.88/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.41/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.94/g (def 6th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bulldogs | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 5 | 5 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 189m/g | 186m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3/g | 3.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.2% | 87.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bulldogs | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 30 · 32 | 46 · 36 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 804m/g | 740m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.3/g | 13.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.8/g | 3.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.1% | 80.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bulldogs | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 9 | 10 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 457m/g | 523m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.5/g | 7.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89% | 89.5% |

**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14% · Fullbacks 0.49/g (lg 0.43) +14% · Wingers 1.39/g (lg 1.25) +11%
**Who scores on Bulldogs** — 2nd Rows 0.52/g (lg 0.44) +18% · Centres 0.77/g (lg 0.68) +13% · Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.21) +10%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 2 | Jacob Kiraz | WG | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·3·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.96 AI 30% ✓ Scored | 🏉 30' 54' |
| 3 | Bronson Xerri | CE | 6 in 16g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 36% | — | 🏉 58' 64' |
| 4 | Stephen Crichton | CE | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/7g | 1/1g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Enari Tuala | WG | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/1g | 30% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 6 | Matt Burton | 5/8 | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Galvin | HB | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 17% | — | — |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | HK | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/11g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Samuel Hughes | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 5% | — | 🏉 13' 76' |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | 2R | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/10g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 7 in 13g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | LK | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | INT | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 1/6g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Harry Hayes | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Curran | INT | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Bailey Hayward | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lehi Hopoate | FB | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 9 in 13g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·2·0·0·1·0·1) | 9/6g | 0/1g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 37' |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 12 in 16g | 8/10g (1·2·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Tom Trbojevic | CE | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 14/12g | 1/8g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Reuben Garrick | WG | 12 in 17g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·2·1) | 8/8g | 0/2g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.18 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/19g | 1/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans | HB | 4 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 11/26g | 3/20g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Matthew Lodge | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Jazz Tevaga | HK | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Siosiua Taukeiaho | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 3/45g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 3/8g | 1/1g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 40% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/2g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 1/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Corey Waddell | INT | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Ethan Bullemor | INT | 3 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 1/1g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bulldogs 1566 · Sea Eagles 1506 · ELO difference: 60 in favour of Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Bulldogs | Sea Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1061 (best 1250) | 1053 (best 1285) | Bulldogs +8 |
| Backs | 983 (best 1097) | 1111 (best 1159) | Sea Eagles +128 |
| Halves | 1214 (best 1214) | 1409 (best 1409) | Sea Eagles +195 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 1040 | Bulldogs +160 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Bulldogs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | — |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Bulldogs |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Bulldogs |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)