# Cowboys v Dragons — NRL Round 21 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Cowboys 38 – 32 Dragons

_Cowboys wrangle a gallant Dragons._

Half time: 28 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Cowboys 63% / Dragons 37% · Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville · Fri, 25 July, 06:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Cowboys: Zac Laybutt (5' 1st Tipped ⚡), Tom Dearden (11' Tipped ⚡), Coen Hess (34'), Scott Drinkwater (38' Tipped ⚡), Jeremiah Nanai (40'), Tom Dearden (71' Tipped ⚡), Jaxon Purdue (75') · Dragons: Tyrell Sloan (18' Tipped ⚡), Mathew Feagai (27'), Corey Allan (55'), Tyrell Sloan (59' Tipped ⚡), Jacob Liddle (64'), Jacob Liddle (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 63% | Won |
| Dragons | 37% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.7 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Queensland Cowboys vs St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 21 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Cowboys 38–32 Dragons in NRL Round 21 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Cowboys 28, Dragons 12. That was the picture at half-time at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, built on four tries in the opening 40 minutes from Zac Laybutt, Tom Dearden, Coen Hess and Scott Drinkwater, with Jeremiah Nanai grabbing one right on the stroke of the break to make it a 16-point buffer. Cowboys had scored five times before the Dragons had properly found their footing.

Then the second half arrived and the Dragons decided the scoreboard was a suggestion rather than a fact. Corey Allan crossed at 55', Tyrell Sloan got his second at 58', and Jacob Liddle piled in at 64' to drag it back to 28-24. Suddenly a laugher was a genuine contest. Cowboys steadied through Dearden's second try and Jaxon Purdue to push the margin back to 12, but Liddle's second try at 77' had the Dragons within 8 points with barely three minutes left. Cowboys held on, 38-32.

The stat sheet tells you why it was that close. Dragons had 55% of the ball and completed at 91% against the Cowboys' 78%, and they piled up 678 post-contact metres to the Cowboys' 521 while busting 34 tackle breaks to 25 and offloading 14 times to 6. That's a side that kept the footy alive in contact and made the Cowboys work for every tackle. Fourteen errors from the home side against just four from the Dragons is the kind of gap that should have cost them the game outright.

What saved the Cowboys was efficiency in the moments that counted. Nine line breaks to six, and they made theirs count for tries when it mattered, particularly in that first-half blitz. The Dragons had the meat of the possession and the cleaner completion rate, kicked for 611 metres to control territory, but couldn't turn the balance of play into the scoreboard advantage those numbers usually buy.

The positional read explains some of it too. Dragons went in rated stronger up front (1167 to 1043) and at hooker (1124 to 958), and that shows in the post-contact and offload numbers, they were the harder side to bring down. But the Cowboys' halves rating of 1272 against 1065 is where the game was actually decided, that first-half scoring spree had Dearden and Drinkwater running the show while the Dragons were still finding a way in.

Missed tackles told the same story from the other end, Cowboys leaking 34 to the Dragons' 25 and conceding 10 penalties to 5, which is exactly how a 28-12 lead turns into an 8-point squeaker by the death.

Alphr's model had Cowboys by 3.7 points pre-match, and the final margin of 6 wasn't far off that read at all. The total was the miss, 70 points landing 27 higher than the projected 43, which tracks given how alive the Dragons stayed right into the last five minutes. Model went 6 from 16 on this one, but the shape of the result, close margin, Cowboys covering the 4.5, was right there in the pre-match numbers.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 28 | 10 | 38 |
| Dragons | 12 | 20 | 32 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Cowboys | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 45% | Possession | **55%** |
| 78% | Completion rate | **91%** |
| **1,863** | Run metres | 1,772 |
| 521 | Post-contact metres | **678** |
| **9** | Line breaks | 6 |
| 25 | Tackle breaks | **34** |
| 6 | Offloads | **14** |
| 87.0% | Effective tackle % | **90.0%** |
| 34 | Missed tackles | **25** |
| 14 | Errors | **4** |
| 10 | Penalties conceded | **5** |
| 455 | Kick metres | **611** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Cowboys to win at 63% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Cowboys by 3.7 vs the actual margin of 6 points. The game's 70 points came in 27 points higher than the predicted 43. The model went 6/16 on this match. Cowboys covered the 4.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The combined score of 70 points was 27 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Zac Laybutt (Cowboys) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 10' Try — Tom Dearden (Cowboys) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 18' Try — Tyrell Sloan (Dragons) — 12-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 26' Try — Mathew Feagai (Dragons) — 12-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 33' Try — Coen Hess (Cowboys) — 16-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 38' Try — Scott Drinkwater (Cowboys) — 22-12 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 40' Try — Jeremiah Nanai (Cowboys) — 28-12 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 55' Try — Corey Allan (Dragons) — 28-16 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 58' Try — Tyrell Sloan (Dragons) — 28-20 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 64' Try — Jacob Liddle (Dragons) — 28-24 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 70' Try — Tom Dearden (Cowboys) — 32-26 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 75' Try — Jaxon Purdue (Cowboys) — 38-26 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 77' Try — Jacob Liddle (Dragons) — 38-30 · win-prob swing -3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Cowboys to win @ $1.55 (edge +2.8%) — model probability 63.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.3%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 4 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Cowboys are the call at 63%, but Dragons stay live at 37%.

On paper Dragons shade it, ahead on 2 of 7 factors including Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The model still sides with Cowboys, which says Halves Control carry the most weight. The margin model has Cowboys by 3.7, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Cowboys, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Cowboys have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Cowboys took the most recent meeting 32-0 in 2026 Round 5.

Cowboys have put up 120 points in four games. Dragons have lost 4 straight; Dragons have leaked 134 in their last four; Dragons are 2-10 on the road this year. Cowboys have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Cowboys 13th against Dragons 11th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Cowboys 8 · Dragons 2 |
| Last meeting | Cowboys 32-0 |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWWL · 120 for, 89 against |
| Cowboys at home | 5-7 this season |
| Dragons last 4 | LLLL · 54 for, 134 against |
| Dragons away | 2-10 this season |
| Ladder | Cowboys 13th · Dragons 11th |
| Finals odds | Cowboys 0% · Dragons 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 16W–21L | 43% |
| Dragons | 15W–23L | 39% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins, Cowboys 16W–21L (43%) and Dragons 15W–23L (39%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Cowboys get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Dragons's +0.3.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cowboys | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 18.0pts | Avg Score | 23.6pts |
| 29.4pts | Avg Conceded | 25.8pts |
| -11.4pts | Avg Margin | -2.2pts |
| 1656.0m | Run Metres | 1668.0m |
| 4.6 | Line Breaks | 4.4 |
| 361.0 | Tackles | 356.6 |
| 15.0 | Errors | 9.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 1W–4L | 18.0 |
| Dragons | 1W–4L | 23.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Cowboys lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R5 | Dragons | 0 – 32 | Cowboys |
| 2024 | R3 | Dragons | 24 – 46 | Cowboys |
| 2023 | R11 | Cowboys | 42 – 22 | Dragons |
| 2022 | R20 | Dragons | 8 – 34 | Cowboys |
| 2022 | R14 | Cowboys | 31 – 12 | Dragons |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Cowboys' best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 10th there (1.12 conceded/game). Key man: Derby, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 8th-ranked left edge attack (1.29 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 17th there (1.78 conceded/game). Key man: Allan, 1 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Cowboys | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.06/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.78/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.29/g (att 8th) · concedes 1/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.17/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.72/g (def 11th) | 1.41/g (att 9th) · concedes 2/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.33/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.39/g (def 15th (weak)) | 0.82/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.12/g (def 10th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Cowboys | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 12th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 13 | 8 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 224m/g | 159m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.2/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.6% | 86.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Cowboys | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 45 · 49 | 41 · 44 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 750m/g | 745m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.9/g | 14.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.6/g | 3.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75.4% | 80.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Cowboys | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 21 | 7 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 441m/g | 481m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.3/g | 6.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.8% | 92.4% |

**Who scores on Dragons** — Five-Eighths 0.4/g (lg 0.27) +48% · 2nd Rows 0.62/g (lg 0.45) +38% · Fullbacks 0.58/g (lg 0.43) +35%
**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.26/g (lg 0.16) +63% · Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Five-Eighths 0.34/g (lg 0.27) +26%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Queensland Country Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 8 in 18g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·2·1·0·1) | 5/8g | 19/65g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' |
| 2 | Robert Derby | WG | 9 in 16g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/8g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.84 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Jaxon Purdue | CE | 9 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/15g | 31% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 4 | Zac Laybutt | CE | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/9g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 39% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' |
| 5 | Braidon Burns | WG | 2 in 7g | 5/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/6g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.91 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Thomas Duffy | 5/8 | 0 in 7g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Tom Dearden | HB | 5 in 16g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/6g | 19/49g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' 71' |
| 8 | Harrison Edwards | PR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/17g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 18/63g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Griffin Neame | PR | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/46g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | John Bateman | 2R | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/9g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Jeremiah Nanai | 2R | 6 in 15g | 6/10g (2·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 25/39g | 40% | — | 🏉 40' |
| 13 | Reuben Cotter | LK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 4/40g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Karl Lawton | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/7g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Kaiden Lahrs | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Kai O'Donnell | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 3% | — | — |
| 17 | Coen Hess | INT | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 6/50g | 4% | — | 🏉 34' |

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 6 in 17g | 4/10g (0·1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 0/2g | 30% | — | — |
| 2 | Tyrell Sloan | WG | 13 in 14g | 9/10g (2·1·0·0·2·0·0·2·1·1) | 2/4g | 0/1g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.68 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' 59' |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/9g | 2/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 4 | Mathew Feagai | CE | 0 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 18% | — | 🏉 27' |
| 5 | Corey Allan | WG | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 20% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 6 | Lyhkan King-Togia | 5/8 | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 6 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/5g | 1/2g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.80 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Emre Guler | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Luciano Leilua | 2R | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 3/13g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Jaydn Su'A | 2R | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 2/7g | 2/4g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.50 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | LK | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 1/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 6 in 17g | 3/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 24% | — | 🏉 64' 78' |
| 15 | Blake Lawrie | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Hamish Stewart | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Michael Molo | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Cowboys 1369 · Dragons 1366 · ELO difference: 3 in favour of Cowboys

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Cowboys | Dragons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1043 (best 1241) | 1167 (best 1242) | Dragons +124 |
| Backs | 1006 (best 1090) | 991 (best 1122) | Cowboys +15 |
| Halves | 1272 (best 1272) | 1065 (best 1065) | Cowboys +207 |
| Hooker | 958 | 1124 | Dragons +166 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dragons |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Cowboys |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dragons |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — Cowboys predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)