# Cowboys v Dragons — NRL Round 21 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Cowboys v Dragons
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Queensland Country Bank Stadium · Round 21

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Cowboys to win @ $1.55 (edge +2.8%) — model probability 63.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.3%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 4 · Predicted total: 43

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cowboys | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 18.0pts | Avg Score | 23.6pts |
| 29.4pts | Avg Conceded | 25.8pts |
| -11.4pts | Avg Margin | -2.2pts |
| 1656.0m | Run Metres | 1668.0m |
| 4.6 | Line Breaks | 4.4 |
| 361.0 | Tackles | 356.6 |
| 15.0 | Errors | 9.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 1W–4L | 18.0 |
| Dragons | 1W–4L | 23.6 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r21-cowboys-v-dragons
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-05 03:31 UTC