Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Cowboys to win at 63% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Cowboys by 3.7 vs the actual margin of 6 points. The game's 70 points came in 27 points higher than the predicted 43. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The combined score of 70 points was 27 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Cowboys
63%
Dragons
37%
AI Match Overview
Cowboys hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Dragons are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Cowboys ahead on 2 of 7 key factors including Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model predicts Cowboys by 3.7 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Cowboys to Win @1.55
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.8%
Line / Spread
Cowboys -4.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.8%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+15.3%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Cowboys | W L L L L | 18.0 |
Dragons | W L L L L | 23.6 |
Avg Conceded
29.4
Cowboys
25.8
Dragons
Avg Margin
-11.4
Cowboys
-2.2
Dragons
Run Metres
1656
Cowboys
1668
Dragons
Line Breaks
4.6
Cowboys
4.4
Dragons
Referee Indicator
BalancedGrant Atkins
318 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins, Cowboys 14W–18L (44%) and Dragons 15W–23L (39%).
Avg Total
43.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away. Cowboys get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Dragons's -0.2.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Cowboys predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +3.7
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.