NRL | Round 21

alphr.com.au

NQL
Cowboys
VS
SGI
Dragons
QUEENSLAND COUNTRY BANK STADIUM, TOWNSVILLE • FRIDAY 25 JULY, 6:00 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Grant Atkins officiated this match (312 career games). The combined score of 70 points was 27 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Cowboys to win at 63% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Cowboys by 3.7 vs the actual margin of 6 points. The game's 70 points came in 27 points higher than the predicted 43. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

63%CowboysFavourite

Cowboys

63%

Dragons

37%

✨

AI Match Overview

Cowboys hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Dragons are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Cowboys ahead on 2 of 7 key factors including Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model predicts Cowboys by 3.7 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Cowboys to Win @1.55

Winner ✓

Edge

+2.8%

✓

Line / Spread

Cowboys -4.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+2.8%

✓

Total Points

Under 48.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+15.3%

✗

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Cowboys
WLLLL
18.0
Dragons
WLLLL
23.6

Avg Conceded

29.4

Cowboys

25.8

Dragons

Avg Margin

-11.4

Cowboys

-2.2

Dragons

Run Metres

1656

Cowboys

1668

Dragons

Line Breaks

4.6

Cowboys

4.4

Dragons

Referee IndicatorAI
Balanced record
Grant Atkins312 games since 2013

Each team's win rate when Grant Atkins refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

NQL
42%13W 18L
SGI
42%15W 21L

Both sides have a similar record when Grant Atkins officiates — Cowboys 13W–18L (42%) and Dragons 15W–21L (42%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 42.8 pts, sitting close to the league average.

Avg Total

42.8 pts

Home Win %

55%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Cowboys lead 5-0
Apr 2026NQL 32 - 0 SGI
Mar 2024NQL 46 - 24 SGI
May 2023NQL 42 - 22 SGI
Jul 2022NQL 34 - 8 SGI
Jun 2022NQL 31 - 12 SGI
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

NQL
1369Overall1366
SGI
ELO difference: +3 in favour of Cowboys

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1043Forwards1167
Best: 1241SGI +124Best: 1242
1006Backs991
Best: 1090NQL +15Best: 1122
1272Halves1065
Best: 1272NQL +207Best: 1065
958Hooker1124
SGI +166

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

NQL
Stat
SGI
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
18.0pts
Avg Score
23.6pts
29.4pts
Avg Conceded
25.8pts
-11.4pts
Avg Margin
-2.2pts
1656.0m
Run Metres
1668.0m
4.6
Line Breaks
4.4
361.0
Tackles
356.6
15.0
Errors
9.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
—
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Dragons
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Cowboys
4
Halves Control9.0%
Cowboys
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
—
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
—
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
—

Model Confidence

63%

Cowboys predicted to win by 4 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: +3.7

2/3 match predictions correct
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