# Rabbitohs v Sharks — NRL Round 21 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Rabbitohs 12 – 14 Sharks

_Sharks hit back to devour Rabbitohs._

Half time: 6 – 2 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Rabbitohs 33% / Sharks 67% · Polytec Stadium, Gosford · Sat, 26 July, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Rabbitohs: Tyrone Munro (39' 1st Tipped 🎯), Tevita Tatola (79') · Sharks: Ronaldo Mulitalo (43' Tipped ⚡), Blayke Brailey (61')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 67% | Won |
| Rabbitohs | 33% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.6 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Cronulla Sharks Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 21 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Rabbitohs 12–14 Sharks in NRL Round 21 at Polytec Stadium, Gosford. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Souths did plenty right at Polytec Stadium and still finished with nothing to show for it. Tyrone Munro opened the scoring in the 39th minute to put the Rabbitohs up 6-2 at the break, and for a stretch they looked the tidier, sharper side. It just didn't hold.

The completion numbers back that up. The Rabbitohs finished at 80% with 11 errors, the Sharks at 81% with 12, near enough a wash. Where Souths actually had the edge was in attack: four line breaks to two, and 944 kick metres to the Sharks' 632. That's a side controlling field position through the boot, the kind of platform you'd normally build a win on.

But 42% possession is a hard number to overcome, and it only got harder as the game wore on. Two minutes after Munro's try, Ronaldo Mulitalo crossed to level it at 6-6. Jack Wighton was sin-binned in the 45th minute, and while the scoreboard didn't move straight away, losing a man for ten minutes against a side already running more of the ball is never going to help. By the 60th minute Blayke Brailey had scored to make it 12-6, and Souths were chasing a game that had slipped away from them territorially even while they kept the completion rate respectable.

The collision stats explain a lot of it. The Sharks ran for 1,855 metres to the Rabbitohs' 1,305, and post-contact it was 630 to 425, a gap that size usually means one pack is winning the gain-line on repeat. Cronulla also busted 36 tackles to 21 and offloaded eight times to four, which is how you keep sets alive against a defence that missed 36 tackles compared to the Sharks' 21. Ten penalties conceded to just two didn't help Souths either, handing back field position every time they threatened to build some pressure of their own.

Tevita Tatola's try in the 79th minute got the Rabbitohs back within two, 10-14, but it came too late to change anything. Final score: Sharks 14, Rabbitohs 12, the visitors completing the second-half turnaround after trailing at the break.

None of this should surprise anyone who'd looked at the sheet beforehand. The Sharks came in with a halves rating of 1205 against the Rabbitohs' 961, and that gap in structure and kicking game showed up in territory and go-forward across the night, even with Souths winning the kick-metres count. Form lined up too: Cronulla arrived on three wins from their last five with a positive average margin, while South Sydney were winless in the same stretch and conceding almost 32 points a game on average. They conceded nowhere near that here, which says something for their defensive effort in a losing cause, even if it wasn't quite enough to hold out a side that had the wood on them positionally from the start.

Alphr's model had the Sharks winning by 6.6 points and gave them a 67% chance before kick-off. The Sharks got there by two, in a game that finished 28 points under the model's projected total of 54.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Sharks | 2 | 12 | 14 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 42% | Possession | **58%** |
| 80% | Completion rate | **81%** |
| 1,305 | Run metres | **1,855** |
| 425 | Post-contact metres | **630** |
| **4** | Line breaks | 2 |
| 21 | Tackle breaks | **36** |
| 4 | Offloads | **8** |
| 89.6% | Effective tackle % | **92.1%** |
| 36 | Missed tackles | **21** |
| **11** | Errors | 12 |
| 10 | Penalties conceded | **2** |
| **944** | Kick metres | 632 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 67% probability. The predicted margin of 6.6 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The game's 26 points came in 28 points lower than the predicted 54. Sharks trailed 6–2 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 12–14. The model went 5/16 on this match. Sharks covered the 11.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Belinda Sharpe officiated this match (23 career games). The combined score of 26 points was 16 points below Belinda Sharpe's career average of 42. Sharks's victory aligns with Belinda Sharpe's historical trend, Sharks have a 33% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 39' Try — Tyrone Munro (Rabbitohs) — 6-2 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 42' Try — Ronaldo Mulitalo (Sharks) — 6-6 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 45' Sin Bin — Jack Wighton (Rabbitohs) — 6-6 · win-prob swing -12 pts
- 60' Try — Blayke Brailey (Sharks) — 6-12 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 79' Try — Tevita Tatola (Rabbitohs) — 10-14 · win-prob swing +4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.23 (edge -16.6%) — model probability 67.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks +11.5 @ $1.91 (edge -16.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 7 · Predicted total: 54

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sharks here: 67% to see off Rabbitohs. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sharks sit 232 ELO points clear, 1545 to 1313. Form leans Sharks' way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Rabbitohs.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Sharks by 6.6, with the two sides combining for about 54. Sharks to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Sharks have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Sharks took the most recent meeting 32-16 in 2026 Round 22.

Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Rabbitohs 15th against Sharks 8th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Rabbitohs 3 · Sharks 7 |
| Last meeting | Sharks 32-16 |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WWWL · 86 for, 70 against |
| Rabbitohs at home | 6-6 this season |
| Sharks last 4 | WWWL · 90 for, 50 against |
| Sharks away | 6-8 this season |
| Ladder | Rabbitohs 15th · Sharks 8th |
| Finals odds | Rabbitohs 0% · Sharks 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sharks

**Belinda Sharpe** — 23 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Belinda Sharpe | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 1W–4L | 20% |
| Sharks | 1W–2L | 33% |

Avg total: 42.1 pts · Home win %: 52% · Home bias: Neutral

Sharks hold a 13-point edge: 1W–2L (33%) vs Rabbitohs's 1W–4L (20%). Small sample (3 games for Sharks).

Penalises away teams more, 5.7 against home vs 6.2 against away. Sharks get a +4.3 penalty advantage under Belinda Sharpe vs Rabbitohs's -3.4. 67% of his 12 career sin bins go to home teams, unusual.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 18.4pts | Avg Score | 23.8pts |
| 31.8pts | Avg Conceded | 22.4pts |
| -13.4pts | Avg Margin | 1.4pts |
| 1502.0m | Run Metres | 1791.0m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 5.4 |
| 373.4 | Tackles | 355.2 |
| 9.6 | Errors | 11.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 0W–5L | 18.4 |
| Sharks | 3W–2L | 23.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Sharks | 32 – 16 | Rabbitohs |
| 2026 | R10 | Rabbitohs | 36 – 12 | Sharks |
| 2025 | R3 | Sharks | 27 – 12 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R22 | Sharks | 20 – 6 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R6 | Rabbitohs | 22 – 34 | Sharks |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 13th there (1.22 conceded/game). Key man: Johnston, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Sharks' best path is the middle: NRL's 6th-ranked middle attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 17th there (2.33 conceded/game). Key man: Kennedy, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Rabbitohs | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.44/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.06/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.56/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.22/g (def 11th) |
| Middle | 1.06/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2.33/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.67/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.39/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 1.67/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.94/g (def 6th (strong)) | 0.83/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.22/g (def 13th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Rabbitohs | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 21 | 11 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 155m/g | 185m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.8/g | 2.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.6% | 87% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Rabbitohs | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 37 · 41 | 42 · 39 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 640m/g | 726m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.3/g | 17.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.1/g | 2.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.1% | 80.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Rabbitohs | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 13 | 17 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 493m/g | 533m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.2/g | 9.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.6% | 90.7% |

**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36% · Centres 0.77/g (lg 0.68) +13%
**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.44/g (lg 0.26) +69% · Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.14) +43% · Halfbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.21) +38%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Polytec Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jye Gray | FB | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 35% | — | — |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 12 in 10g | 12/10g (1·0·1·3·1·1·4·0·0·1) | 4/11g | 0/0g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.93 AI 79% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Isaiah Tass | CE | 5 in 18g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 4 | Tallis Duncan | CE | 5 in 18g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·2·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Tyrone Munro | WG | 4 in 7g | 7/10g (0·2·1·2·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 52% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 39' |
| 6 | Jack Wighton | 5/8 | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 11/21g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.00 AI 50% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Lewis Dodd | HB | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 2% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 9 | Siliva Havili | INT | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Sean Keppie | PR | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Euan Aitken | 2R | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/16g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Jai Arrow | 2R | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Lachlan Hubner | LK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Liam Le Blanc | INT | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Jacob Host | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Ryan Gray | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Ashton Ward | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 7 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 2/8g | 0/1g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 51% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | 3 in 6g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 7/6g | 0/0g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.61 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/10g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 6 in 17g | 5/10g (1·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 1/1g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.66 AI 29% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 5 in 18g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 5/6g | 0/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 5 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·1) | 1/8g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/1g | 6% | — | 🏉 61' |
| 10 | Oregon Kaufusi | PR | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Billy Burns | 2R | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/7g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 1/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Daniel Atkinson | INT | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Jesse Colquhoun | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Toby Rudolf | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Braden Uele | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Rabbitohs 1313 · Sharks 1545 · ELO difference: 232 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Rabbitohs | Sharks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1096 (best 1235) | 1002 (best 1304) | Rabbitohs +95 |
| Backs | 1112 (best 1165) | 1069 (best 1145) | Rabbitohs +42 |
| Halves | 961 (best 961) | 1205 (best 1205) | Sharks +244 |
| Hooker | 1195 | 1273 | Sharks +78 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sharks |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Sharks predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 54 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)