Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 67% probability. The predicted margin of 6.6 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The game's 26 points came in 28 points lower than the predicted 54. Sharks trailed 6–2 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 12–14. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Belinda Sharpe officiated this match (23 career games). The combined score of 26 points was 16 points below Belinda Sharpe's career average of 42. Sharks's victory aligns with Belinda Sharpe's historical trend, Sharks have a 33% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Rabbitohs
33%
Sharks
67%
AI Match Overview
Sharks are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Rabbitohs. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Sharks carry a 232-point ELO rating advantage (1545 vs 1313). Recent form favours Sharks with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Sharks by 6.6 points with a combined total of 54.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.23
Winner ✓
Edge
-16.6%
Line / Spread
Sharks +11.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-16.6%
Total Points
Over 48.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+15.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | L L L L L | 18.4 |
Sharks | W W W L L | 23.8 |
Avg Conceded
31.8
Rabbitohs
22.4
Sharks
Avg Margin
-13.4
Rabbitohs
1.4
Sharks
Run Metres
1502
Rabbitohs
1791
Sharks
Line Breaks
4.8
Rabbitohs
5.4
Sharks
Referee Indicator
Favours SharksBelinda Sharpe
23 career games · since 2019
Win rate when Belinda Sharpe refs each team (vs any opponent)
Sharks hold a 13-point edge: 1W–2L (33%) vs Rabbitohs's 1W–4L (20%). Small sample (3 games for Sharks).
Avg Total
42.1 pts
Home Win %
52%
Home Bias
Neutral
Pen / Game
11.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.52
SB Away %
33%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Penalises away teams more, 5.7 against home vs 6.2 against away. Sharks get a +4.3 penalty advantage under Belinda Sharpe vs Rabbitohs's -3.4. 67% of his 12 career sin bins go to home teams, unusual.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
67%
Sharks predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 54 · Line: -6.6
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