NRL | Round 21

alphr.com.au

PEN
Panthers
VS
WST
Wests Tigers
COMMBANK STADIUM, SYDNEY • SATURDAY 26 JULY, 5:30 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Peter Gough officiated this match (176 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 6 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Panthers's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend — Panthers have a 68% win rate under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 77% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 11.8 but the actual margin was 34 points. Panthers led 18–2 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 34. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

77%PanthersFavourite

Panthers

77%

Wests Tigers

23%

AI Match Overview

Panthers are clear favourites here at 77%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wests Tigers. The model sees Panthers ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Panthers carry a 263-point ELO rating advantage (1598 vs 1335). Recent form favours Panthers with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Wests Tigers. The margin model predicts Panthers by 11.8 points with a combined total of 45.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Panthers to Win @1.25

Winner ✓

Edge

-6.2%

Line / Spread

Panthers -10.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-6.2%

Total Points

Under 47.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+7.5%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Panthers
WWWWW
23.2
Wests Tigers
WWLLL
17.4

Avg Conceded

11.6

Panthers

25.2

Wests Tigers

Avg Margin

11.6

Panthers

-7.8

Wests Tigers

Run Metres

1753

Panthers

1577

Wests Tigers

Line Breaks

6.2

Panthers

4.4

Wests Tigers

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Panthers
Peter Gough176 games since 2016

Each team's win rate when Peter Gough refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

PEN
68%13W 6L
WST
35%8W 15L

When Peter Gough officiates, Panthers have won 13 of 19 games (68%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 8 from 23 (35%). That's a 33‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 44.3 pts, sitting close to the league average.

Avg Total

44.3 pts

Home Win %

53%

Home Bias

Neutral

H2H History (Last 5)Panthers lead 4-1
Jun 2025PEN 18 - 14 WST
Apr 2024PEN 22 - 6 WST
May 2023PEN 8 - 12 WST
Jul 2022PEN 18 - 16 WST
Aug 2021PEN 30 - 16 WST
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

PEN
1598Overall1335
WST
ELO difference: +263 in favour of Panthers

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1153Forwards1021
Best: 1374PEN +132Best: 1297
1167Backs1016
Best: 1241PEN +151Best: 1120
1132Halves981
Best: 1132PEN +150Best: 981
814Hooker1200
WST +386

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

PEN
Stat
WST
5.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
23.2pts
Avg Score
17.4pts
11.6pts
Avg Conceded
25.2pts
11.6pts
Avg Margin
-7.8pts
1752.6m
Run Metres
1577.2m
6.2
Line Breaks
4.4
385.4
Tackles
341.2
10.4
Errors
10.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Panthers
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Panthers
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Panthers
4
Halves Control9.0%
Panthers
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Panthers
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Panthers

Model Confidence

77%

Panthers predicted to win by 12 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: +11.8

3/3 match predictions correct
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