Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 77% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.8 but the actual margin was 34 points. Panthers led 18–2 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 34. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 6 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Panthers's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Panthers have a 70% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Panthers
77%
Wests Tigers
23%
AI Match Overview
Panthers are clear favourites here at 77%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wests Tigers. The model sees Panthers ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Panthers carry a 263-point ELO rating advantage (1598 vs 1335). Recent form favours Panthers with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Wests Tigers. The margin model predicts Panthers by 11.8 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.25
Winner ✓
Edge
-6.2%
Line / Spread
Panthers -10.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-6.2%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+7.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Panthers | W W W W W | 23.2 |
Wests Tigers | W W L L L | 17.4 |
Avg Conceded
11.6
Panthers
25.2
Wests Tigers
Avg Margin
11.6
Panthers
-7.8
Wests Tigers
Run Metres
1753
Panthers
1577
Wests Tigers
Line Breaks
6.2
Panthers
4.4
Wests Tigers
Referee Indicator
Favours PanthersPeter Gough
183 career games · since 2016
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Peter Gough officiates, Panthers have won 14 of 20 games (70%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 9 from 25 (36%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away. Wests Tigers get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Panthers's -0.7.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
77%
Panthers predicted to win by 12 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +11.8
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