# Raiders v Knights — NRL Round 21 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Raiders 44 – 18 Knights

_Raiders ransack Knights._

Half time: 18 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Raiders 74% / Knights 26% · GIO Stadium, Canberra · Sun, 27 July, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Raiders: Kaeo Weekes (10' 1st Tipped 🎯), Simi Sasagi (24' Tipped ⚡), Xavier Savage (38' Tipped ⚡), Tom Starling (46'), Matthew Timoko (54'), Noah Martin (67'), Matthew Timoko (72') · Knights: Kai Pearce-Paul (18'), Greg Marzhew (34'), Fletcher Hunt (40' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 74% | Won |
| Knights | 26% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.7 predicted → 26 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 21 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Raiders 44–18 Knights in NRL Round 21 at GIO Stadium, Canberra. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Raiders beat Knights 44-18 at GIO Stadium. Put that scoreline next to the half-time reading, 18-18, and the story splits in two.

For forty minutes this was even money. Kaeo Weekes opened it in the 9th, Kai Pearce-Paul hit back for the Knights in the 17th, and from there it was a genuine arm wrestle: Simi Sasagi, Greg Marzhew, Xavier Savage all crossed before the break, and Fletcher Hunt's try right on the stroke of half-time locked it up at 18-all. Four lead changes, one game tied. Then the Raiders scored five unanswered tries after the break, through Tom Starling, Matthew Timoko twice and Noah Martin, and turned a dead heat into a 26-point demolition.

The gap between the two halves shows up everywhere in the stat sheet. Raiders finished with 55% of the ball and completed at 80% to the Knights' 66%, and once the game opened up that discipline with the football told. Nine errors against fourteen doesn't sound like much until you're the side conceding an extra five sets a game in a match that stayed this fast.

Field position did plenty of the work too. Raiders kicked for 711 metres to the Knights' 398, a gap of more than 300 metres that kept Newcastle starting deeper and defending longer. Add 604 post-contact metres to 420, and seven line breaks to three, and the picture is a team getting quicker ball and better field position in the same afternoon.

Curiously the collision stats were tighter than the final margin suggests. Tackle breaks were almost dead level, 36 to 35, and the Knights actually edged the effective tackle percentage, 88.8% to 84.2%, while conceding fewer penalties, 2 to 6. Newcastle defended more efficiently with what they had. They just didn't have enough ball or enough go-forward to make it count, and the six offloads they trailed by (13 to 8) never turned into the second-phase points that might have kept them in it.

The pre-match numbers explain some of this without excusing the Knights' collapse after the break. Canberra's halves rating of 1395 dwarfed Newcastle's 770, the biggest gap of any position group in the match, and a spine mismatch like that tends to show up exactly when a game is up for grabs, which this one was for forty minutes. The Raiders' form line, five wins from five with an average margin of plus 12, also lines up with a team built to grind out the accompanying second half. The Knights arrived on one win from five and an average margin of minus 5, and that trend, not the scoreline, is closer to what actually happened before half-time evened out.

Alphr's model backed Raiders at 74% and got the winner right. It undercooked the margin badly, tipping a 9.7-point win in a game that finished 26, and picking a total of 42 in a contest that produced 62. Seven from sixteen on the prop markets isn't a number to hang a hat on, but the Raiders did clear the 13.5-point line comfortably in the end. The lesson here isn't the final margin, it's the shape: this was level footy for forty minutes, and the scoreboard only started telling the truth in the second half.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 18 | 26 | 44 |
| Knights | 18 | 0 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Raiders | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **55%** | Possession | 45% |
| **80%** | Completion rate | 66% |
| **1,697** | Run metres | 1,515 |
| **604** | Post-contact metres | 420 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **36** | Tackle breaks | 35 |
| 8 | Offloads | **13** |
| 84.2% | Effective tackle % | **88.8%** |
| **35** | Missed tackles | 36 |
| **9** | Errors | 14 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **2** |
| **711** | Kick metres | 398 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 74% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.7 but the actual margin was 26 points. The game's 62 points came in 21 points higher than the predicted 42. The model went 7/16 on this match. Raiders covered the 13.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (60 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 12 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Raiders's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Raiders have a 100% win rate under this referee. Raiders's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 9' Try — Kaeo Weekes (Raiders) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 17' Try — Kai Pearce-Paul (Knights) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 24' Try — Simi Sasagi (Raiders) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 34' Try — Greg Marzhew (Knights) — 12-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 37' Try — Xavier Savage (Raiders) — 16-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 40' Try — Fletcher Hunt (Knights) — 18-18 · win-prob swing -19 pts
- 46' Try — Tom Starling (Raiders) — 22-18 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 53' Try — Matthew Timoko (Raiders) — 28-18 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 66' Try — Noah Martin (Raiders) — 36-18 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 72' Try — Matthew Timoko (Raiders) — 42-18 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.20 (edge -11.0%) — model probability 74.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders -13.5 @ $1.91 (edge -11.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +7.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 10 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Raiders here: 74% to see off Knights. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Raiders sit 292 ELO points clear, 1666 to 1375. Form leans Raiders' way: 5 from their last 5, against 1 for Knights.

Raiders own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Raiders by 9.7, with the two sides combining for about 42. Raiders to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Knights have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 30-24 in 2026 Round 23.

Raiders have lost 3 straight; Raiders have leaked 133 in their last four; Raiders are 11-3 at home this year. Knights have lost 9 straight; Knights have leaked 190 in their last four. Raiders have won 6 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Raiders 1st against Knights 14th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Raiders 4 · Knights 6 |
| Last meeting | Knights 30-24 |
| Raiders last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 133 against |
| Raiders at home | 11-3 this season |
| Knights last 4 | LLLL · 42 for, 190 against |
| Knights away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Raiders 1st · Knights 14th |
| Finals odds | Raiders 100% · Knights 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Raiders

**Wyatt Raymond** — 60 career games since 2024.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 6W–0L | 100% |
| Knights | 3W–7L | 30% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Raiders have won 6 of 6 games (100%), significantly stronger than Knights's 3 from 10 (30%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (6 games for Raiders).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Raiders | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 28.4pts | Avg Score | 16.2pts |
| 16.4pts | Avg Conceded | 21.2pts |
| 12.0pts | Avg Margin | -5.0pts |
| 1849.0m | Run Metres | 1762.4m |
| 6.6 | Line Breaks | 4.2 |
| 357.2 | Tackles | 383.2 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 9.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 5W–0L | 28.4 |
| Knights | 1W–4L | 16.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Knights lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Raiders | 24 – 30 | Knights |
| 2026 | R5 | Knights | 32 – 12 | Raiders |
| 2025 | R17 | Knights | 18 – 22 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R18 | Raiders | 12 – 16 | Knights |
| 2024 | R1 | Knights | 12 – 28 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Raiders' best path is the middle: NRL's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.06 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 12th there (1.72 conceded/game). Key man: Strange, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 15th-ranked left edge attack (0.89 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 16th there (1.67 conceded/game). Key man: Marzhew, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Raiders | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.56/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 16th (weak)) | 0.89/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 0.78/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.06/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.06/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.06/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.72/g (def 12th) |
| Right | 1.22/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.78/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.67/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 0.83/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Raiders | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 6 | 11 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 165m/g | 197m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.5/g | 4.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.7% | 88.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Raiders | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 40 · 40 | 27 · 27 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 695m/g | 806m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.7/g | 22.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.1/g | 3.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.5% | 75.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Raiders | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 28 · 13 | 6 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 607m/g | 529m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.2/g | 6.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.2% | 91% |

**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.21) +5% · Props 0.16/g (lg 0.16) +0% · Five-Eighths 0.25/g (lg 0.26) -4%
**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.27/g (lg 0.16) +69% · Centres 0.91/g (lg 0.68) +34% · Five-Eighths 0.3/g (lg 0.26) +15%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 7 in 18g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·3·0) | 3/5g | 9/20g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 52% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 10' |
| 2 | Jed Stuart | WG | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·2) | 1/1g | 2/4g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.84 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 6 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 16/46g | 20% | — | 🏉 54' 72' |
| 4 | Simi Sasagi | CE | 4 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 2/14g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 41% ✓ Scored | 🏉 24' |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 10 in 17g | 6/10g (0·1·3·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 16/28g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.78 AI 38% ✓ Scored | 🏉 38' |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 8 in 18g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·1) | 1/3g | 5/18g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 3/34g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Papalii | PR | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 8/24g | 30/128g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 5/53g | 10% | — | 🏉 46' |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 10/90g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 10 in 15g | 7/10g (2·2·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 23/57g | 42% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 7/12g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Corey Horsburgh | LK | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/41g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | INT | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 2/8g | 7% | — | — |
| 15 | Noah Martin | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | 🏉 67' |
| 16 | Morgan Smithies | INT | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 1/19g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/28g | 4% | — | — |

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dane Gagai | FB | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 10/27g | 6/13g | 18% | — | — |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 9 in 13g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 5/7g | 1/3g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.07 AI 46% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Fletcher Hunt | CE | 3 in 7g | 3/7g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $19.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 40' |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/6g | 2/3g | 32% | — | 🏉 34' |
| 6 | Jackson Hastings | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Jack Cogger | HB | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Jayden Brailey | HK | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 1/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Leo Thompson | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 6% | — | 🏉 18' |
| 13 | Phoenix Crossland | LK | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Tyson Gamble | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Mat Croker | INT | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Tyson Frizell | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/20g | 0/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Hetherington | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Raiders 1666 · Knights 1375 · ELO difference: 292 in favour of Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Raiders | Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1162 (best 1351) | 1059 (best 1289) | Raiders +103 |
| Backs | 1087 (best 1200) | 1060 (best 1146) | Raiders +27 |
| Halves | 1395 (best 1395) | 770 (best 770) | Raiders +625 |
| Hooker | 998 | 1116 | Knights +118 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Raiders |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Raiders |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Raiders |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 74%** — Raiders predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)