# St Kilda v Richmond — AFL Round 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Kilda 135 – 53 Richmond

_St Kilda put Richmond to the sword._

Half time: 42 – 34 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Kilda 60% / Richmond 40% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 29 Mar, 04:15 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — St Kilda: Mason Wood (12' ×3 1st Tipped ⚡), Lance Collard (23' ×2), Max Hall (28' ×2), Jack Higgins (49' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Rowan Marshall (72'), Cooper Sharman (75' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Mitch Owens (82' ×4), Bradley Hill (90'), Isaac Keeler (73' Tipped ⚡), Darcy Wilson (75') · Richmond: Seth Campbell (35' ×2), Jacob Bauer (38' Tipped ⚡), Tom Brown (84'), Kamdyn McIntosh (63')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 60% | Won |
| Richmond | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.3 predicted → 82 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 3 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

St Kilda 135–53 Richmond in AFL Round 3 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Kilda 135, Richmond 53. Eighty-two points isn't a scoreline, it's a demolition job.

Here's the bit that complicates it though. Richmond actually won a handful of the numbers that are supposed to matter. More hit-outs, 42 to 28. More marks, 119 to 113. Better disposal efficiency, 72.9 per cent to St Kilda's 68.5. On paper Richmond used the ball cleaner and controlled the ruck contest. None of it stopped them getting flogged by 82 points at Marvel Stadium.

The scoring breakdown tells you where it actually happened, and it's not a straight line. St Kilda led 21-9 at quarter time, a handy start but nothing terminal. By half time it was 42-34, which means Richmond actually won the second term outright, 25 points to 21. This was a real contest for two quarters. Then the third term arrived and St Kilda scored 41 points to Richmond's 9, blowing the margin from 8 points to 40 in a single quarter. The last quarter was St Kilda 52 to Richmond 10, which padded the final margin but the contest was already decided by three-quarter time.

So the game wasn't a slow strangle. It was competitive, then it wasn't, in the space of one quarter.

What actually drove that swing sits outside the headline efficiency numbers. St Kilda won clearances 38 to 33 and turned that advantage into territory, going inside 50 fifty-six times to Richmond's 42.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 21 | 21 | 41 | 52 | 135 |
| Richmond | 9 | 25 | 9 | 10 | 53 |

**Key Match Stats**

| St Kilda | Stat | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| **409** | Disposals | 330 |
| **124** | Contested poss. | 113 |
| **38** | Clearances | 33 |
| **56** | Inside 50s | 42 |
| 113 | Marks | **119** |
| **21** | Marks inside 50 | 7 |
| **44** | Tackles | 41 |
| 28 | Hit-outs | **42** |
| **57** | Intercepts | 47 |
| 68.5% | Disposal eff. | **72.9%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Kilda to win at 60% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.3 but the actual margin was 82 points. The game's 188 points came in 30 points higher than the predicted 158. St Kilda led 42–34 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 82. The model went 1/3 on this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $1.24 (edge -20.8%) — model probability 59.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond -27.5 @ $1.91 (edge -20.8%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Richmond by 3 · Predicted total: 158

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 6 in 2g | 18/10g (3·0·1·2·0·1·3·2·2·4) | 10/7g | 75/53g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.75 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' 53' 72' |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 4 in 2g | 13/10g (1·2·3·0·0·0·1·2·2·2) | 12/12g | 73/70g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' 57' 78' |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 2 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/14g | 37/97g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Lance Collard | DEF | 2 in 1g | 2/4g (0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 25% | — | 🏉 23' 95' |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 2 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/2g | 5/28g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 2 in 2g | 2/2g (2·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 50% | — | 🏉 28' 67' |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 2 in 1g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·2·0·2) | 3/4g | 33/32g | 54% | — | 🏉 82' 87' 85' 91' |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 4/17g | 17/71g | 24% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Keeler | KF | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $17.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 73' |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 4/38g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Angus Hastie | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/6g (0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·3·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 19/19g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/66g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | no games | 14/10g (0·1·2·2·2·3·0·2·2·0) | 3/4g | 28/27g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 75' 77' |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 9/14g | 43% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 27/124g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jack Steele | MID | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·1·3·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 36/87g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jimmy Webster | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 3/97g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam O'Connell | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 0 in 2g | 10/10g (2·0·0·1·2·3·1·1·0·0) | 11/10g | 40/67g | 44% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Ryan Byrnes | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 4/34g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tobie Travaglia | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Zak Jones | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/11g | 10/44g | 14% | — | — |

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 4 in 2g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·2·2) | 0/2g | 1/2g | 46% | — | 🏉 35' 55' |
| – | Sam Lalor | FWD | 3 in 2g | 3/2g (2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 61% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Harry Armstrong | KF | 2 in 2g | 2/2g (0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 75% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 2 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/6g | 3/10g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Bauer | KF | 2 in 2g | 10/9g (0·1·2·1·2·0·2·1·1) | 4/2g | 5/3g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 38' |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 3/13g | 4/20g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Blight | DEF | 1 in 2g | 1/5g (0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 8/18g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Kamdyn McIntosh | MID | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/15g | 2/25g | 28% | — | 🏉 63' |
| – | Rhyan Mansell | FWD | 1 in 2g | 11/10g (1·2·3·0·1·0·2·1·1·0) | 0/5g | 1/7g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·3·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 19% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Tom Lynch | KF | 1 in 1g | 19/10g (3·3·3·1·2·2·1·3·0·1) | 26/12g | 56/24g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/5g | 14% | — | — |
| – | James Trezise | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 3/23g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Kaleb Smith | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/5g (0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 1/19g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/15g | 5/30g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 0 in 2g | 5/8g (0·0·3·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Thomson Dow | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 9/14g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/3g | 23% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Macrae ⚡ Under | 33.5 | $2.00 | 94% | 31 ✓ |
| Jack Sinclair ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $2.00 | 72% | 40 ✗ |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 29 ✗ |
| Jack Steele | 24.5 | $1.91 | 59% | 0 ✓ |
| Rowan Marshall | 21.5 | $1.86 | 55% | 23 ✗ |
| Marcus Windhager ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 75% | 19 ✓ |
| Mason Wood | 19.5 | $1.79 | 65% | 16 ✓ |
| Callum Wilkie | 18.5 | $1.84 | 52% | 13 ✓ |

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Short ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.78 | 68% | 26 ✗ |
| Tim Taranto | 24.5 | $1.95 | 59% | 20 ✓ |
| Jacob Hopper | 22.5 | $1.91 | 48% | 25 ✗ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 20.5 | $2.00 | 57% | 13 ✓ |
| Jack Ross | 18.5 | $1.91 | 55% | 21 ✗ |
| Kamdyn McIntosh ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 81% | 20 ✗ |
| Thomson Dow | 17.5 | $1.96 | 54% | 20 ✗ |
| Toby Nankervis | 16.5 | $1.90 | 41% | 21 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)